Today’s online spread betting summary:

• Five out of this morning’s six economic data points have come in lower than expected and its not even nine o clock.
• The main news is Japanese CPI (inflation) coming in at -1.3%, marginally worse than expected and preliminary industrial production coming in well below estimates at -1.5%.
• UK consumer confidence came in slightly lower than expected, Australian consumer credit disappointed and German retail sales kept up the morning’s negative trend.
• Also coming up today we have Canadian GDP and US GDP at 13.30 GMT. Canada is expected to show a slight rise with the US showing a slight dip.
• The Japanese data has negative implications for the global economy, discouraging risk taking, but as the ‘safe haven’ currency du jour, the news has actually strengthened the yen this morning.
• The USD/JPY has hit its lowest level since November 2009, down 0.75% so far today.
• The AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY are down 1%, with the GBP/JPY down 0.7%.
• The dollar is generally stronger against non yen currencies, with the EUR/USD down 0.25% and the AUD/USD down 0.3%.
• The main exception is the Swiss franc which is quickly regaining its status of safe haven currency #2. The USD/CHF is down, 0.35% (meaning the Swiss franc is stronger). The USD/CHF looks to have broken prior support around 1.0400.
• Gold is steady around $1169.
• The FTSE is trading down around 0.3% with US futures indicating the Dow Jones will open down by a similar amount.

The Financial Fixed Odds update by David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

AstraZeneca and Reed Elsevier were the stand out performers in a stronger trading session on Thursday, helping the FTSE 100 to erase yesterday’s losses and rally 0.6%.

The FTSE 100 seems primed for another attack at the 5400 level, where it has found resistance previously. In truth however, as we head deeper into the summer months and traders vacate their desks for holidays, there is every chance the FTSE could be range trading until September.

Company earnings are coming in thick and fast and the general theme so far has been one of outperformance as opposed to disappointment, and this has invigorated appetite for risk.

Much of today’s advances are being dictated by gains in the Pharmaceuticals and mining sectors, whilst the banks have recovered from a late sell off in yesterday’s trading session.

AstraZeneca leads on buyback and FDA Brilinta approval

AstraZeneca shareholders cheered the company today after the pharmaceutical firm raised its EPS guidance for the year to $6.65, doubled its share buyback scheme and received approval from the FDA for its heart drug Brilinta. It’s been a day of good news and more good news for AstraZeneca share holders and as a result its shares, despite having rallied 3% this week already, are in high demand and lead the FTSE 100 winners list.

Reed Elsevier earnings beat expectations

Reed Elsevier shares traded strongly on Thursday after the company reported underlying revenue of £2.99bn, beating market expectations. The news prompted Numis to upgrade its price target on the stock to 550p, from 525p. The upgrade from Numis and the fact that Reed believe they have seen some encouraging sales signs which have helped it to return to revenues growth, has triggered strong demand in its shares, which have rallied 5% in the process.

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Last night saw the latest rally in US equity markets run out of steam and briefly show signs that there could be some downside to come.

The major indices had been range trading until recently hitting a run of strong sentiment that has seen some aggressive gains. The rally had been criticised by many for having no substance and last nights move will only fuel the fire that a pullback is on the cards.

The European session again looks a little light of any key data, especially on the economic calendar. So we could well be looking to earnings yet again tomorrow to give us some direction. As the session moves on US durable goods orders will likely be a focus as will the oil inventory data. With a tropical storm heading for the Gulf of Mexico the oil spreads are likely to see some volatility.

It’s another busy day for results on Wednesday with FTSE stalwarts BG Group, BAT, Compass, Invensys, Rexam, Rolls-Royce, Sage and Centrica all fighting for attention.

Centrica, which trades under the British Gas and Scottish Gas brands, is expected to have benefited from a chilly winter in the UK. The residential business will have done well from what Citigroup called “a benign pricing environment”.

The broker is predicting operating profits from British Gas of £583m at the interim stage, up from £299m last year, while the business division is tipped to double profits to £132m.

Catering giant Compass Group will release sales details for the third quarter of its financial year. Nomura predicts third quarter organic revenue growth of +4.3% year on year (you) versus -1.7% in the first quarter and +2.5% in the second quarter.

Tobacco firm BAT should report an increase in interim pre-tax profits, with Charles Stanley pencilling in a figure of £2,460m, up from £2,176m in the first half of 2009. The broker is hoping for a boost to the dividend from 27.9p last year to 33.1p at the interim stage this time.

Ahead of the open we expect to the FTSE to open up 3 points at 5,369, the DAX up 7 at 6,214, and the CAC up 1 at 3,667.

