The Financial Fixed Odds update from David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

A recent blog post by BetOnMarkets revealed how the French CAC 40 and German DAX 30 indices had lagged behind other stock markets:

1. From the post credit crunch low, and
2. During the recovery this year

This has partly been due to fears that Germany and France would be dragged into a Euro wide mess if Greece were to leave the Euro or Germany pre-empt a euro collapse by leaving itself.

Other theories have surface recently which might explain the performance of the CAC. Zero Hedge put forward an argument that France could be in serious trouble due to its huge exposure to the so called PIIG economies (Portugal, Iceland, Ireland and Greece).

Be careful if you’re trading the CAC 40 Spreads.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

The Financial Fixed Odds update from David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

The new trading week is only a few hours old, but we are already seeing some significant moves afoot.

Two major news items are responsible for this. The first is the news from Friday Goldman Sachs is being charged with fraud by the SEC with follow up analysis and speculation throughout the weekend from various sources.

Financial and forex markets are not just selling off because of the impact on Goldman, but because of the implications for the wider financial system. Investment Bank profits have bounced back recently and some would argue that this has been due to a return to the use of leverage by investment banks such as Goldman to increase profits (and exposure to losses).

The wider implication is that any investigations could mean greater than expected regulation of the derivatives market, which despite the credit crisis have largely escaped without a re-appraisal.

Impact on the Forex Markets?

Firstly, traders may simply be spooked away from taking ‘risks’ in currencies such as the Aussie and New Zealand dollar and switching back to the US dollar and Japanese yen.

Secondly, many traders have used the leverage that derivative trading affords to make over sized bets on the currency markets, especially on the carry trade which involves borrowing in yen to buy Australian dollars. Which can be good…until your carry trade unwinds and you have leveraged losses.

If risk taking and the leverage that investment banks help provide is curtailed, currency pairs such as the Australian Dollar – Yen and New Zealand Dollar – Yen could see some major volatility in coming months.

UK Election

The second major piece of weekend news is the latest UK general election polls which push the Liberal democrats into second place, throwing the outcome further into doubt and making a hung parliament even more likely.

Traders have been selling the pound in droves this morning as further analysis and polls were released over the weekend. With a hung parliament now more likely than not, traders fear that there will be too much in fighting and horse trading for a coalition government to sort out the UK’s fiscal deficit.

The Pound-Dollar spread is down 0.73% and the Pound – Yen spread down 0.81%. The pound is by far the stand out loser today, but the commodity currencies of the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollar are also falling back as oil price.

Investors are generally rotating out of risk with the US dollar and Japanese yen seen as the safer places to be right now.

The volcanic eruption appears to be having very little impact on financial markets so far.

Today’s only planned announcement of real note is Fed chairman Ben Bernanke speaking at 14.00.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

A daily look at the Markets from Joshua Raymond, Market Strategist, City Index.

European markets lost ground on Friday, with Indices being weighed down by a weaker session for commodity stocks but the loss was not enough to deter the FTSE 100 from posting a 7th straight week of gains.

Earnings justify investor confidence

The FTSE 100 has now posted weekly gains on 9 out of the last 10 weeks and this re-affirms just how much confidence there is amongst investors as global economies recover and company earnings improve. This week, with Intel, JP Morgan, General Electric and Bank of America all announcing forecast beating results, it seems that the confidence that has been shown by investors over the last 10 weeks has been justified so far.

Earnings continue in full flow next week with a number of crucial company’s reporting including; Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Apple, Microsoft and Morgan Stanley, all of which will help to bring the corporate recovery into greater visibility.

Banks 1-0 Miners

Today’s session has largely been dictated by a battle between the banks and the miners.

The banks have continued to rally in strong demand, benefitting from better than expected Bank of America results. Royal Bank of Scotland shares have also been flying today after BofA/Merrill Lynch issued a very positive note stating that RBS shares could double over the next two years. RBS shares have been in high demand all day on the back of this and top the FTSE 100 leader board, rallying over 6% in the process.

However, the mining sector has been particularly weak, tracking metal prices lower and this has helped to erase much of the gains in the banking sector.

Greece worries continue

The Greece situation remains a key concern amongst investors and looking at the yield on the Greek 10 Year government bonds, it appears that market confidence on the prospect of a Greek default remains on a knife edge. Greece seems now to have moved a step closer to requesting use of the EU’s €30bn emergency loan and we have seen the Euro sell off against the US dollar as a result, with yields on the 10 year Greek bonds trading above the 7% mark again, nearing last weeks record high.

