A great sporting week will be topped by the final Grand Prix of the season on Sunday, where Felipe Massa has the opportunity to break the hearts of the nation and snatch the Championship from Lewis Hamilton. Buyers of Massa in the Championship index at 44 (60pts for the winner) will be hoping he does just that, although even if the Brazilian were to repeat his 2006 victory at his home circuit, buyers will require Hamilton to finish no higher than sixth place. Massa has had other success in Sao Paulo with Ferrari, finishing second to teammate Raikkonen last year. This is of significance to F1 spread punters – Massa must finish in the top two to give himself any chance of winning the title.
All spread bettors, particularly those betting on Sporting Index’s season points markets, will be interested to learn the outcome should the race finish as it did last year. Hamilton would finish on a season total of 96, Massa just one behind on 95 and Kubica and Raikkonen equal on 79. So Hamilton is in a better position than he found himself in at the same stage in 2007 and this should be of encouragement to all buyers of both Hamilton’s season points total (currently at 99-99.5) and Championship index (56-58, 60pts for winner).
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Formula One 17 Oct 08
Sixteen races down, two to go as the finale to the Formula One season approaches. The teams head to the Shanghai circuit in China this weekend with three drivers and three constructors still able to clinch top honours for the season. Sellers of Hamilton’s season total spread will be wondering if they can do even better this week after his predicted total was reduced from 102 to 96 following the disappointment in Japan. It was at this race last year where it all started to come undone for the rookie Hamilton – he retired, handing Räikkönen the chequered flag and cutting his then lead to just four. The rest is history.
Hamilton’s World Championship cushion now stands at just five points over second-placed Massa and Robert Kubica has also put himself in the mix after his fantastic podium in Fuji. Stats suggest the track suits the Ferrari - the last two races were won by Räikkönen (2007) and Schumacher (2006), who still holds the lap record he set in 2004. McLaren have had mixed fortunes here, with at least one driver retiring in each of the last three years, which will be of interest to those spread punters looking to buy Ferrari’s Championship index at 44 (maximum points 50) or sell Hamilton’s index at 53 (maximum points 60).
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Formula One 10 Oct 08
The Formula One season edges towards its climax in Japan on Sunday. With only three races remaining, studying the form book becomes increasingly unreliable as the pressure on the leading teams heats up. But with a seven point cushion after a decent performance under the floodlights at Singapore, it looks as though the weekend will suit Lewis Hamilton, and buyers of him in the Sporting Index race win index can take heart from last year’s performance in Fuji where he won from the front of the grid.
With drivers scrambling for the last remaining championship points, buyers of Hamilton’s season total spread (currently at 101-103) will also be hoping that he is also able to avoid the controversy of last year’s race, where a steward’s enquiry almost cost him his victory after he allegedly caused a crash between Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel. The Fuji circuit is widely perceived as being one of the most undemanding in Formula 1, so with overtaking possibilities at a maximum, spread bettors should be prepared for an intense contest.
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Formula One 26 Sep 08
The F1 season rolls on with the first ever night-time Grand Prix to be held in Singapore. This is the first GP in Singapore, so there is not a great deal to go on with regard to previous form. However, following the shock victory of Vettel in Italy two weeks ago, Sporting Index have now set the season points market at 100-103 for Massa and 102-105 for Lewis Hamilton. The Singapore GP is a street circuit and as Hamilton has already shown this season with his epic performance at Monaco, these tight turns and chicanes bring out the best in him, or that’s at least what buyers of him in the race win index will be hoping for.
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Formula One 12 Sep 08
The F1 bandwagon rolls onto Monza, the home of Ferrari, this weekend and Lewis Hamilton will be looking to avenge his disqualification in Spa. He is still in the lead in the Championship race but now by a diminishing two-point margin and those who have bought his spread for season points will be hoping for a bit more luck on Sunday. Hamilton supporters in Sporting Index’s race index will be pleased to hear that McLaren have won two of the last three races at Monza, including a 1-2 last year. However, Ferrari have won the other four in the past six years. Spread punters should also probably wait to declare their hand until qualifying is well underway, as the winner of the last five races here has started on the first line of the grid, with four of those starting in pole. The circuit is famous for the need to combine speed with skill and those selling the time of the winning distance will be delighted to hear that none of the last six winners have won by more than 8 seconds.