Spread betting, FX and CFDs are leveraged products. They carry a high level of risk to your capital. It is possible to lose more than your initial investment. These products may not be suitable for all investors, therefore ensure you understand the risks involved. Seek independent advice if necessary. Note that CMC Markets provide an execution-only service. CMC Markets research and charting tools are indicative and provided for information purposes and must not be relied upon as investment advice.

Article by James Hughes, Analyst, CMC Markets.

The above content does not constitute investment advice. Neither CMC Markets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accepts any responsibility for any use that may be made of the above.

CMC Markets is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority, registration no. 173730.

The US dollar continues to come under pressure across the board, despite the high degree of cynicism towards Friday’s benign outcome to Europe’s stress tests.

Improving economic data and continued strong earnings performance have also helped in this regard, boosting risk appetite at the expense of the greenback while gold slips back near to its lowest levels since May, and also near a key trend line support level around $1,176 which links the lows from October 2008 lows at $682.50.

The Australian dollar has also traded back above 0.9000 for the first time since early May as the US dollar index continues its declines hitting its lowest levels since the end of April and heading towards a 50% retracement at 81.44, of its entire up move since the beginning of December last year.

US new home sales for June, surprised to the upside with a rise of 23.6% against an expectation of a rise of 5%, however this was a little offset by the revision of the May figure from -32.7% to -36.7% and this has encouraged a market determined to take on more risk.

In further consumer related data out today US consumer confidence for July will be scrutinised especially after the surprise falls last month, with analysts expecting a slight fall to 51 from June’s 52.9 reading.

In UK data out today the pound should continue to find support by way of the CBI’s distributive trades survey for July, which is expected to show a continued month on month improvement, showing that the balance of retailers reporting that sales were up year-on-year rose to +5% in July from -5% in June, and a 14-month low of -18% in May.

Euro – Dollar Spreads – The single currency continues to hold up well against the dollar but continues to find the going tricky just below the recent highs around the 1.3030/40 level of the past seven days. While below these peaks, the risk remains for a pull back towards Friday’s lows around the 1.2840/50. However, while above Friday’s lows the likelihood of a move towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3125, increases on a break above the recent highs around 1.3030/40.

Pound – Dollar Spreads – the pound continues to gain against the dollar matching its April highs yesterday around the 1.5520 level.

The pound’s recent rise now brings it close to a couple of important technical levels around 1.5560, which is the 200 day moving average, and the 50% retracement of the down move from the November highs at 1.6880 and the lows this year at 1.4230.

If one also includes 1.5610, which is the 61.8% retracement level of the 1.6460/1.4230 down move, then a break up through here could well target 1.5900 in the coming days.

Long term trend line support levels, remain around the 1.5190/00 area, from the June lows at 1.4350, while there is also minor support around the 1.5330/40 area. A break below 1.5180/90 potentially opens up 1.4980,

Euro – Sterling Spreads – while the euro remains stuck below the 0.8400/10 area then the potential remains for further losses on a break through support at the 0.8320/30 level.

Back above the 0.8400/10 level would re-target last week’s highs around 0.8520/30 via resistance at 0.8470. A break below 0.8320/30 back towards 0.8240, while 0.8410 caps.

Dollar – Yen Spreads – the 88.00/10 level remains the key barrier to any dollar gains here in the short term on the back of another failure yesterday to break above it.

While on the downside the 86.25 support remains the key obstacle towards further yen gains towards last year’s yen lows at 84.80. A break above 88.00/10 would re-target the 89.20/30 level while a break of 84.80 would look to target the 1995 lows below 80.00.

Spread betting, FX and CFDs are leveraged products. They carry a high level of risk to your capital. It is possible to lose more than your initial investment. These products may not be suitable for all investors, therefore ensure you understand the risks involved. Seek independent advice if necessary. Note that CMC Markets provide an execution-only service. CMC Markets research and charting tools are indicative and provided for information purposes and must not be relied upon as investment advice.

Article by James Hughes, Analyst, CMC Markets.

The above content does not constitute investment advice. Neither CMC Markets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accepts any responsibility for any use that may be made of the above.

CMC Markets is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority, registration no. 173730.

European markets are set to get their chance to react to Friday’s stress test results as the market opens this morning, and after strong gains on Wall Street on Friday it could be that we get set for a stronger open.

The stress test results offered up no real surprises on Friday as only 7 of the 91 banks failed the test. The inevitable feeling that the tests were too lenient will be the dominating force today as the unpicking of the results can begin. Despite the cynicism the stress tests results are likely to help European indices add to gains this morning and start the week off on a positive footing.