The UK Election

We have seen an impact from last nights first TV debates on the strength of the pound today, which has weakened against the US dollar.

It seems unanimous that Nick Clegg was the biggest beneficiary last night but the key influence today has been the fact that David Cameron’s performance does not seem to have been enough to pull the Tory’s further away from the Labour party and therefore the markets are no closer to predicting the result.

Should last nights debate sway more undecided votes towards the Liberal Democrats, it could eat into the narrow lead the Conservatives have and this bring closer to reality the prospect of a hung parliament. The reaction in the market has been to short sterling by and large so far in case a hung parliament does happen.

Contracts for differences (“CFD”) trading and spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital with the possibility of losing more than your initial investment and may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

This material should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument by City Index Limited (“City Index”) or Online-Spread-Betting.com, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. The material is not a personal recommendation and you should seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets..

City Index is a spread betting and CFD provider and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (no. 113942) whose head and registered office is Park House, 16 Finsbury Circus, London EC2M 7EB (Registered in England and Wales, no. 1761813).

A daily look at the Markets from Joshua Raymond, Market Strategist, City Index.

The FTSE, DAX and CAC all traded largely flat to positive with sentiment continuing to benefit from consensus beating earnings fro Intel and JP Morgan.

The majority of the buying we have seen remains concentrated in the banking sector, with Barclays , RBS and HSBC all rallying over 1% but this is being weighed down a little by weakness in the miners.

Mining Stocks

The miners are keeping any gains on a leash with investors becoming a little nervous after China recorded another unexpected jump in annual growth of 11.9% and this will inevitably re-raise concerns that they may be forced into cooling growth in the near term, which is likely to have an impact on metal demand.

It’s a bit of a ‘catch 22′ situation for the miners right now as accelerated growth is an underlying concern in terms of whether this can be maintained, whilst slowing growth is a poor sign for metal demand.

We now have seen the FTSE 100 above 5800, the Dow above 11100 and the S+P above 1200. These are all important levels and this emphasises just how confident investors are feeling on the back of improving macro economic data and company earnings. Inevitably however, these are all levels where the market could look to consolidate if they don’t push on.

Despite the positive start to the US earnings season so far, closer to the UK shores investors are not getting too far ahead of themselves. British Consumer Confidence data slumped to 72 for March, its biggest fall since July 2008, and this reminds investors of just how fragile consumer confidence is on the high street.

Later in the day, investors will look towards the Philadelphia Fed to provide more clues on the economic recovery in the US, whilst after the US closing bell, Google becomes the latest big company to announce earnings.

UK Shares

Carnival tops the FTSE 100 leader board after a bullish note and price target upgrade by Morgan Stanley. They have raised their target on Carnival’s shares by 18% to 3200p and this has given shareholders a confidence boost this morning.

Experian is the main faller in London after the market was left disappointed with its second half trading update.

Contracts for differences (“CFD”) trading and spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital with the possibility of losing more than your initial investment and may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

This material should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument by City Index Limited (“City Index”) or Online-Spread-Betting.com, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. The material is not a personal recommendation and you should seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets..

City Index is a spread betting and CFD provider and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (no. 113942) whose head and registered office is Park House, 16 Finsbury Circus, London EC2M 7EB (Registered in England and Wales, no. 1761813).

Day Trading with 50% lower margins and 20% lower spreads.

City Index has launched ‘Day Trades’, a new product which will give 50% reduced margins and 20% lower spreads compared to standard City Index shares spread bet products on its 20 leading FTSE listed equities.

‘Day Trades’ is specifically designed to appeal to day traders.

It is a new spreads product that is available to trade throughout the day from 8:00am and closed at market levels at 16:28pm every trading day. Note that you cannot rollover these trades to the next day.

Joshua Raymond at City Index, said: “Day Trades will provide a fast, reliable and value-added service to customers wishing to trade on an intra-day basis.

The launch of Day Trades is reflects how we are increasing our range of products to cater for all client needs; long term investors, short term speculators or day traders.

We have found that day traders typically like to place multiple trades throughout the day. By reducing our spreads and margin levels for specific markets, we are reducing the typical trading costs a day trader would normally incur.”

Also see the City Index.

Spread betting, CFDs and forex trading and carry a high level of risk to your capital with the possibility of losing more than your initial investment and may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

Article approved and/or supplied by City Index Limited which is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA). FSA Register Number: 113942.

A daily look at the Markets from Joshua Raymond, Market Strategist, City Index.

