Weekly Trading Report 23 May 2011 - Last Week's Trading Highlights
Last week’s headlines were dominated by IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s arrest on sexual assault charges, but a clutch of positive data helped leading UK and US financial markets end the week higher.
UK economic news earlier in the week was less upbeat, following a forecast that retailers face ten years of weak sales growth, with consumers battling debt repayments, lending constraints and high inflation.
That outlook was reinforced in the FX spread betting markets on Tuesday with figures showing UK inflation jumped ahead of expectations to 4.5% in April. The GBP/USD rate initially rallied 0.56% to 1.6287 before slipping back.
On Wednesday the MPC’s minutes revealed inflation is expected to reach 5% this year and will likely stay above its 2% target rate through 2012.
The minutes confirmed that policymakers voted 6-3 to maintain the UK base rate at 0.5%, the fourth consecutive month that three members have voted to raise interest rates.
Also released midweek, the latest unemployment numbers fell by 36,000 to 2.46 million, reducing the overall rate to 7.7%. The data lifted confidence in the sustainability of the UK economic recovery.
A further boost was received with news April retail sales jumped 1.1% from March, ahead of expectations.
Two UK retailers not performing so well include Mothercare and HMV.
On Wednesday the former announced plans to close almost a third of its UK stores, after year-on-year profit dropped from £32.5 million to £8.8 million.
Elsewhere in shares spread betting news, debt-laden HMV has agreed to sell its Waterstone’s book stores to Russian billionaire Alexander Manut for £53 million.
Across the Atlantic, Mr Strauss-Kahn bowed to pressure and announced his resignation as head of the IMF on Wednesday evening.
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Weekly Trading Report 23 May 2011 - The Week Ahead
Indicators
In a fairly quiet week, the ONS reveals preliminary first-quarter UK GDP on Wednesday. This may prove a gloomy affair given recent slashes to growth forecasts from the CBI and BoE, with analysts predicting it to have stagnated at 0.5%.
Attention then switches across the pond, where final first-quarter US GDP and initial jobless claims are unveiled on Thursday.
Company Results and Reports
This week also brings the retail sector into focus, with UK May CBI sales on Tuesday and the GfK and University of Michigan consumer confidence reports on Friday providing insight into the world of the spending public.
The focus on retail continues into the corporate reporting season. Results published throughout the week include high street names M&S, JJB Sports, Costco, Spam owner Hormel Foods, Heinz and Britvic, as well as luxury retailers Ralph Lauren, Burberry and Tiffany & Co.
British Land and Antofagasta represent the non-retailers on Monday and Thursday.
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Weekly Trading Report 16 May 2011 - Last Week's Trading Highlights
In a disappointing week for the UK economy, the CBI trimmed its 2011 GDP forecast to 1.8% on Monday, blaming high inflation and government cuts for strangling household spending.
On Wednesday the Bank of England similarly cut domestic growth expectations from 2% to 1.75%, while predicting that inflation could reach 5% later this year. The Halifax's monthly house price index also fell, down 1.4% in April.
Also in the online spread betting markets, the UK's banking sector endured a tough week as HSBC announced a 14% year-on-year fall in quarterly profit on Monday and together with Barclays, RBS and Lloyds abandoned a legal battle over payment protection insurance.
Retailers fared better, after the BRC reported a 5.2% rise in like-for-like sales in April – with warmer weather and the royal wedding helping to boost the numbers. Supermarket group Sainsbury's announced a 12.8% rise in annual profit on Wednesday.
In the US, Disney suffered a second-quarter fall in profit, losing 1% year-on-year, while Microsoft's takeover of Skype had analysts questioning the $8.5 billion price tag. Shares in the software giant were unaffected, however. Retail sales in the US were on the rise, meanwhile, with the 0.5% April increase largely down to a 2.7% climb in petrol prices.
On Tuesday, budget UK airline easyJet blamed the sharp rise in fuel costs for its £153 million loss over the six months to March. The commodities spread betting markets fell hard on Thursday, however, as consumer sentiment and heavy speculation wound down.
Ever-volatile silver fell 35% from its all-time high two weeks ago, while oil and industrial metals also dropped.
Elsewhere in Europe, Eurozone GDP for Q1 rose 0.8%, with Germany's 1.5% increase the standout performer. Heavily-indebted Greece surprised analysts with 0.8% growth, despite receiving a credit rating downgrade from S&P on Monday. Similarly-struggling Portugal, on the other hand, slid back into recession after a second quarter's contraction.
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Weekly Trading Report 16 May 2011 - The Week Ahead
Indicators
Inflation data begins an important week of UK economic announcements on Tuesday, with attention then switching to Wednesday's May MPC minutes.
Also released midweek are the latest UK unemployment figures, while retail sales data on Thursday provides insight into the battle of the high street against the dual constraints of inflation and limited consumer spending.
Across the pond, housing starts provide a snapshot of the construction industry on Tuesday, with attention also focused on Wednesday's FOMC's minutes.
Company Results and Reports
Wal-Mart and Home Depot kick off US corporate reporting on Tuesday, with first-quarter figures due from both retail behemoths. PC manufacturer Dell and industry peer Hewlett Packard then go head-to-head on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.
Closer to home, Vodafone unveil annual numbers on Tuesday, before a busy day on Thursday sees full-year reports from SABMiller and energy companies National Grid and Scottish & Southern Energy.
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Weekly Trading Report 9 May 2011 - Last Week's Trading Highlights
Despite a strong start for equities following news of Osama bin Laden’s death on Monday, reduced risk appetite soon reversed the FTSE 100’s early gains.
Energy stocks and miners took the brunt as falling commodity prices set alarm bells ringing.
