The Financial Fixed Odds update from David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

 
Today we’ve already had mixed Australian employment data which is putting pressure on the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD).

Coming up at 13.00 we have a rate statement from the Swiss central bank. Traders have been betting that the Swiss government will be raising rates in the near future as its recession has been relatively mild.

Analysts expect rates to remain unchanged at today’s meeting but the accompanying statement will be examined for any juicy hints. USD/CHF is the pair to watch for this.

At 13.30 we have Canadian & US Trade balance numbers released at the same time as the latest US unemployment claims.

So far forex markets have been relatively quiet with the Australian and New Zealand Dollar weak on the back of the recent Australian employment data.

Overall, then Japanese Yen is having a strong day as traders seek a refuge following unexpectedly high Chinese inflation data.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

The Financial Fixed Odds update from David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

 
The top currency in 2009 measured against the US Dollar was the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD).

The AUD/USD rose by over 40% over the year thanks to increasing interest rates, a relatively stable economy and well regulated banking sector.

But who will be 2010’s top currency?

Many are now pointing to the Canadian Dollar as a good candidate for 2010’s top currency.

Like Australia, it survived the credit crunch relatively well and its banks have been voted the safest for two years in a row.

Its interest rates are still at near zero levels compared to Australia’s 4%, so there’s arguably more room for upside there.

The USD/CAD is currently hovering around the C$1.0200 level, a point which has been seen important support and resistance in the past.

The last time the Canadian Dollar broke the C$1.02 level it led to quick sell off in the US Dollar over 8 weeks down to C$0.9000. Could it happen this time?

You can currently get a potential return of 1345% with a Fixed Odds Bet that the USD/CAD will hit C$0.9000 in the next 70 days.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

The Financial Fixed Odds update from David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

 
So far today, the Asian session has seen renewed strength in the Yen after it took a beating in the second half of last week.

No prizes of guessing which currency is the being hit the hardest against the resurgent Yen, yes the British Pound is once again the morning’s weakest currency.

The GBP/JPY is down 0.72% with the GBP/USD down 0.36%.

The Euro is faring little better against the Yen with the EUR/JPY down 0.5%, but it is the Pound with the broadest base of selling again.

Away from the Pound and New Zealand Dollar, the US Dollar is showing only mild strength against the likes of the Australian and Canadian Dollars.

No top tier economic announcements are due today, but UK trade balance due at 09.30 could have a greater effect on the Pound than usual.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

The Financial Fixed Odds update from David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

 
After last week’s wild ride, it looks as though the forex markets aren’t about to quieten down in a hurry.

In early trading today, the Euro is trading higher after French premier Nicolas offered strong hints that Europe was ready to stand behind Greece if needed.

Adding to the positive note today, ex US Federal reserve chairman Paul Volcker commented that the Greek debt crisis was ‘manageable’.

This morning the EUR/USD is up 0.38% with the EUR/JPY up 0.56%. The US Dollar and Japanese Yen are weak across the board with the Yen the poorest performer today.

Today’s top economic announcements include Swiss retail sales at 08.15 and German industrial production at 11.00.

Canadian housing starts are out at 13.15 so keep your eyes out for the USD/CAD around this time.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

The Financial Fixed Odds update from David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

 
After a busy economic news yesterday, here’s how the land lies currently:

• The Bank of England & ECB provoked little reaction with interest rate statements that came in largely as expected. Both kept rates on hold and the Bank of England maintained quantitative easing at current levels.
• Between these two currencies, the Pound was dominant, rising by 0.5% against the Euro (EUR/GBP).
• The Greek government returned to the market with a surprisingly well received bond placement. Despite this, the Euro was down heavily against the Pound and US Dollar.
• There are still worries about the outcome of the meeting between the Greek premier and German premier Angel Merkel today. Both parties are keen to stress that the meeting is not about an aid package for Greece, but the markets will be awaiting the outcome of the meeting eagerly all the same.
• Also weighing on the Euro was news that the Greek finance ministry had been blockaded by union workers striking against the planned austerity budget with fears of a similar action in Portugal and Spain.
• The latest UK house price index showed the housing rally has stalled, but the severe weather conditions were thought to play a part in this.
• Economic news from the US was mixed with unemployment claims coming in slightly lower than expected offset by a fall in pending home sales.
• The US Dollar was the strongest currency across the board with the New Zealand Dollar the weakest. The Canadian Dollar was also very strong on a relative basis.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

The Financial Fixed Odds update from David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

 
After a strong day for the Pound and Euro yesterday, today’s central bank statements could either make or break the nascent recovery.

