Online Spread Betting Blog » Financial Markets

USD/JPY Continues Bearish Trend as Yen Slips for Fifth Straight Day

James — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 10:04:48 +0000

This morning’s main mover is the Japanese yen which is falling back for the fifth day in a row.

The USD/JPY is up 0.26% with other yen pairs such as the EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY up by 0.45%.

The euro continues to hint at expectations for a positive outcome for the Greek debt negotiations, though today’s gains are small and could be reversed with one headline.

Looking at other dollar pairs, the NZD/USD is up 0.18% this morning, but has remained remarkably range bound for much of February.

Trading Today

The UK comes under focus today with a string of economic data points.

This starts with manufacturing production and trade balance at 09.30. Improved readings are expected for both.

At 12.00 we have the latest interest statement with no change expected. The big speculation surrounds the increase in quantitative easing which many are now expecting.

The ECB rate statement follows with no change again expected at 12.45, though the press conference could once gain make for interesting listening.

At 15.00, we have the latest UK GDP estimates.

NZD/USD Trading Idea

The NZD/USD FX spread betting market has halted its strong run up seen in January, trading in a tight range since the 1st of Feb. This is relatively unusual for a strong trend following pair, which presents an opportunity.

An IN/OUT trade predicting that the NZD/USD will close outside of either 0.8275 or 0.8425 in 1 days time could return 155% if successful.

Editor’s note: If you lose a financial fixed odds trade you lose 100% of your stake.

The Markets Yesterday Afternoon

Yesterday afternoon, risk appetite waned on uncertainty surrounding the ECB’s exact contribution/liabilities with regard to the Greek bailout.

The euro was relatively unchanged on the day, but there was certainly more of a ‘risk off’ mentality throughout the day with the NZD/USD reversing early gains to trade down 0.24% on the day.

The British pound was the biggest mover on talk that the Bank of England’s latest minutes will show that the printing presses are about to be opened again.

The GBP/USD was down 0.45% with the EUR/GBP down 0.53%.

Elsewhere in gold spread betting, gold was off by 0.60% as the dollar gains the upper hand.

Before trading with spread betting, CFDs or financial fixed odds ensure you only speculate with money that you can afford to lose and that you fully understand the risks involved. These products may not be suitable for all investors, seek independent financial advice where necessary.

Note that spread betting and CFD trading carry a high level of risk to your capital and you can lose more than your initial investment.

The Financial Fixed Odds update by David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

This website content does not constitute investment advice. No individual contributor, contributing company, BetOnMarkets nor Online-Spread-Betting.com accept any responsibility for any use that may be made of the content.

FX Trading: Weak Japanese Economic Sentiment Sees USD/JPY Rally

James — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 09:43:33 +0000

This morning the higher yielding currencies of the Australian and New Zealand dollar are leading FX trading markets higher.

Confidence appears to be returning slowly with US stock markets last night closing at six month highs.

The AUD/USD is up 0.27% with the NZD/USD up 0.31%.

The yen pairs are seeing the biggest movement though with the yen backing off again this morning following worse than expected Japanese economic sentiment.

The USD/JPY is up above 77.00 once again, with the AUD/JPY rallying 0.70%.

The euro is lagging slightly, but the EUR/JPY is still up 0.56% on the day.

Gold is also continuing to rebound after Friday’s slump, trading just shy of the $1750 level.

Trading Today

Coming up today we have Canadian housing starts at 13.15.

US crude inventories follow at 15.30 with FOMC member Williams speaking at 15.40.

EUR/USD Trading Idea

The EUR/USD rallied sharply yesterday on expectations to the latest Greek debt negotiations.

However, the euro crisis has shown time and again that nothing is as straight forward as it seems with one hurdle cleared only for the next problem to appear on the horizon.

The EUR/USD has also been a good counter trend currency over the last 12 months, so there could be some potential for downside here. A LOWER trade predicting that the EUR/USD closes below 1.3200 in 1 days time could return 144%.

Editor’s note: If you lose a financial fixed odds trade you lose 100% of your stake.

The Markets Yesterday Afternoon

The euro rallied heavily yesterday afternoon on growing expectations that a deal would be done on the latest Greek bailout.

Many reliable sources suggested that major negotiating points such as reducing the minimum wage have been agreed upon.

While this is welcome, there is no doubt this is not the end of Greece’s problems.

It is best seen as having cleared the latest hurdle, with more hurdles to come.

The EUR/USD was up 1.01% with the EUR/JPY up 1.44% and the EUR/GBP up 0.55%.

The yen backed off further, with the USD/JPY up 0.43%. This helped the AUD/JPY to push higher, with the pair up 1.20% on the day.