There is other news circulating around this morning, the most notable of which is the unsurprising news that BP CEO Tony Hayward is in the process of negotiating an exit package. Ever since Mr Hayward told the media he wanted his life back it seems that he had been a dead man walking, and the task now begins of not only cleaning up the affected area in the gulf but also the much more arduous task of cleaning up the company’s reputation.

More than one-fifth of the constituents of the FTSE 100 are set to make trading statements in the last week of July so there is heavy competition for attention, but there is little doubt that the second quarter update from oil giant BP is the one the market and the press are most eagerly anticipating.

The company has not spent much time out of the spotlight since the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico occurred on 20 April, but the results announcement will give the company the opportunity to demonstrate that other parts of the business have not been neglected while senior management has been fire-fighting the Gulf of Mexico crisis.

Today sees another company recently in the news, Reckitt Benckiser, releasing its interim results. The company announced an agreed £2.5bn bid for foot care and condom firm SSL on Wednesday, raising fears that the company may be finding it harder to achieve organic growth.

The acquisition of SSL has long been rumoured and some investment analysts are asking why it is taking place now, though the answer may simply be that the decline in the value of sterling has made SSL very attractive to US companies such as Johnson & Johnson and Colgate-Palmolive.

Chip designer ARM will have been among the more enthusiastic of cheerleaders when Apple announced record results earlier this week. The company’s intellectual property is used in most of Apple’s hot products and this has not gone unnoticed by the market, which has chased the shares 10% higher this week.

Ahead of the open we expect to the FTSE to open up 30 points at 5,343, the DAX up 25 at 6,191, and the CAC up27 at 3,634.

Spread betting, FX and CFDs are leveraged products. They carry a high level of risk to your capital. It is possible to lose more than your initial investment. These products may not be suitable for all investors, therefore ensure you understand the risks involved. Seek independent advice if necessary. Note that CMC Markets provide an execution-only service. CMC Markets research and charting tools are indicative and provided for information purposes and must not be relied upon as investment advice.

Article by James Hughes, Analyst, CMC Markets.

The above content does not constitute investment advice. Neither CMC Markets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accepts any responsibility for any use that may be made of the above.

CMC Markets is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority, registration no. 173730.

Traders will be heading into the weekend rather pleased with their lot. Financial markets such as the FTSE and Dow Jones have rebounded strongly after last Friday’s sell off after a slew of reassuring economic data and us company earnings reports.

Today should prove to be a stern test though – It is Friday after all.

What’s so special about Fridays?

On the face of it, nothing, it’s just another trading day right? Except that since the sovereign crisis kicked off in April, Friday has been unkind for anyone investing in US stock markets such as the benchmark S&P 500 (a wider and arguably more significant index than the Dow Jones).

Since April, Friday’s on the US S&P 500 have produced a loss of -10.81%, more than double the total market loss of 5% during that time.

It’s not just since April that Friday’s have been tricky either. Throughout 2010, Friday’s have produced an average loss of 0.5%. Although profitable over half the time, the average gain is small compared to the major sell offs like that seen on the 16th.

Is this just a quirk in the data?

Perhaps, or perhaps it’s simply the fact that weekends have brought news bombs from the likes of Greece which traders don’t want the exposure to.

A close today greater than 1.5% could be significant and a sign that traders are really ready to embrace risk again.

On the other hand, you could bet on traders following form and predict that the S&P 500 will fall after markets open around 14.30 GMT.

Forex Trading Today

There’s not much movement so far this morning but there are hints of strength in the pound and euro. However so far moves are nothing to write home about.

The main thing to be aware of today is the release of the hotly anticipated European bank stress test results. Some are expecting a whitewash, but the situation is hard to read.

Too many banks passing could be seen as a sign that the tests weren’t realistic. Too many banks failing and shock waves could be sent through the system. Personally I think the former is more likely, but the reaction to that scenario is almost impossible to predict.

Right now, no-one knows the exact time that the stress test results will be released. If it’s late Friday evening, it could certainly add weight to the Friday sell off trade idea.

Der Spiegel has a good piece previewing the tests which is well worth a read.

In addition, we have German IFO business climate at 09.00 GMT, Preliminary UK GDP at 09.30 and Canadian inflation at 12.00.

The Financial Fixed Odds update by David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

Last night US markets were heading for a third consecutive (albeit slender) up day in a row. This was until Fed chairman Ben Bernanke spoke in front of the senate committee, issuing some very cautious projections on the US economy.

Most of what he said was already presented in the recent FOMC statement, nevertheless the markets sold off all the same. Bernanke says he sees “Subdued inflation and only a gradual employment recovery the next couple of years.”