At 12.00 GMT we have the latest interest rate statement from the Bank of England’s MPC.

Rates are unanimously expected to be kept on hold at 0.5%, but that’s only part of the story.

Firstly, the actions surrounding the asset purchase facility may be of more importance than the interest rate decision as it is this part which is less of a sure thing.

Analysts expect the Bank of England to keep the amount of quantitative the same, but after the Pounds recent collapse, there is an outside chance of this changing.

Traders will listen to every word and nuance of the accompanying statement from governor King for clues as to future policy decisions.

A bullish tone could see the Pound shoot higher, while negative sentiments or at least an interpretation of negativity could see a fresh sell off in the Pound.

The European Central Bank have their own rate decisions and statement at 12.45. However, although they have not been engaging in quantitative easing, the Eurozone is not without its problems; Greece and the other so called ‘peripherals’ are still weighing heavily on the Euro.

With so much at stake, today’s rate statements are the most important that the ECB and MPC have faced in months.

The GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP will be the currencies to watch.

As if the day wasn’t busy enough, we also have UK Halifax house price index at 09.00, Canadian building permits at 13.30, US unemployment claims at 13.00, Canadian PMI data at 15.00 and US pending home sales at 15.00.

It’s relatively quiet out there so far with the notable exception is the antipodean currencies of the Australian and New Zealand Dollar.

The NZD/USD is down 0.62% with the Australian Dollar not faring much better. Things could change pretty quickly once the economic data starts rolling in.

A busy day!

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

The Financial Fixed Odds update from David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

 
FTSE 100 Trading

The FTSE 100 piled on the points yesterday, moving to within 16 points of 5,500, putting the 2010 high of 5,600 back in sight once again.

Will it make it there this time?

If we zoom out a little, we can see that the FTSE 100 has been trading in a channel since February and is now pushing towards the middle channel once again.

The centre of this channel just about intersects with 5,600, so will the FTSE 100 have enough momentum to push through this level?

For those that believe it will, a Fixed Odds One Touch Trade at 5650 might be one way to play this.

Conversely, if you think it won’t make it there, a No Touch trade at 5600 might be better.

Economic Announcements

Later today all eyes will be on US ADP Non Farm Employment change. This announcement is often seen as a warm up for the all important Non Farm Payroll due out on Friday.

ADP has been negative since July 2008, although the pace of decline has continued to lessen each month since the depth of the crisis in early 2009.

Analysts are predicting the number to be -15k, which will be the best level seen since 2008.

Keep your eye on the Dollar & Yen pairs around 13.15 for signs of an initial reaction.

In particular, the AUD/USD and USD/CAD pairs could be the ones to watch.

Other than this we have US manufacturing PMI at 15.00 and UK services PMI at 09.30.

Early Forex Moves

In early trading the Pound is enjoying its best day for a fortnight. This doesn’t come on any good news in particular, but rather the lack of bad news for once.

The GBP/JPY is up 0.32%, the biggest move of all currency pairs so far today.

Other than this, it’s a mixed bag across other forex pairs.

The EUR/USD is up slightly while the AUD/USD is pretty much breaking even.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

The Financial Fixed Odds update from David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

 
Early Forex Report:

This morning has started with the pound selling off once again. Although, so far, sterling is managing to hold above yesterday’s lows.

The morning’s main news item has been the Royal Bank of Australia raising interest rates to 4%.

Unlike last month’s shock no change announcements, this move surprised very few people and the Australian Dollar is trading down as traders weigh up the still cautious comments emanating from the central bank.

The Kiwi dollar actually heads up this morning’s top fallers.

Still to come today we have UK Construction data and the Canadian interest rate statement. No change is expected, but keep your eye on the US Dollar/Canadian Dollar Spreads for a reaction around 14.00.