Gold spread betting markets reversed their early weakness on the back of the Greek optimism and traded up 1.56% on the day.

Note that spread betting and CFD trading carry a high level of risk to your capital and you can lose more than your initial investment.

The Financial Fixed Odds update by David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

EUR/USD Spread Betting Market Trades Lower Amid Greek Debt Deadlock

James — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 10:04:12 +0000

It certainly feels like Groundhog Day with the Greek debt talks reaching a deadlock once again over the weekend.

Once again we are re-assured that things will be sorted in the next few days and once again spread betting markets appear to be giving the negotiations the benefit of some doubt.

The euro is trading lower this morning, but there is not an all out collapse that one might expect if Greek negotiations were really to fail.

This either implies that FX spread betting markets expect a deal to be done at some point, or that a Greek debt default is already priced in.

The latter scenario is especially dangerous, because as the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy showed financial markets are not as efficient as some would lead us to believe.

The EUR/USD is down 0.64% with the EUR/JPY down 0.55% and the EUR/GBP down 0.38%.

The US dollar is having a good day across the board with commodity currencies dropping off following disappointing UK retail sales. The AUD/USD is down 0.51% with the NZD/USD down 0.65%.

The pound is showing signs of relative strength though after Halifax House Price figures came in ahead of estimates. The GBP/USD is down just 0.25%.

Trading Today

Coming up today we have European Sentix Investor confidence at 09.30 followed by German factory orders at 11.00.

Canadian Ivey PMI follows at 15.00 with a drop expected.

EUR/USD Trading Idea

The Greek debt talks once again in deadlock, the EUR/USD once again has become stuck in a range between 1.3200 and above 1.3000.

With the month’s big US jobs announcement out of the way, there could be a chance of the pair breaking this range in the next few days.

A way to trade this might be an IN/OUT trade predicting that the EUR/USD closes outside of either 1.3250 or 1.2850 in 2 days time for a potential return of 264%.

Editor’s note: If you lose a financial fixed odds trade you lose 100% of your stake.

Note that spread betting and CFD trading carry a high level of risk to your capital and you can lose more than your initial investment.

The Financial Fixed Odds update by David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

Spread Trading Guide to Speculating on Ocado Shares

James — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 06:26:58 +0000

Where to Spread Bet on Ocado

You can trade on spread betting markets such as Ocado with spread betting companies like:

To see which companies offer 24 hour trading, new account offers, stop losses and trading charts see Spread Betting Companies.

How to Spread Bet on Ocado

Should you decide to spread trade on UK shares like Ocado then, looking at a spread betting site like Capital Spreads on Friday, you may have seen a spread of 107.1p – 107.8p.

This means you could bet on Ocado to go above 107.8p or below 107.1p.

If you are spread trading, you trade on every unit the market increases or decreases. In the case of the Ocado market a unit is 1p of the share’s price movement.

Accordingly, you could choose to bet £15 for every penny Ocado moves up or down.

Spread Betting on the Market to Increase

If you were to buy Ocado at 107.8p and the shares went up then the spread betting market could change to 112.8p – 113.5p. If that were to happen, you could close your spread bet for a profit by selling at 112.8p.

Profit/Loss = (settlement value of the market – opening value of the market) x stake per penny
Profit/Loss = (112.8p – 107.8p) x £15 per penny stake
Profit/Loss = 5.0p x £15 per penny
Profit/Loss = £75.00 profit

Financial markets also move down, if the market dropped to, as an example, 101.9p – 102.6p, you might decide to close your bet to limit your losses. If this were the case, you would sell the market at 101.9p.

So, with the same £15 per penny stake:

Profit/Loss = (settlement value of the market – opening value of the market) x stake per penny
Profit/Loss = (101.9p – 107.8p) x £15 per penny stake
Profit/Loss = -5.9p x £15 per penny
Profit/Loss = -£88.50 loss

Spread Betting on the Market to Decrease

One of the many advantages of spread trading is that you can sell the markets.

If you recall, initially the market was priced at 107.1p – 107.8p.

If you were to go short of Ocado at 107.1p and the shares went down then the spread might change to 100.7p – 101.4p. Therefore, you could close your spread bet at 101.4p.

Profit/Loss = (opening value of the market – settlement value of the market) x stake per penny
Profit/Loss = (107.1p – 101.4p) x £15 per penny stake
Profit/Loss = 5.7p x £15 per penny
Profit/Loss = £85.50 profit

However, if the market had increased to 113.2p – 113.9p, you may decide to close your bet to restrict your losses. Assuming this was the case, you would buy at 113.9p.