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Formula One 3 Sep 08
The Formula 1 Grand Prix Championship moves to Belgium this weekend where the unpredictable weather, long straights and taxing corners make this a real stern test. However, Ferrari and McClaren teams have between them won nine out of the last ten Belgian GP’s, winning five and four respectively. Felipe Massa is currently lying second behind Hamilton in the Drivers Championship, having won last months’ European Grand Prix. The Brazilian already has 64 points in the bag and his Championship points can be bought at 101 with Sporting Index.
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Formula One 22 Aug 08
The Formula One bandwagon rolls on to Valencia for its first ever Grand Prix this weekend and those who have bought Lewis Hamilton in the drivers’ season points index, will be hoping the British maestro can continue his country’s tremendous sporting run. His spread is currently 103-106 and another victory will see that figure move up once again. This unusually-designed circuit is very quick, with top speeds of over 300kmph and the 25 turns will provide the drivers with a unique challenge. The track, similarly to Monaco, is a street circuit, but incorporates all of the features of a permanent track.
McLaren have come back at Ferrari in the past six weeks and they are now just 11 points behind the Italians in the Sporting Index Constructor’s Season Points index, having won the last three races. However, the traders are still anticipating Ferrari will win comfortably and their spread is set at 188-194, whilst Hamilton’s team are available at 168-174. The Ferrari supporters will be encouraged that their drivers won four of the last six races at the back end of last season.
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Formula One 1 Aug 08
The next round in the battle for the Formula One World Championship moves to Hungary, with Lewis Hamilton in pole position in the Sporting Index driver’s season points index. His spread is currently set at 105-108 after back-to-back victories, which is just shy of his 109 total last year. Although the spreads won’t be released until after qualifying, Hamilton is the first driver to register back-to-back victories this season. It is the second occasion he has done this in his short, yet illustrious career, but buyers of him in the race win index will be slightly concerned that the last driver to register three wins in a row was the great Michael Schumacher in 2006. However, Hamilton won this race last year and if he was to win again this time round, Britain would have won this race for three years in a row, after Jenson Buttons’ remarkable victory in 2006.
The Hungaroring is set in a valley 18 kilometres outside Budapest. The circuit is infamously difficult to perform overtaking manoeuvres due to its tight corners which often means spread bettors will wait for qualifying before they make their decision on the race index. However, the track has thrown up some memorable races, including Damon Hill daringly overtaking Michael Schumacher in 1997, only to lose the race thanks to engine failure on the last lap. There will be plenty of punters interested in playing the winning distance spread once they have seen qualifying. However, it may pay to tread with caution as it certainly appears to be a volatile market at this circuit. Although two of the last three winners have won by 30 seconds or more, Hamilton last year became the second winner in the space of six years to win by under a second.
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Formula One 17 Jul 08
Following Lewis Hamilton’s success on home soil two weeks ago, attention now turns to Hockenheim for the European Grand Prix. With three drivers tied on 48 points and Robert Kubica two points back in fourth, spread betting punters could be looking at one of the most exciting and open title races in years. Hamilton is second favourite to win the title and his season points can be bought at 102 – seven points less than what he achieved in his debut season. Raikkonen is the favourite to retain his crown and can be bought at 105, but sellers will be interested to learn that he retired in this race last year (staged at the Nurburgring) despite starting from pole. However, sellers should also be aware that the Finn does hold the track record at this circuit.
Hockenheim is one of the most eagerly anticipated races of the season due to its idyllic location in the middle of the Rhine Forest. The track was heavily criticised when it was redeveloped in 2002, but the hair-pin at the end of the straight provide plenty of clever over-taking possibilities. Alonso and Schumacher have won the last four German / European races, so a new name is almost certainly likely to be on the trophy at the end of this one. Buyers of Felipe Massa in the race win index will be hoping he can improve one place after finishing second to Alonso last year by 8.1 second. Interestingly, punters may not have to side with the driver in pole for the race, as the last three winners have all been second or third on the grid.
