The Financial Fixed Odds update from David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

Will markets deliver a Santa Clause rally?

Including today, there are just two trading sessions to go before Christmas. Historically this period has been extremely positive for stock markets. Taking last night’s close as our entry point, the benchmark US index, the S&P 500 has closed higher at some point during the next 5 trading days 95.5% of the time.

It will certainly be impressive if markets manage to rally once again this year because it means that indices such as the Dow Jones (Wall Street) will finally break out of the month long trading range.

Switching to currency markets, the dollar was strong once again, especially against the British Pound (GBP/USD) as traders reacted to the news that the UK is still in recession.

The UK wasn’t the only faller though, with the Aussie and Kiwi dollars continuing their downwards trajectory (AUD/USD & NZD/USD).

This morning, markets are quiet as you would expect leading into the last serious trading session for the year. In early trading, the pound is under pressure again though, especially against the Japanese yen (GBP/JPY).

What’s hot?

Betting against the British Pound: GBP/USD & GBP/JPY

Fixed Odds Bet Idea:

Including today, there are just two trading sessions to go before Christmas. Historically this period has been extremely positive for stock markets. Taking last night’s close as our entry point, the benchmark US index, the S&P 500 has closed higher at some point during the next 5 trading days 95.5% of the time!

It could be a good period for some One Touch higher trades or Double (up) bets on the S&P 500.

Today’s Market Movers:

Today we have the release of the minutes from the last UK Bank of England Monitory Policy committee meeting. Analysts will be interested to see if there any hints as to a potential plan B if the quantitative easing plan fails to work as some are speculating. The day’s other standout announcement is US New Home sales at 15.00.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

The Financial Fixed Odds update from David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

Will the Dow Finally Break out?

Global stock markets were relatively quiet last week with a small loss over the 5 trading days for most markets. The Dow Jones (Wall Street) continues trade in a tight range with the 15,000 becoming a solid barrier overhead. Since November 23rd, the Dow has tried to push through this level 9 times but managed to close above it just once.

At the same time though, the downside has been limited to just 250 points from this barrier so it will be interested to see if the Dow can break out of this quagmire today.

Forex markets certainly weren’t so stuck with some big moves following through on the dollar and yen pairs. The EUR/USD made it two big weekly losses in a row while the AUD/ USD suffered on speculation that further rate cuts would be less forthcoming than previously thought.

This morning the Aussie dollar is continuing the sell off from last week with losses of 0.4% on the AUD/ USD and 0.5% on the AUD/JPY so far this morning. The yen seems to be the currency of choice this morning, making further ground elsewhere with the GBP/JPY off by 0.3%

What’s Hot?

Betting against the Aussie dollar: AUD/JPY & AUD/USD.

Bet Idea:

Keep your eye on the Dow Jones for any break out of the trading range above 10,500 or (more likely) below 10,250. Any initial break could be a fake so a double up or down bet might be a good strategy to take in the opposite direction of the breakout. For example if we get a breakdown below 10,250, look for a double (up) bet.

Today’s Market Movers:

Today’s top announcements are Canadian retail sales at 13.30 and New Zealand current account data at 21.45. In general it’s a relatively slow day on the economic news front as traders wind down for the Christmas week.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

The Dollar reigned supreme yesterday as investors fretted over renewed banking fears, sovereign debt problems in Europe and the prospects for a rate hike in the US.

The Dollar reigned supreme yesterday as investors fretted over renewed banking fears, sovereign debt problems in Europe and the prospects for a rate hike in the US.

The EUR/USD plunged by over 1.4% on Thursday as worries over the state of the Greek, Irish, Spanish and Italian economies.

While the Euro was singled out for punishment, it certainly wasn’t alone in posting big losses against the US Dollar and Japanese Yen.

Gold was one of the biggest casualties as speculators pulled their money out of commodities on the back of the strong US Dollar. The precious metal’s seemingly unstoppable rally continues to unravel, falling nearly 10% since the $1227 peak just two weeks ago.