The Dow Jones finished the day over 1% lower, with the wider S&P 500 finishing over 1.28% lower after Starbucks disappointed with its latest earnings.

Forex Trading

This morning, the yen is in demand as investors shun risk and seek relative safe harbours. The Dollar/Yen is down 0.53%, the Pound/Yen down 0.45% and the Australian Dollar/Yen down 0.70%.

Away from the yen, the US dollar is mixed with small gains against the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar, but losses against the euro and Swiss Franc.

Coming up today we have a slew of French, German and Europe wide manufacturing/ services data from 08.00 to 09.00 GMT. Following this we have UK retail sales at 09.30 with a slight drop on last month’s figure expected.

Canadian retail sales follow at 13.30 with US unemployment claims released at the same time. Fed Chairman Bernanke continues his testimony at 14.30, though I suspect the market reaction has already happened with yesterday’s testimony.

Of most interest is US existing home sales at 15.00. Last month sales severely disappointed so all eyes will be on this announcement.

Finally we have the Canadian Monitory Policy Report at 15.30 GMT, followed by the press conference at 16.15.

The Financial Fixed Odds update by David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

Yet again stronger earnings news has helped to push US markets in well into positive territory after initially suffering early on.

It seems we may yet again be set for a mixed bag as the major indices remain undecided of their next big move. Earnings news from Apple could well be the catalyst for a positive start this morning as the maker of the iPad and iPhone saw numbers smash through Wall Street expectations.

On the other side of the fence was a weaker performance by Yahoo who missed Wall Street expectations. Today could well be a little quieter than yesterdays session as the economic calendar is looking a little lighter than it has done. This could well leave many breathing a sigh of relief as recent weak numbers from the US has led to some much weaker performances by the major indices.

Despite it being quiet the today will see the release of the minutes from the July meeting of the Bank of England’s MPC and these will be the most eagerly awaited for some time now. We also know that one member, Andrew Sentance, voted in the June meeting for a small increase in interest rates. The market is expecting Sentance to have been the sole dissenting voice from the preservation of the status quo on interest rate policy, especially as a couple of MPC members went public with opposing views to Sentance’s. The entire committee is likely to have been in favour of leaving the quantitative easing policy unchanged.

Tuesday’s results from Enterprise Inns should provide something of a read across for fellow pub operator Mitchells & Butlers, which brings out an interim management statement on Wednesday.

As has been the case for the other pub groups, the company is likely to have enjoyed the FIFA World Cup somewhat more than England fans though the group has a higher proportion of restaurants disguised as pubs than its peers, so the boost from the football might not be so noticeable. Later today there are also numbers from GlaxoSmithKline.

Ahead of the open we expect to the FTSE to open up 50 points at 5,189, the DAX up 52 at 6,019 and the CAC up 54 at 3,512.

Spread betting, FX and CFDs are leveraged products. They carry a high level of risk to your capital. It is possible to lose more than your initial investment. These products may not be suitable for all investors, therefore ensure you understand the risks involved. Seek independent advice if necessary. Note that CMC Markets provide an execution-only service. CMC Markets research and charting tools are indicative and provided for information purposes and must not be relied upon as investment advice.

Article by James Hughes, Analyst, CMC Markets.

The above content does not constitute investment advice. Neither CMC Markets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accepts any responsibility for any use that may be made of the above.

CMC Markets is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority, registration no. 173730.

European markets will be looking to shrug off yesterdays falls and push higher after some strong gains from the major US indices.

It is in fact looking fairly busy on the economic calendar and corporate calendar this morning which could bode well for the stronger performance from the FTSE 100 today.

Public sector spending figures will likely be then headline act of the day, another good number out of the UK could do their bit in lifting markets higher. The recent spate of strong numbers from the UK comes in stark contrast to those across the pond.

The US has had to endure some torrid figures that have shown that the US economic recovery may not be as advanced as had previously been thought. With this in mind we should also see the housing data from the US at 1330 also cause a bit of a stir.

The major equity markets seemed to be happily trading in a sideways range at the moment, with no signs of wanting to break free. The weaker economic performance by the US is being offset by a so-far strong earnings season.

If we are to get a break to the upside it could be that we would need some spectacular earnings figures, which so far do not seem to be there. However a move to the downside could well be sparked by some majorly disappointing US economic data or the re-emergence of the European sovereign debt problem. With recent downgrades to Ireland and Portugal this could be closer than we think.

The corporate calendar in the UK will start to get a little busier today with numbers from both Ryanair and William Hill. Ryanair has been in the headlines for the wrong reasons this week with chief executive Michael O’Leary forced to ‘unreservedly apologise’ and pay libel damages to Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou, the founder of rival EasyJet.