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Formula One 4 Jul 08
It’s the British Grand Prix this weekend and the patriotic betting public are likely to out in force to buy Lewis Hamilton’s finishing position – hoping that he can become the first Briton to win the race since David Coulthard in 2000. Silverstone has had some very close, exciting finishes in recent years and the chicane at Woodcote is the place to look out for fast, overtaking manoeuvres. It is the perfect track for spread betting due to its unpredictability and in the last 10 years, five winners have won by a winning time margin of 2.7 seconds or less, with three of the last four under this figure. Buyers of the winning time margin should take note. Qualifying, as we all know, is so important on the Grand Prix circuit. However, it doesn’t appear to be as important at the Northamptonshire track. Only two of the last 10 winners started from pole, whilst half in the last decade have won from the second line of the grid. Punters looking to have a bet on the outsiders in the win index should be careful though, as Ferrari have won 5 and McLaren 4 of the last 10.
Kimi Raikkonen is currently favourite in Sporting Index’s season points market and his spread is 104-108, whilst team-mate Felipe Massa (currently 5 points ahead) is trading at 101-105. Massa buyers will obviously be concerned that Raikkonen has that all-important experience, but they will be delighted to hear that since 1987, the driver leading the Championship after eight races has gone on to win the title 18 times – with the other three all coming second. They will be further buoyed by the news that at this stage of the season, 19 of the last 21 champions had won three races (Massa is the only driver to register three wins so far this year). Buyers of Hamilton and Kubica at 92 and 93 respectively will be concerned that 18 of the last 20 champions had started in at least 50 races before the start of their winning season.
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Formula One 23 May 08
Without a doubt the highlight of the F1 calendar takes place this weekend, as the rich and famous turn out for the Monaco Grand Prix. Overtaking is incredibly difficult at the compact track, so qualifying becomes even more important than usual. The last four winners had all started from pole and last year the first four on the grid ended in exactly the same positions, which means punters may be best waiting for the early qualifying rounds.
Fernando Alonso has won the last two races in Monte Carlo, so buyers at 20 (where you awarded 60 points for 1st, 40 for 2nd, 30 for 3rd, 25 for 4th, 20 for 5th, 15 for 6th, 10 for 7th and 5 for 8th) will be hoping he can make it three in a row.
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Formula One 9 May 08
Ferrari are looking fairly dominant in the Formula One world at present, having finished 1-2 in both of the last two races. Buyers of their constructor points will be hoping that the pattern continues in the Turkish Grand Prix at Istanbul Park this weekend. The track has only been on the calendar for three seasons, but its complex mix of slow corners, gradient changes and long straights make it one of the most testing racetracks on the F1 calendar. The already infamous multi-apex Turn Eight is the highlight of the cleverly designed track and provides the drivers with a real challenge.
Buyers of Felipe Massa at 94 in the drivers’ season points index should have no reason to worry about Istanbul Park though, as the Brazilian has won there both times he’s driven for Ferrari and registered his first ever career win there in 1996. That may have something to do with the circuit being one of only two tracks in the calendar that runs anti-clockwise (the other being his home track in Brazil). As in the last Grand Prix in Spain, pole position is all important in Turkey and the winner has always started from first on the grid in all three races here.
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Editor’s note: Although this article is now technically out of date the theory and example are still worth a read for those new to F1 spread betting.
F1 Spread Betting Example
The second Grand Prix of the 2008 season takes place in Malaysia on Sunday and buyers of Lewis Hamilton season points at 108 will be hoping he can make it two from two in Sepang. He was second to Fernando Alonso last year and there could be fireworks if the two enemies are in touching distance at any point during the race. Sepang is a very wide track which makes it perfect for overtaking manoeuvres, yet it is also one of the most complex and technical courses on the F1 circuit, with a combination of tight turns and long high velocity straights.
Alonso has a very strong record here, winning two and finishing second in the last three years.
Looking at the Race Index, a Driver is awarded:
60 points for a win
40 points for 2nd
30 points for 3rd
25 points for 4th
20 for 5th
15 for 6th
10 for 7th
5 points for 8th
0 points for any other position
Buyers of Alonso on the Race Index will be hoping he can finish in the first five to guarantee a profit. Interestingly, in the last two years the first two places have been occupied by drivers from the same team. Last year it was Alonso and Hamilton for McLaren and in 2006 it was Fisichella and Alonso for Renault.
Hamilton can be bought at 35 points. So if you buy at 35 you’ll make money if he finishes first or second but you’ll lose money if he finishes elsewhere.
Hamilton’s team mate Heikki Kovalainen can be bought at 24 points. So a profit awaits you if you Buy him at 24 and he finishes fourth or better. A loss will come your way for any other position.
'F1 Spread Betting', guide by D. Jones, last update: 31-Oct-08
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