This morning we’re seeing a reasonable rebound against yesterday’s losses. So far, the USD/JPY (US Dollar/Japanese Yen) and USD/CHF (US Dollar/Swiss franc) are leading the counter charge.

The Swiss Franc has nearly made back the losses from yesterday against the US Dollar as investors switch back to ‘the other safe haven’. The trend is still strongly with the US Dollar though and today’s pullback could be a good buying opportunity for the USD/CHF.

What’s moving:

Betting against the US Dollar: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD & USD/CHF
The Swiss Franc: USD/CHF

Today’s market movers:

Today’s market movers include German IFO business climate data at 09.00. So far, the German economy has been holding up relatively well, at least compared to the likes of Greece and Ireland.

Any signs of weakness in this European powerhouse could therefore have an exaggerated impact on the Euro.

Next we have UK public sector net borrowing. The forecast is for a record rise to £23.1 billion. Coming on the back of last week’s Pre Budget report, this announcement could cause a spark of volatility in the GBP/USD if it comes in higher than expected.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

The Euro is in focus again this morning as the EUR/USD breaks below the $1.4500 support level to record its lowest levels since September.

The Euro is coming under increasing pressure as traders speculate on the possibility of Greece leaving the European single currency in order to restructure its recovery plans.

The US Dollar is in demand across the board once again after yesterday’s economic announcements that hinted at further improvements in the world’s biggest economy.

The Australian Dollar continues to sell off, breaching the $0.9000 level and falling 0.54% on the day.

This is a telling move as the fall comes despite oil prices stabilising above $70 and gold holding ground after weeks of losses.

The closely linked New Zealand Dollar heads the list of losers today, falling 0.82% against the US Dollar.

Forex markets (especially the Euro) are showing signs that investors are jittery over the problems in Europe, but so far this hasn’t translated into serious selling in the stock market.

Yesterday, financial markets showed little reaction to the news that the US Federal reserve would be keeping interest rates on hold.

Investors heard nothing they weren’t expecting and consequently, the Dow Jones remains stuck below the 10,500 that has been proving so troublesome over the last month.

In fact, the Dow has been trading in a tight range recently, failing to make any progress above 10,500. This tightly coiled spring will break out at some point and the motions in the forex markets indicate that it could be a big breakout when it comes.

What’s moving:

The US Dollar: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD & USD/CHF
Betting against the Euro: EUR/USD
Betting against the Australian and New Zealand Dollars: AUD/USD & NZD/USD.

Today’s market movers:

Today we have British retail sales at 09.30 which are expected to show an unchanged reading of +0.4%.

Later, the US sees the release of unemployment claims at 13.30 LEI, and Philadelphia Federal Reserve report at 15.00. Unemployment claims are expected to show a continuation of the improving trend.

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The Euro was at the receiving end of some heavy selling yesterday as cracks begin to appear across the Eurozone.

Ireland has already had its debt rating downgraded and announced severe spending cuts. Greece recently had its debt rating downgraded and failed to impress investors with their response to their potential debt crisis.

In addition, Austria had to bail out one of its largest banks, Hypo Group Alpe Adria.

All this is all having a direct impact on the Euro, which has now fallen by over 4% against the US Dollar since the peak in November.

This morning, the Euro is quiet, but the Australian Dollar’s two day slide continues. Investors are leaving the Australian Dollar now as the chance of further rate hikes diminish.

The AUD/USD and AUD/JPY are down 0.82%. The New Zealand Dollar is down 0.5% against the US Dollar in sympathy.

Financial markets are quiet so far today, but are unlikely to stay this way all day with the US interest rate announcement due in the evening.

The FOMC is the US central bank’s monitory policy committee in charge of setting interest rates.

So called ‘Fed‘ days have a positive bias with 2/3rd of meeting days finishing with market higher, including 10 of the last 12 meetings.

There it may pay to have a bet on the Dow Jones (Wall Street) being higher today.

