As expected we have seen minimal trading activity this morning ahead of the all important US labour data.

We have seen the markets edge higher and clearly the resilience shown in the FTSE over the last week or so, where the market has rallied for 6 straight days, has restored some elements of confidence in investors after a poor months trading in August.

That said, all traders have their eyes on today’s nonfarm payroll data and there is a sense that with the FTSE spreads market near resistance levels where we have seen sellers come in before since May, we could head significantly lower should a bad figure come out. The worry is that with September historically a bad month for equities, if we get a really bad number it could lock in a bearish month ahead.

On the flip side to that argument is the fact that this week has so far proved to be a much more positive for economic data and with expectations already very low after recent comments from Ben Bernanke indicated that the US recovery was slowing quicker than expected, there is every chance that investors could view any in line numbers as a positive.

The market is expecting a loss of 100,000 nonfarm payrolls whilst there will also be a large focus on private payrolls which some consider being a better health check of the US labour market.

A strengthening labour market will be key to driving recovery efforts in the US and globally which is why today’s jobs data, particularly in light of fears of a double dip, is so important for traders. I would expect that the numbers could add a degree of volatility to trading as we approach the close.

The banks and miners are leading the charge higher for European Indices yet again today with Barclays the top bank performer.

Autonomy Corporation maintains its place near the top of the FTSE 100 leader board on continued bid speculation from Microsoft or Oracle. Its shares have now rallied 15% this week alone.

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Market Commentary by Joshua Raymond, Market Strategist, City Index.

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