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FX Day Trading - 17 October 2011
Six days to save the world
Plan to be unveiled next weekend
Osborne expects "something quite impressive"
Restaurants in San Francisco have come up with a sure-fire way to boost business in these straitened times. They propose to add a mandatory 25% "tip" to customers' bills.
Even after three years of recession and stagnation, restaurants around the world are still somehow able to get away with adding a surcharge to the price of their product while firms in almost every other economic sector offer discounts. It is time somebody made a stand against this capitalist greed, perhaps a sit-in outside St Paul's cathedral by the indigestados.
The indignados in Spain, together with other anti-bank protestors around the world, will be waiting with bated breath for the crisis-resolution plan that EU's leaders will unveil on Sunday.
G20 gave them seven days to save the world and one of those days is already gone. Actually, 731 days have passed since the EU first spoke of resolving Greece's debt crisis; a crisis the existence of which, by the way, has been steadfastly denied for two years.
After such world-class prevarication it might appear unrealistic to expect anything concrete in six days. However, that is apparently the promise made by Merkozy to the US Treasury Secretary.
Even Britain's chancellor is "expecting something quite impressive" from next weekend's meeting because "there is a huge amount of pressure on them to deliver a solution to the Eurozone crisis, which remains the epicentre of the world's current problems."
The prospect of that solution kept the euro afloat on Friday and through the weekend. It starts today four cents higher on the week against the US dollar and two cents better against the pound.
The gains came despite a total lack of assistance from the Euroland economic data: Friday's offerings were a seasonally-adjusted monthly trade deficit of -€1bn and a CPI inflation figure of 3%.
Whilst 3% would normally be cause for jubilation on the interest rate front there can be no assumption that the European Central Bank will tighten policy in response to above-target inflation. If anything, FX spread betting investors suspect there may be a cut in the pipeline.
Although sterling has slipped against the euro, the single currency has hauled it two cents higher against the US dollar in the last seven days. As with the euro, the pound's gains have come by default rather than as the result of Britain's vibrant economy.
There were no UK figures on Friday and those released first thing this morning looked suspicious: Rightmove reported a 2.8% monthly increase in the average asking price for real estate on its website, while the increase for the London area was a whopping 5.2%.
The data will do sterling no harm but financial spread betting investors are unlikely to be fooled. There are no other UK or European data today.
Canada reports on vehicle sales, international investment flows and business confidence.
From the United States come the New York manufacturing index, industrial production and capacity utilisation.
With hopes still high for "something quite impressive" from the EU at the weekend, the euro ought to remain buoyant and, with it, the commodity currencies and equities.
There are no obviously immediate threats to sterling but bear in mind that it relies heavily upon the euro for its strength against the US dollar.
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'Financial Spread Betting: EUR/USD Higher on Optimism Over Upcoming EU Debt Crisis Summit', Article by Moneycorp, last update: 17-Oct-11
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