Downwards Revision to US GDP Sends Dow Spreads Lower

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Downwards Revision to US GDP Sends Dow Spreads Lower

Downwards Revision to US GDP Sends Dow Spreads Lower


A late afternoon look at the markets from David Choe, Research Analyst, IG Index.

For the latest Afternoon Trading Update see Spread Betting Daily.

Spread Betting News - 22 November 2011

16:00 update:

Wall Street fought hard to make headway this afternoon, but a downward revision to US GDP for the third quarter and continued Eurozone woes meant that many investors opted for an early exit well ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

By 3.45pm (London time), the Dow Jones was down 0.27% at 11,516.05, and the S&P 500 had lost 0.2% to 1190.37. In London, the FTSE 100 struggled to remain in positive territory, and was up 0.3% at 5238.47.

US GDP figures weaken

If there is one thing that indices spread betting investors didn't want this afternoon, it was a downward revision to US GDP data. However, we got exactly that. Third-quarter GDP growth for the US was cut from 2.5% to 2%, confounding the experts who had forecast that the figure would remain unchanged.

The revision (another, final revision will follow) saw inventories changed, with private inventories down to -1.55% from -1.08%, which rather dents the hopes of those expecting a fourth quarter rebound from the effects of business restocking.

With the news that the US budget 'super committee' (they might want to rename it given its obvious failure) has been unable to agree on any budget cuts, we can now expect substantial reductions in spending at the federal level, as automatic cuts kick in.

Spanish borrowing costs rise

Last week, the leader of the Spanish Popular Party (the victor of the weekend's elections) pleaded for more than just 'half an hour' from international bond markets in order to sort out Spain's fiscal problems.

It seems he got about 48 hours. An auction of three-month bonds saw yields spike to an average of 5.11%, more than double the rate paid at a previous auction. Given that we'll have to wait until mid-December before the new cabinet actually starts making decisions, traders can be forgiven for being picky about investing in Madrid's debt.

Without active and energetic support from the ECB, Spain remains stuck in the same mire as Greece, Portugal and Italy.

Still no relief for retailers

Retail shares are under heavy pressure on the FTSE today, following David Cameron's downbeat comments about the state of the UK economy.

Game Group, French Connection, JJB Sports and Supergroup have all seen their shares fall, as investors continue to flee the sector based on expectations of continued low levels of consumer spending.

While Thomas Cook might not be in the same sector as the aforementioned companies, its warning this morning served as an unpleasant reminder that spending their hard-earned cash is something that UK consumers won't be doing in significant quantities any time soon.

Homeserve gets no reprieve

The travails of home repair firm Homeserve continue, as the shares slump another 12% on the release of the company's half-year figures. The shares now stand at 219p, having been at 478p at the end of October before the company confessed that it had been forced to suspend its sales operations (which prompted its shares to drop precipitously).

Revenue for the six months to 30 September rose by 25% to £213 million, while pre-tax profit was 2% higher at £18.2 million. A reduction in marketing for the full year will see customer numbers drop by 5%, but the interim dividend was boosted from 3.3p to 3.63p.


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'Downwards Revision to US GDP Sends Dow Spreads Lower', Article by IG Index, last update: 22-Nov-11

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