European markets climbed on Wednesday to eradicate much of Tuesday’s losses after confidence boosting earnings at Intel helped to supplement demand for stocks.

Intel Results Boost – Markets Await JP Morgan Results

Moves to the upside were being kept on a bit of a leash however as the majority of investors quickly refocused their gaze to JP Morgan’s earnings, which are set to be announced at 12 noon BST and US Retail Sales which come out ninety minutes later.

If both JP Morgan and US Retail Sales ally with Intel’s figures last night in outperforming also, it could lock in a very good day for equity markets in Europe and set a positive tone for the early stages of this first quarter earnings season.

We are higher today purely on the back of the positive earnings from Intel last night, which came in much better than expected. Intel is the world’s largest chip maker and a bellwether for tech stocks.

The fact that both margins and sales gazumped market expectations has therefore given investors a confidence boost that the road to recovery remains intact.

The Intel numbers have boosted appetite for risk, with investors recycling money out of the safe havens of the US dollar and into the riskier commodity stocks. As a result, the miners have turned around yesterday’s losses in early trade and energy stocks have also gained ground.

Eurozone Industrial Production Surges

The Euro and Pound are also benefitting from renewed risk appetite too with both currencies gaining against the US dollar.

Industrial Production figures out of the Euro zone came in much better than expected with a rise of 0.9% on the month when no change was expected. This has helped to compliment early equity gains, though there was little reaction in the currency markets.

US Retail Sales

US Retail Sales is the headline macro economic event of the day and the market is expecting sales to rise 1.2% in March from 0.3% in February.

Investors will look to this data to help compliment the solid jobs data we have already seen in the US and if we get a higher rise than the 1.2% expected, the markets may push on further towards the close.

Contracts for differences (“CFD”) trading and spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital with the possibility of losing more than your initial investment and may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

This material should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument by City Index Limited (“City Index”) or Online-Spread-Betting.com, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. The material is not a personal recommendation and you should seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets..

City Index is a spread betting and CFD provider and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (no. 113942) whose head and registered office is Park House, 16 Finsbury Circus, London EC2M 7EB (Registered in England and Wales, no. 1761813).

A daily look at the Markets from Nick Serff, Market Analyst, City Index.

Europe’s markets traded slightly lower on Tuesday, tracking weakness in Asia this morning as the miners continued to retreat from the highs reached last week.

The retailers have yet again been the success story of the day so far after the British Retail Consortium announced the fastest rise in retail sales in a year for March.

However, many investors remain a little apprehensive as we venture into the first quarter earnings season in the US with Intel set to announce their numbers after the US closing bell this evening.

With a distinct lack of macro economic data due out until later in the week, the market is lacking many excuses to push on until we get into the depths of the US earning season.

UK Retailers Surge

The retailers in the UK have been the standout gainers today, continuing yesterdays strong performance after the British Retail Consortium announced that Retail Sales grew 4.4% year on year for March, which is the fastest rise in a year.

This has helped to maintain the positive start to the week for many of the retailers, lifting Kingfisher shares to a new 4 month high, with Next and Home Retail Group all making solid gains too.

Miners Weaken

The miners are the main drag on European Index Spreads today with investors continuing to consolidate their holdings having seen Copper Spreads and Gold Spreads retreat. The mining sector is lower by 1.3% in London and this is where the majority of today’s losses on the FTSE 100 can be located.”

Contracts for differences (“CFD”) trading and spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital with the possibility of losing more than your initial investment and may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

This material should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument by City Index Limited (“City Index”) or Online-Spread-Betting.com, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. The material is not a personal recommendation and you should seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets..

City Index is a spread betting and CFD provider and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (no. 113942) whose head and registered office is Park House, 16 Finsbury Circus, London EC2M 7EB (Registered in England and Wales, no. 1761813).

A daily look at the Markets from Joshua Raymond, Market Strategist, City Index.

European markets were calm on Monday with the FTSE 100, DAX and CAC all trading flat to positive as investors began to look ahead to the US earning season, which kicks off with Alcoa this evening.

Equity markets have been led mainly by stronger banking, energy and retail sectors, whilst the miners have kept any gains in Europe on a bit of a leash.

Bid speculation for Home Retail Group, strong Chinese oil import data and a surprisingly bullish update from UBS have all been key equity drivers behind today’s moves.

With a lack of significant economic news due out until Wednesday’s US retail sales, investors are likely to focus on the start of the first quarter US earnings season, with Alcoa kicking us off tonight whilst Intel’s numbers will also draw a large audience tomorrow.