What’s moving:

Betting against the Australian Dollar: AUD/USD & AUD/JPY

Today’s market movers:

Today’s top announcements include UK claimant count change numbers at 09.30 GMT. This measure of the number of people claiming unemployment benefits is expected to rise compared to last month.

The increase in benefit claimants has reduced considerably since the peak in March, but the data is still showing an increase none the less. If there is a bigger than expected number today, it could have a direct impact on the GBP/USD.

Next we have US Building permits and CPI inflation data at 13.30 GMT followed by the FOMC rate statement at 19.15.

As with most rate statements in the last few months, no change is expected, but according to recent newspaper reports, the US could raise its rates sooner than previously thought.

Keep your eye on US Dollar pairs and the Dow Jones around the time of the announcement. Any hints of a rate hike in the offing in the next 12 months could see the Dollar climb.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

Financial markets found the appetite for risk again with the Dow Jones (Wall Street) and the wider S&P 500 making new 2009 closing highs.

The next target will be the intraday high of 10,516 from the 4th which the Dow managed to miss by just one point yesterday.

The big catalyst was the easing of fears surrounding the Dubai debt default.

Gold also had its best day in over 2 weeks, rising to over $1120.

Forex markets are relatively quiet so far this morning with the Dollar rising slightly against the Pound and Euro, but rising by 0.5% against the Australian Dollar.

The Australian Dollar is weaker after the release of the minutes from the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia hinted that there would be a hiatus on rate hikes in the short term.

Keep your eye on the GBP/USD and GBP/JPY this morning around 09.30 following the UK CPI announcement.

The GBP/USD has been stuck for the last week, trading in a tight 200 pip range as investors debate the impact of last week’s pre budget report. There seems to be support at $1.6200, but the intermediate term trend is on the negative side.

Today’s CPI announcement could be enough to punch a hole through that support and send the Pound lower.

What’s moving:

Betting against the Australian Dollar: AUD/USD & AUD/JPY

Today’s market movers:

Today’s top announcements are related to inflation with UK CPI (Consumer Price Index) and RPI (Retail Price Index) released at 09.30 GMT.

Both inflation measures are expected to show a year on year increase, with RPI expected to turn positive for the first time since February.

This is a very important announcement for the UK economy and, like Goldilocks’ porridge, it can’t be too hot or too cold. Any severely negative numbers could indicate that the UK economy is stagnating.

If the number comes in too positive, it could indicate that the Bank of England’s attempts to pump money into the system have created an inflationary environment.

Keep your eye on the GBP/USD and the GBP/JPY around the time of the announcements. There could be a strong reaction on the FTSE 100 too.

Aside from UK inflation data, we also have a German ZEW economic sentiment report. This measures the optimism or pessimism levels of institutional investors and analysts.

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The Dollar bounced back last week as investors rotated back into ‘less risky’ currencies.

For all the headlines about the UK Pre Budget Report and its impact on UK borrowing costs, it was actually the Euro that fell hardest against the resurgent Dollar.

The EUR/USD fell to a 9 week low to close the week at $1.4586.

In early Monday trading though, it’s the Dollar that is on the back foot, falling around 0.35% against the Pound, Euro and Yen.

While most currency are advancing this morning, the Australian Dollar is under pressure, especially against the Yen where it is off by 0.5%.

The Australian Dollar is feeling the pinch with oil sinking to a 10 week low below $70 and gold’s big sell off last week. Both these commodities are a valuable part of the Australian economy.

Stock markets will enjoy a positive start to the week with the FTSE 100 expected to open up 0.65% higher on the news that Abu Dhabi would be stumping up the cash to ensure Dubai wouldn’t be defaulting on its loans.

The Dow Jones (Wall Street) looks set to open in positive territory, and perhaps challenge the 2009 high of 10,516.

The Dow has been repelled from current levels a number of times in the last month. Will today be any different?

What’s moving:

Betting against the Dollar: GBP/USD, EUR/USD & JPY/USD
Betting against the Australian Dollar: AUD/USD & AUD/JPY

Today’s market movers:

It’s a quiet day on the economic news front with European industrial production due at 10.00. However the overnight news about Dubai could have stronger repercussions as the traders absorb the news throughout the day.