Therefore, with the same £15 per penny stake:

Profit/Loss = (opening value of the market – settlement value of the market) x stake per penny
Profit/Loss = (107.1p – 113.9p) x £15 per penny stake
Profit/Loss = -6.8p x £15 per penny
Profit/Loss = -£102.00 loss

Ocado Rolling Daily spread betting market quoted as of 03-Feb-12.

Spread Betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and you can lose more than your initial investment, it may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you only speculate with money that you can afford to lose and that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.

Financial Spread Betting Guide to Trading Ophir Energy Shares

James — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 06:31:54 +0000

Where to Spread Bet on Ophir Energy

You can trade on spread betting markets such as Ophir Energy with spread betting companies like:

To see which companies offer 24 hour trading, new account offers, stop losses and trading charts see Spread Betting Companies.

How to Spread Bet on Ophir Energy

Should you decide to spread trade on UK shares like Ophir Energy then, looking at a spread betting site like Financial Spreads on Friday, you may have seen a spread of 312.7p – 314.2p.

Therefore, you could spread trade on Ophir Energy to go higher than 314.2p or to go lower than 312.7p.

If you are spread trading, you bet on every unit the market moves up or down; in the case of the Ophir Energy market a unit is 1p of the share’s price movement.

For example, you might decide to trade £10 for every penny Ophir Energy increases or decreases.

Buying – Spread Betting on the Market to Go Up

If you were to go long of Ophir Energy at 314.2p and the shares increased then the shares spread betting market might be re-priced at 326.8p – 328.3p. If that were to happen, you might want to close your spread bet for a profit by selling at 326.8p.

P&L = (closing price of the market – initial price of the market) x stake per penny
P&L = (326.8p – 314.2p) x £10 per penny stake
P&L = 12.6p x £10 per penny
P&L = £126.00 profit

On the other hand, if the market had moved down to 303.2p – 304.7p, you might decide to close your trade to restrict your losses. If that happened, you would sell at 303.2p.

You would close your bet with the same £10 per penny stake:

P&L = (closing price of the market – initial price of the market) x stake per penny
P&L = (303.2p – 314.2p) x £10 per penny stake
P&L = -11.0p x £10 per penny
P&L = -£110.00 loss

Selling – Spread Betting on the Market to Go Down

A benefit of placing a spread bet is that investors can short the markets.

The initial spread was 312.7p – 314.2p.

If you were to sell Ophir Energy at 312.7p and the shares went down then the spread might change to 301.8p – 303.3p. If this were the case, you might decide to take your profits by closing your spread trade at 303.3p.

P&L = (initial price of the market – closing price of the market) x stake per penny
P&L = (312.7p – 303.3p) x £10 per penny stake
P&L = 9.4p x £10 per penny
P&L = £94.00 profit

Financial markets also move up, if the market increased to 319.4p – 320.9p, you could choose to close your bet to prevent further losses. Therefore, you would buy at 320.9p.

With the same £10 per penny stake:

P&L = (initial price of the market – closing price of the market) x stake per penny
P&L = (312.7p – 320.9p) x £10 per penny stake
P&L = -8.2p x £10 per penny
P&L = -£82.00 loss

Ophir Energy Rolling Daily spread betting market taken as of 03-Feb-12.

Spread Betting Markets in Negative Bias Ahead of US Jobs Data

James — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 09:49:51 +0000

This morning, spread betting markets are generally quiet with a slight negative bias ahead of today’s big US jobs data.

Analysts are predicting a relatively big drop in US payroll activity from 200k to 150k, but as ever it will be any big deviations from this number that determine the trade flow for the remainder of the day.

Yesterday’s big mover, the New Zealand dollar is the morning’s worst performer, with the NZD/USD down 0.30%.

Other than this, there isn’t too much movement to speak of, though it is worth noting the relative strength shown by the EUR/GBP so far this morning.

Trading Today

In addition to Non Farm Payrolls at 13.30, we also have US unemployment rate numbers at 8.5%, followed by ISM Non Manufacturing PMI.

Prior to this we have UK services PMI at 09.30 with a slight drop expected.

Canadian employment change is also released at 12.00 with a slight increase expected.

GBP/JPY Trading Idea

The GBP/JPY has been under pressure since April 2011, but there are signs of stabilisation, especially considering the yen’s proximity to record lows.

A way to trade this might be a HIGHER trade predicting that the GBP/JPY closes above 123.00 in 56 days (March 30th) for a potential return of 203%.

Editor’s note: If you lose a financial fixed odds trade you lose 100% of your stake.

The Markets Yesterday Afternoon

It was a mixed day yesterday with the US dollar index generally making gains on the session, though this was far from being true for all pairings.

