The week has started in positive fashion with stock market futures rising on the back of returning demand for commodities.

The Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar are rallying by around 0.3% against the US dollar and 0.4% against the yen. The yen is giving way to a slightly stronger dollar this morning as risk takers return back to the market.

Trading Today

US markets are closed for Independence Day. The resulting lack of volume could make for a subdued session. On the other hand, the resulting lack of liquidity can make markets swing to the other extreme of wild moves. Something to keep in mind this morning.

There are a few noteworthy economic announcements from Europe as follows.

Swiss retail sales at 08.15. Until Thursday, the Swiss Franc was bidding higher at the expense of the US dollar. This changed with the Swiss National Bank once again making direct interventions in the currency markets after a brief hiatus.

At 09.30 we have UK Services PMI, a useful measure of economic activity and inflation.

US Jobs / Non-Farm Payrolls

After Wednesday’s ADP data, analysts were predicting a poor Non Farm Payroll result for Fridays’ NFP and they were not wrong. The NFP came out worse than the already deflated expectations at -125,000.

US stock market future’s reaction the news was volatile. That was not helped by the fact that the unemployment rate came in slightly better than expectations. However, as the afternoon progressed, a sell off began. Although there was a rebound in the futures markets on Friday evening.

The Financial Fixed Odds update by David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

This morning, forex markets are unwinding some of the huge moves made throughout yesterday’s session.

It was certainly one of the strangest sessions I’ve seen in some time, with each pair seeming to trade with a life of its own.

The Euro/Dollar spreads gained by 2.5%, a move that had many market observers scratching their heads in confusion (and leaving some trading desks with burnt fingers).

On the positive side, US stock markets recovered from near 2% intraday losses to close down around 0.3%.

This morning, the US dollar is regaining some of its swagger, with the Dollar/Yen spreads rising 0.35%. The yen is on the back foot as speculators reach feel confident enough to take some risks.

Trading Non Farm Payroll (NFP)

There is only one announcement that really matters today – US Non Farm Payrolls due at 13.30.

Wednesday’s ADP jobs data was a downside shock, forcing analysts to massively downgrade their expectations for today’s top tier economic announcement. Analysts are now expecting a drop in employment change of -106,000, a figure hastily revised downwards, representing sharp reversal of the upwards momentum.

If there is a big positive or negative deviation from the -106K estimation, there could be a huge reaction on forex pairs. The USD/ CHF has been a strongly trending pair of late so could be a prime candidate for a big reaction to a NFP miss.

Trading Idea

A good way to play this could be a breakout trade on the Dollar/Swiss Franc with the triggers set to 1.0450 and 1.0750. If the USD/CHF hits either of these points in the next 3 days, the trade could return 140%.

Editors note: if you lose this trade, you lose 100% of your stake.

The Financial Fixed Odds update by David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

Last night US markets took a dive in the final hour of trading. That brought the Dow Jones to its lowest closing level since October 2009.

Also see Dow Jones spread betting.

The slump also impacted forex markets with the EUR/USD losing half its gains and the AUD/JPY hitting reverse gear, finishing down over 1%.

Markets were spooked when Moody’s announced it would be reviewing Spain’s coveted AAA credit rating. The move certainly dented some of the optimism seeping into Europe following the relief over the LTRO expiry passing without a major disaster.

This morning there has been more bad news with Chinese manufacturing data coming in slightly below expectations and Australian retails sales also disappointing.

Forex Trading

On forex markets there are really only two major themes to be aware of this morning.

The first is the ongoing strength in the Swiss Franc which made another record low against the euro (EUR/CHF) in early trading and two month lows against the US dollar (USD/CHF).

The second move of note is the ongoing weakness in the Aussie dollar which is being hit by lower commodity demand expectations and speculators pulling out of the carry trade.

Trading Today

Coming up today we have UK manufacturing PMI at 09.30 and US manufacturing data at 15.00. Other top items include US unemployment claims at 13.30 and pending home sales at 15.00.

Should be another busy day.

The Financial Fixed Odds update by David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.