Pound Suffers from More Bad News

Yesterday was quite a ride for forex markets with the British pound sinking to fresh new multi month lows against most other currencies.

The move was attributed to:

• A Sunday Times poll which points to the Conservative Party only having a narrow lead over labour
• News that Mortgage lending has slumped
• News that the Prudential was looking to take over parts of AIG – this would require the Pru to enact a large purchase of dollars and sell of Sterling

Whatever the reason, the pound doesn’t make for pretty reading.

However, it wasn’t all one-way traffic, especially against the euro, and traders retraced some of their initial moves. Also see Euro – Pound Spreads.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

The Financial Fixed Odds update from David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

 
Early Forex Report:

It’s a mixed bag so far out there this morning the dollar is the dominant currency this morning, but this theme varies across the various forex pairs.

At one end of the scale, the Australian dollar is actually up against the US dollar (Australian Dollar – US Dollar) with the New Zealand dollar riding on its coat tails.

At the other end of the scale, the British pound is once again the weakest currency, falling 0.45% against the dollar (GBP/USD).

The weakness in sterling isn’t isolated to the US dollar though with losses against the yen (Pound – Yen) and Euro (Euro – Sterling).

Other currencies such as the yen, euro and Swiss franc are all down slightly against the US dollar.

Later Today

Today’s standout economic announcements include UK manufacturing PMI at 09.30 and Canadian GDP at 13.30.

And keep your eye out for US Manufacturing PMI at 15.00

A Look at the Late Friday Currency Markets

There was little movement across the forex pairs on Friday with the notable exception of the British pound.

Revised GDP figures came in at 0.3% vs a predicted 0.2%.

While the UK government is the news, the market is telling its own story.

The GDP/USD was down 0.6%, the GBP/JPY off by 0.7% with the pound also down 0.85% against the euro.

Markets are looking at the bigger picture and still see a fragile economy.

There is more than economics at play here though as the GDP news may bolster Gordon Brown’s election chances, which in turn increased the likelihood of a hung parliament.

Markets desire clarity and hate the prospective confusion that a hung parliament could bring.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

The Financial Fixed Odds update from David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

 
Yesterday the British Pound was absolutely hammered, there’s no way of sugar coating it.

The fall has been attributed to yesterday’s dire business investment figures.

Billionaire investor Jim Rogers believes that Sterling could collapse within weeks.

Here’s what he said (hat tip to the FT)

“The UK Pound is on the brink of a collapse which will herald a downturn worse than 2008/9, it could well happen within weeks and the British government is powerless to prevent it.

“And this in turn will foreshadow a global economic winter that could come before the end of 2010 and make the last two years seem like a mild spring day.

“Other currencies aren’t strong and the Euro has real problems, with cracks much wider than Greece beginning to show,” Rogers continues, “but it’s the Pound that’s most vulnerable.

“In real terms, it’s already devalued against virtually every currency barring the Zimbabwean Dollar and it’s especially exposed over the weeks running up to the UK election. In a basket of currencies, the Pound is potentially a basket case. And that will put Britain in an extremely bad position for the shakedown.”

It should be noted that Rogers has been predicting said collapse for some time and while it’s certainly depreciated, it cannot be said that it has collapsed… yet.

What about his assertion that the Pound is devalued against virtually every currency?

Let’s have a look at the performance of Sterling against all major currencies since January 2008 (and the Icelandic Krona, just for comparison, I couldn’t get the Zimbabwean Dollar data)

So we can see that barring the Icelandic Krona, the Pound has devalued by an average of 1/5th, and by nearly 40% against the Yen.

The Pound has certainly been lower against the US Dollar and Euro in the depths of 2009, but now it’s reaching multi year lows against the likes of the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars.

It’s also true to say that other currencies were hit hard yesterday, like the Australian Dollar, but since 2008, it’s clear that the British Pound has been the weakest major currency overall.

For comparison, here’s the performance for 2010 so far:

Hardly a bed of roses either, with even the Icelandic Krona gaining on the Pound by 2.43%.

British Krona anyone?

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.