The key US economic announcements for the day came in better than expected with US unemployment claims coming in below estimates.

The British pound showed relative weakness with the GBP/USD down 0.17% and the GBP/JPY down 0.26%. This came after worse than expected UK construction PMI data.

The euro was mixed through the day as Greek deal rumours circulate.

The New Zealand dollar continued to be the go to currency of the moment though, continuing its excellent run of late.

In gold spread betting, the metal also showed few signs of pegging back, with a 0.65% rally on the day.

Note that spread betting and CFD trading carry a high level of risk to your capital and you can lose more than your initial investment.

The Financial Fixed Odds update by David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

USD/JPY Spreads Test BoJ’s Patience and Approach All Time Lows

James — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 09:39:34 +0000

Markets are cementing yesterday’s general rally with small gains or consolidation this morning.

There is not much movement to speak of thus far, but spread betting markets will no doubt be happy that yesterday’s gains haven’t been immediately erased.

The Australian and New Zealand dollar were up around 0.25% in early trading but have been pegged back as we enter the European open and are now flat on the day.

The NZD/USD is still sitting firmly above the 0.8300 level.

The EUR/USD is on the back foot somewhat with this pressure increasing as European traders get to their desks. Unlike the AUD/USD, the January high is yet to be breached.

Gold is trading 0.25% higher and just shy of $1750.

Trading Today

Coming up today we have UK construction PMI due at 09.30 with a reduced reading expected.

We then have US unemployment claims following at 13.30 with a slight drop on the cards.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before congress at 15.00.

USD/JPY Trading Idea

The yen’s recent strength will no doubt be testing the Bank of Japan’s patience, with the USD/JPY within sight of its all time low around 75.50.

With the 76.00 recently acting as support, now could be a time for a HIGHER trade on the USD/JPY.
A way to trade this might be a HIGHER trade predicting that the USD/JPY closes above 76.50 in 7 days time for a potential return of 177%.

Editor’s note: If you lose a financial fixed odds trade you lose 100% of your stake.

Note that spread betting and CFD trading carry a high level of risk to your capital and you can lose more than your initial investment.

The Financial Fixed Odds update by David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

USD/CAD Forex Spread Betting Market Rises Above Parity on Weak US Data

James — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 09:45:47 +0000

This morning markets are being buffeted by cross winds.

One big positive has been the better than expected Chinese Manufacturing PMI.

The negatives include worse than expected Australian house price figures and the not entirely surprising news that the Greek bailout negotiations are dragging on.

In forex spread betting, the New Zealand dollar has been hardest hit with the NZD/USD down 0.20%, though the pair is well off the morning lows.

The pound and euro are both down around 0.15% against the US dollar and around 0.2% against the yen.

Trading Today

Coming up today we have UK Manufacturing PMI due at 09.30 with a small drop expected.

At 13.15 we have the month’s first major announcement with US ADP Payrolls expected to show a decrease on last month.

ISM manufacturing PMI follows at 15.00 with an increased expected.

EUR/USD Trading Idea

The medium and long term prognosis for the euro is still murky, but on a pure technical basis, the EUR/USD could be ready for a bounce here after two days of pressure.

Through 2011, the EUR/USD a pair to trade pullbacks and today could present such an opportunity.

A HIGHER trade predicting that the EUR/USD closes above 1.3125 in 1 days time could return 140%.

Editor’s note: If you lose a financial fixed odds trade you lose 100% of your stake.

The Markets Yesterday Afternoon

The euro lagged far behind its peers yesterday with the distance increasing through the afternoon session.

The main catalyst had been the lack of progress from Greece and a stubbornly high European unemployment rate.

The EUR/USD was down 0.61%, but the EUR/GBP showed the relative weakness best, down 0.86%.

US data was little better, with the main US house price index, Chicago PMI and CB Consumer confidence all falling more than expected.

This was actually good news for the US dollar which moved off the day’s lows. The USD/CAD rose above parity once again while in gold spread betting, the precious metal lost $15 from the day’s highs.

The NZD/USD held up well though, up 0.80% on the day.

Note that spread betting and CFD trading carry a high level of risk to your capital and you can lose more than your initial investment.

The Financial Fixed Odds update by David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

Forex Spread Betting: AUD/USD Falls as Fitch Downgrades Four Australian Banks

James — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 09:24:53 +0000

This morning, the Australian dollar is being hit hard after ratings agency Fitch placed four of its banks on credit watch negative. The AUD/USD is down 0.91% with the AUD/JPY off by a similar margin. The NZD/USD is not far behind at -0.77%.

