Online Spread Betting: Increasing Uncertainty Raises French Yields 0
Traders in the US session looked one way and saw disappointing data, while looking the other and seeing pleasing earnings from companies like Microsoft, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Peabody.
Today though, with little US data, online spread betting investors may take their lead from GE who is expected to report Q1 adjusted EPS of 33 cents and $3.47 billion of revenue.
GE, who source earnings from so many parts of the economy, has the premise to move an equity market around that really seems to be struggling for direction at present.
However, history, if anything to go by, doesn’t provide too much reassurance, with the conglomerate having fallen 8 of the last 11 quarterly reporting days.
European markets look set to open lower after another dull and yawn-inspiring Asian trade, with traders likely to adjust positions ahead of the weekend’s drama, or lack of it, as we have become accustomed to in G-20 meeting of past.
While the fiscal woes of Europe will be talked about with smiles all-round, the real issue the market wants to hear about is whether the IMF can achieve financial commitments of $400 billion to potentially lend to Eurozone members as and when it needs them.
As it stands, $320 billion seems in the bag, although we are still to hear from BRIC nations on where they stands; rhetoric from China perhaps the most anticipated.
IMF chief Christine Lagarde is expected to give a press conference at 09:00 EDT on Saturday, and logically you will probably only hear mention of the funds if they have been achieved by that time.
Any narrative over the weekend that the total amount of funds committed is going to be over $400 billion should set us up nicely for next week and put risk on the front foot.
The German IFO is also released today, and expectations are for a modest decline in the business climate survey.
In forex spread betting, EUR/USD has been moving sideways from early April and a move closer to the April 12 pivot high of 1.3213 could be a level in which traders may look to sell. Moreover, an improvement in the IFO may see the single currency push towards this level sooner, rather than later.
It is also the first round of the French Presidential elections on Sunday and there is no escaping the move higher that we are seeing in French yields.
Part of the move yesterday was premised on Citigroup putting out a note suggesting France may get a credit rating downgrade in the next two years.
However, there is still no denying whoever gets the gig as French President needs to persuade the markets they are serious about debt reduction, plus give indications that they plan to model themselves on Germany as opposed to Spain or Italy.
Still, while everyone is rightly looking at Spain’s borrowing costs, keep one eye on French yields as well, as uncertainty may push yields higher.
The Spanish IBEX as well looks terrible, and has convincingly broken the multi-year uptrend.
Although it is clearly oversold in oscillator terms, it seems the March 2009 lows of 6702 are firmly in its sights. The index went on to rally 82% to the January 2010 high of 12240 from these lows, so we expect good buying support to kick in if it retreats further.
Ahead of the open we are calling the FTSE at 5735 – 9, the DAX at 6661 -10, the CAC at 3161 – 13 and the IBEX at 6883 -25
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Market Commentary by IG Index.
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