The focus will shift to the Irish airline’s first quarter results on Tuesday. Volcanic ash disruption is forecast to have cost the company €50m, but Nomura expects Ryanair to reiterate guidance of 10% to 15% profit growth. The broker is predicting revenues of €862m and EBIT of €135m.

William Hill’s second quarter trading update is expected to reap the rewards of England’s poor performance in the World Cup after many patriotic but ill-advised punters bet on victories. That should help it build on its improved performance in the first quarter.

Ahead of the open we expect to the FTSE to open up 35 points at 5,183, the DAX up 36 at 6,043, and the CAC up 27 at 3,513.

Spread betting, FX and CFDs are leveraged products. They carry a high level of risk to your capital. It is possible to lose more than your initial investment. These products may not be suitable for all investors, therefore ensure you understand the risks involved. Seek independent advice if necessary. Note that CMC Markets provide an execution-only service. CMC Markets research and charting tools are indicative and provided for information purposes and must not be relied upon as investment advice.

Article by James Hughes, Analyst, CMC Markets.

The above content does not constitute investment advice. Neither CMC Markets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accepts any responsibility for any use that may be made of the above.

CMC Markets is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority, registration no. 173730.

On a week when the results of the European bank stress tests are due, and on the back of the single currency’s best week in over a year, the last thing the politicians needed was something to puncture that mood, however Hungary provided it after the IMF and the European Union withdrew a €20bn financing deal over the weekend in response to concerns over the Hungarian governments budget plans.

If a warning were needed of the problems facing Europe this is a stark reminder and will do nothing to assuage investor concerns about the problems Europe has with respect to sovereign debt.

The recent shift in focus towards the problems in the US doesn’t change the fact that the recent optimism with respect to the results of Friday’s stress tests could well be misplaced, given concerns about the stringency of the criteria being adopted to assess the banks financial health.

Anyone who thinks that the euro’s problems are now over only needs to look at Hungary and the recent rally actually does nothing to resolve these problems in the peripheral countries, as it makes them all less competitive from an export point of view.

In the UK recent housing data released by Rightmove has shown that house prices appear to have peaked, as month on month house prices declined by 0.6% in July.

With no UK data of note until tomorrow when the latest public finance figures are released, the pound will in all likelihood remain somewhat sidelined until Friday where the first release of Q2 GDP should indicate that the economy grew by as much as 0.6%, while we will have to wait until tomorrow for the first data release of the week in the US where the latest housing data is expected to make grim reading.

Today’s events are likely to be dominated by the situation in Hungary with the focus very much on the single currency, and whether it can continue its recent good run.

EUR/USD – having touched 1.3000 at the end of last week the next price objective in the medium term lies at 1.3125 which is the 38.2% retracement of the down move from the highs at 1.5145 to the 1.1880 lows.

The single currency should find support around 1.2880, while a break below here would target a deeper correction back towards the 1.2750/60 area.

GBP/USD – the correction lower on Friday was not good news for the firmer sterling scenario, failing just short of the April highs above 1.5500 at 1.5475. It is however not completely ruled out as long as we stay above the 1.5230/40 level which acted as quite strong resistance on a number of occasions in the last 2 weeks.

A daily close above 1.5345 would signal a test toward 1.5610 which is the 61.8% retracement of the down move from the 2010 peaks at 1.6460 to the lows at 1.4230.

EUR/GBP – the unexpected break above the 0.8400 level throws into doubt our lower euro scenario and now targets the 0.8520 level.

The 0.8400/10 area should now act as significant support for this move higher. Any move below the 0.8400/10 re-targets the 0.8320/30 level.

USD/JPY – the yen continues to benefit from a double whammy of sliding dollar yields as well as diminished risk appetite after it broke below its June lows at 86.95 on Friday. This break below these lows now opens up the risk of a move to last year’s yen lows at 84.80, a break of which would open up levels last seen in 1995.

Any rallies would need to overcome the pivotal 88.00/10 area to stabilise and re-target 89.20, a break of which would re-target the 90.00 area.

Spread betting, FX and CFDs are leveraged products. They carry a high level of risk to your capital. It is possible to lose more than your initial investment. These products may not be suitable for all investors, therefore ensure you understand the risks involved. Seek independent advice if necessary. Note that CMC Markets provide an execution-only service. CMC Markets research and charting tools are indicative and provided for information purposes and must not be relied upon as investment advice.

Article by Michael Hewson, Analyst, CMC Markets.

The above content does not constitute investment advice. Neither CMC Markets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accepts any responsibility for any use that may be made of the above.

CMC Markets is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority, registration no. 173730.