Away from the Antipodean currencies, the euro is the biggest faller as Greek debt negotiation stumble forward without resolution.

The rhetoric was ratcheted up over the weekend over suggestions that Greek be forced to let the EU control its finances, an idea firmly rejected by Greece so far.

It’s not the backdrop politicians were hoping for as we head into the EU economic summit today, to put it mildly.

The EUR/USD is down 0.42% with the EUR/GBP forex spread betting pair down by 0.10%.

The US dollar is generally enjoying a positive day with gold suffering as a consequence. The precious metal is down by around 0.67% on the day.

Trading Today

It’s a relatively quiet day for the economic calendar with US Core PCE Price index and personal spending at 13.30 the main item of note.

This will no doubt be superseded by any headlines coming from the EU economic summit though.

EUR/GBP Trading Idea

The EUR/GBP has been following a familiar pattern in 2012 of up days generally followed by down days. So far the balance has been such that the down days have been on average smaller than the up days.

However, with the pair trading just below resistance at 0.8400, today could be an opportunity for a LOWER trade, especially if there are some headlines from the EU summit that fail to impress.

A way to trade this might be a LOWER trade predicting that the EUR/GBP closes below 0.8350 for a potential return of 209% in 1 days time (Tuesday Jan 31st).

Editor’s note: If you lose a financial fixed odds trade you lose 100% of your stake.

The Markets Friday Afternoon

On Friday afternoon, the Japanese yen extended its two day surge, fuelled by worse than expected US economic data.

The USD/JPY was down 1.00%, its biggest single day drop for some time, with the AUD/JPY not fair behind at -0.84%.

The dollar was under pressure across the board with the NZD/USD extending its recent bull run and in gold spread betting, the precious metal rallied 0.87%.

The euro was having a fine day of it as well after a successful Italian bond auction.

Note that spread betting and CFD trading carry a high level of risk to your capital and you can lose more than your initial investment.

The Financial Fixed Odds update by David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

Financial Spread Betting Guide to Trading Research in Motion Shares

James — Sun, 29 Jan 2012 06:28:11 +0000

Where to Spread Bet on Research in Motion

You can trade on spread betting markets such as Research in Motion with spread betting companies like:

To see which companies offer 24 hour trading, new account offers, stop losses and trading charts see Spread Betting Companies.

How to Spread Bet on Research in Motion

Should you decide to spread bet on US shares like Research in Motion then, looking at a spread betting website like Capital Spreads on Thursday, you may have seen a spread of $16.25 – $16.28.

That means you could spread trade on Research in Motion to go above $16.28 or below $16.25.

With spread betting, investors trade on every unit the market increases or decreases; in the case of the Research in Motion market a unit is $0.01 of the share’s price movement.

Accordingly, you might decide to spread bet £3 for every cent Research in Motion moves up or down.

Spread Betting on the Market to Increase

If you were to buy Research in Motion at $16.28 and the shares increased then the spread could become $16.56 – $16.59. If so, you could close your trade at $16.56.

Your P&L = (settlement level of the market – opening level of the market) x stake per cent
Your P&L = ($16.56 – $16.28) x £3 per cent stake
Your P&L = $0.28 x £3 per cent
Your P&L = £84 profit

Conversely, if the market decreased to, for example, $15.95 – $15.98, you may want to close your trade to prevent further losses. If that were to happen, you would sell the market at $15.95.

With the same £3 per cent stake:

Your P&L = (settlement level of the market – opening level of the market) x stake per cent
Your P&L = ($15.95 – $16.28) x £3 per cent stake
Your P&L = -$0.33 x £3 per cent
Your P&L = -£99 loss

Spread Betting on the Market to Decrease

One major advantage of spread betting is that investors can short the markets.

If you recall, initially the market was priced at $16.25 – $16.28.

If you were to sell Research in Motion at $16.25 and the shares fell then the spread could become $15.84 – $15.87. In that case, you could decide to take your profits by closing your trade at $15.87.

Your P&L = (opening level of the market – settlement level of the market) x stake per cent
Your P&L = ($16.25 – $15.87) x £3 per cent stake
Your P&L = $0.38 x £3 per cent
Your P&L = £114 profit

On the other hand, if the market had moved up to, for example, $16.66 – $16.69, you may want to close your trade to limit your losses. Assuming this was the case, you would buy the market at $16.69.

Therefore, with the same £3 per cent stake:

Your P&L = (opening level of the market – settlement level of the market) x stake per cent
Your P&L = ($16.25 – $16.69) x £3 per cent stake
Your P&L = -$0.44 x £3 per cent
Your P&L = -£132 loss

Research in Motion Rolling Daily prices accurate as of 26-Jan-12.