€30bn Greece aid package

The €30bn emergency aid package for Greece, should they require it, has certainly removed a large degree of uncertainty from the markets that has caused turmoil for the Euro in recent months. Naturally therefore, there has been a relief rally in the Euro today against both the dollar and the sterling from the lows of last week.

The fact that interest rates for the loan deal would be fixed at 5%, well below Friday’s rates on Greek bonds and therefore cheaper than if Greece were to raise the money in the open market, is also providing a bit of relief to the Euro too.

China data lifts energy stocks

Energy stocks have been driven higher by data showing that Chinese crude imports jumped to their second highest monthly level in March.

The Greece aid package has also convinced many to move some money out the safer US Dollar and back into risk, which has also been a boost to crude oil prices and energy stocks alike.

Retailers higher on Home Retail bid talk

The retailers have also been in demand after weekend reports that Asda could bid for Home Retail Group. The news has lifted Home Retails shares straight to the top of the FTSE 100 leader board.

BofA Merrill Lynch also upgraded their stance on Sainsbury shares to ‘buy’, and this move, together with the Home Retail bid speculation is energizing the retail sector today.

Contracts for differences (“CFD”) trading and spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital with the possibility of losing more than your initial investment and may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.

This material should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument by City Index Limited (“City Index”) or Online-Spread-Betting.com, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. The material is not a personal recommendation and you should seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets..

City Index is a spread betting and CFD provider and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (no. 113942) whose head and registered office is Park House, 16 Finsbury Circus, London EC2M 7EB (Registered in England and Wales, no. 1761813).

The Financial Fixed Odds update from David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

This morning we are seeing a slight weakening in the yen across the board, but so far the moves are nothing to write home about.

Currency markets appear to be taking a wait and see approach today with the most currency pairs enjoying a quiet Asian session.

Much of the heavy lifting was done in yesterday’s afternoon session as Trichet calmed the stormy Greek waters.

However, the situation highly complex and despite Trichet’s calming words, many traders are still sceptical about the prospects for Greece and by proxy the euro.

Today’s main economic news items include UK PPI output at 09.30 GMT (DST) and ECB president Tichet speaking again at 16.30.

The main announcements come add midday with Canadian employment change and employment rate.

Analysts are expecting an improvement in both measures and any numbers that come in better than expected could see the US Dollar – Canadian Dollar spread push below parity once again after bouncing off the 1.0000 level this week.

Currency Trading Review

Yesterday was anything but a quiet day for markets.

The commodity currencies (Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar) were weak all day, with the Kiwi the biggest faller.

The early morning Asian session started with further panic over the prospects of a Greek debt default. ‘Panic’ is perhaps the apt description because very little of the news released was actually new and few of the rumours had been confirmed as fact.

In this context, it’s understandable that markets would have reacted so eagerly to any words of support from ECB president Trichet.

During his monthly press conference, Trichet commented that “default is not an issue for Greece”. Markets took a little while to absorb these words, but the euro rebounded well today, especially against the yen. Also see Euro – Yen Spreads.

There are plenty of sceptics still out there though so yesterday’s rally could be just a temporary reprieve.

In other news, the ECB and MPC provided no surprises in keeping rates on hold at 1% and 0.5% respectively.

US unemployment claims came out worse than expected. Nevertheless markets appear to be on the way to recovering from the initial shock this presented.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

The Financial Fixed Odds update from David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

No major currency moves to speak of so far today. Traders appear to be taking a pause ahead of a busy economic news day.

No doubt the euro will continue to grab the headlines with the Greek debacle centre stage.

Today the ECB (European Central Bank) hold their monthly press conference at 13.30 GMT (DST) following the latest rate statement at 12.45.

The rate statement itself is unlikely to bring any surprises and the ECB are almost certainly going to keep rates on hold at 1%.

What traders will be looking for is any further hints/updates on the ECB’s position on the Greek problems which in turn provide subtle clues as to the strength of unity in the Eurozone.

The British pound has enjoyed a good couple of weeks, especially against the euro, so today’s MPC (UK Monitory Policy Committee) rate statement and press conference will be followed ever closely, especially as it comes at the start of a hotly contested election. The statement comes at 12.00.

That’s not all for the UK today though, with the latest Halifax House Price index released at 09.00 and Manufacturing production at 09.30. Both are expected to show improvements on the previous month.

Finally, we have US unemployment claims at 13.30.

With so much data due today, especially from the UK, the Pound-Dollar spread could be the pair in play.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.