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Forex markets are showing their hand early this morning with the Yen under pressure.

Positive economic news from China has encouraged the risk takers to come out of the woodwork and dump the Yen in favour of the Pound, US Dollar and Australian Dollar.

Aside from the big move against the Yen, most other forex pairs are cancelling each other out.

The exception is the British Pound which is showing some reasonable strength across the spectrum this morning.

When we put this morning’s strongest currency (British Pound) against this morning’s weakest currency (The Japanese Yen), we get a near 1% rise in the GBP/JPY.

After falling hard in the last 10 days, gold may have found a floor in the $1115 region. The precious metal is up this morning after HSBC predicted it could hit $1,300.

Gold tends to rally best when it’s out of the news and now it’s had its shakeout, the media frenzy has diminished somewhat.

Up bets on gold could be one way forward while $1100 holds.

What’s moving:

Betting against the Yen: USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY & AUD/JPY.
The British Pound: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP & GBP/JPY.

Today’s market movers:

This morning we start the day with UK PPI figures, which are a useful gauge of consumer inflation. Look for any reaction on the GBP/USD or GBP/JPY.

Next up we have US retail sales at 13.30. Are shoppers still splashing the cash in the world’s biggest economy?

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After all the analysis and re-analysis following the UK pre budget report yesterday, the British Pound managed to hold up reasonably well.

Most of the day’s losses came before the pre budget announcements.

Unfortunately, the Pound or indeed the Euro can’t seem to build any momentum and both currencies are starting the day with a negative tone after a bright start.

As the morning progresses, fear is starting to creep back into forex markets with the GBP/JPY down by 0.2%.

This trend could continue throughout the day and downside bets on the GBP/JPY could be the way forward today.

The Antipodean currencies are the morning’s front runners after strong Australian employment data and positive noises from the Bank of New Zealand on rates.

The AUD/USD, AUD/JPY & NZD/USD are up by 0.4%.

What’s moving:

The Australian Dollar: AUD/USD & AUD/JPY
The New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD

Today’s market movers:

Today we have two central bank interest rate announcements to chew on. First we have Swiss rates at 08.30. Look for any reaction in the USD/CHF.

Next we have the latest rate statement from the Bank of England’s MPC at 12.00. Rates are expected to stay at 0.5%, but it’s the asset purchase facility that could cause the most excitement.

The so called ‘quantitative easing’ policy will come under fresh focus after yesterday’s UK Pre Budget Report.

Following this we have trade balance figures from the US and Canada at 13.30 along with US unemployment claims released at the same time.

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It was a gloomy day on world stock markets yesterday as renewed banking fears caused the FTSE 100 to fall by over 1.5% on the day.

The Euro was rocked by a credit ratings downgrade for Greece. Analysts are concerned that the country could be heading for financial disaster unless it tackles it’s dangerously high levels of debt.

Fears of a similar downgrade to the UK’s credit rating also pushed the Pound lower yesterday. Today’s Pre Budget report from Chancellor Alistair Darling has mostly been leaked, but traders will still be looking for any signs that the UK debt mountain won’t be assailed.

Early indications aren’t good today, with the Pound down 0.4% against the Dollar (GBP/USD) and 0.5% against the Yen (GBP/JPY) in early trading.

Although the weak Pound may have benefited parts of the UK export economy, the FTSE 100 is made of global companies who receive much of their revenue in Euros or US Dollars.

This morning’s early falls in the Pound could therefore feed into further selling in the FTSE 100.

With yesterday’s renewed interest in the US Dollar, gold slumped back to $1128, a fall of nearly $35 on the day.

What’s moving:

Betting against the Pound: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP & GBP/JPY.

Today’s market movers:

Today’s main market mover is the UK Pre Budget Report released at 12.30 PM. Most of the big items have already been leaked out, but there could still be some surprises for the Pound, especially the GBP/JPY.

Other than this, we have the New Zealand rate announcement at 20.00.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.