News that Lloyds posted a first-quarter loss of £3.47 billion on Thursday also caused tremors across the banking sector. The bailed-out banker set aside £3.2 billion for insurance mis-selling claims, more than double the figure analysts had expected.
In contrast, RBS did not make any provision for mis-sold claims in their first-quarter update on Friday, reporting a loss of £528 million.
The BoE and ECB conformed to expectations on Thursday, keeping interest rates at 0.5% and 1.25% respectively. The MPC will no doubt have considered a series of disappointing PMI data, with growth in manufacturing, construction and the UK’s largest sector, services, all slowing in April compared to March.
Meanwhile, the rising dollar and concerns about the strength of the US economy prompted a fall in oil prices. The record oil sell-off on Thursday saw other commodities trading sharply lower, with silver down more than 27% on the same day.
Nervous spread betting investors were thankful for positive US non-farm payroll data on Friday. Over 200,000 new jobs were added in April, prompting a rally across global markets.
In the Eurozone, Portugal confirmed its bail-out details on Wednesday, with a warning that harsh austerity measures will see it sink into recession.
Meanwhile, in what proved to be a volatile trading week, several UK blue-chips released encouraging results. Despite the CBI confirming a third month of lacklustre retail performance in April, Next bucked the trend to announce an increase in its annual profit forecast on Wednesday, with quarterly sales up 5.2% year-on-year.
Supermarket group Morrisons also revealed better-than-expected sales on Thursday, after attracting record numbers of customers to its stores.
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Weekly Trading Report 9 May 2011 - The Week Ahead
Indicators
The UK reverts to a full five days at work this week, but there’s still a slightly subdued look to the economic calendar. Wednesday brings the latest trade balance data, shortly before the Bank of England’s inflation report, followed on Thursday by industrial and manufacturing production figures.
The US publishes its own trade figures on Wednesday, before focusing on inflation with PPI and CPI data on Thursday and Friday respectively.
Company Results and Reports
The UK’s company results should cast some light on the embattled travel sector this week. Holiday firm Thomas Cook releases six-month results on Monday, followed by peer TUI Travel and airline easyJet on Tuesday.
In the US, Sysco opens the week with quarterly numbers on Monday, followed by media conglomerate Walt Disney announcing Q2 results on Tuesday. Retail giant Macy’s releases Q1 figures on Wednesday.
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Remember that financial spread betting is a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Spread betting may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
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Weekly Trading Report 2 May 2011 - Last Week's Trading Highlights
Company news was the main driver behind the indices spread betting markets last week, with the US earnings season hitting its busiest patch.
Most major firms beat expectations, and both the Dow and S&P 500 closed Wednesday’s session at levels not seen since May 2008.
Leading the charge were Ford, 3M, Boeing and eBay, who posted blockbusting Q1 profits of $2.55 billion, $1.08 billion, $0.58 billion and $0.48 billion respectively.
The UK calendar was also busy, with Barclays, BP and GlaxoSmithKline releasing quarterlies on Wednesday. Year-on-year, Barclays and BP posted respective Q1 profit falls of 9% and 2%, while GSK earnings were up 5%.
In terms of economic data, preliminary Q1 GDP numbers were released on both sides of the Atlantic.
On Wednesday domestic GDP returned to 0.5% growth after the previous quarter’s 0.5% retraction. While the announcement means the UK has probably avoided a double dip recession, it also shows that growth has been flat for the past six months.
In the US on Thursday, the figure was a disappointing 1.8% – behind economist expectations of 2% – highlighting a worrying slow-down in the US economy. A day earlier, the FOMC had once again elected to keep interest rates at historic lows so as not to damage the recovery.
Following the FOMC rate decision, Chairman Ben Bernanke held the first press conference of its kind in Fed history. In the conference he raised the inflation target for 2011 to 2.1-2.8%, while lowering the year’s GDP forecast from 3.4-3.9% to 3.1-3.3%.
He also announced that the current quantitative easing programme would end as expected in June. The news broadly weakened the US dollar, while gold and silver, used to hedge against inflation, hit fresh respective highs on Thursday of $1534.90 and $48.45 per ounce.
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Weekly Trading Report 2 May 2011 - The Week Ahead
Indicators
As the UK calendar picks up again after the long weekend, Wednesday shows us the money with M4/M4 lending data before the BOE’s interest rates announcement on Thursday.
Friday’s PPI figures round up a shortened but busy week. In the US employment data is firmly in focus, with non-farm payrolls and unemployment figures released on Friday.
Company Results and Reports
Company results are fairly sparse in the UK next week, but mining behemoth Vedanta Resources releases full-year figures on Thursday; Sage Group on Wednesday may also generate some interest.
In the US, energy companies bookend a busy week, with Chesapeake Energy and FirstEnergy on Monday and Constellation Energy on Friday.
Broadcast giants News Corp and Time Warner keep things moving on Wednesday, while Kraft Foods and American International Group both report on Thursday.
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Weekly Trading Report 25 April 2011 - Last Week's Trading Highlights
Last week started with a bang in the spread trading markets as the Eurozone periphery came under pressure from three separate sources.
As talks began over a bail-out for Portugal, electoral success for the True Finn party raised the possibility of a hostile Finland vetoing the rescue package.Greek officials were forced to deny reports that the struggling country faced restructuring its debts, while on Monday Moody’s downgraded its rating of Irish banks to junk status.
Market nervousness quickly spread to Spain, triggering Monday’s weak sales of Treasury bills. Sentiment had recovered by Wednesday, allowing Madrid to raise 3.4 billion euros in a government bond auction, albeit at higher yields.
Equities likewise suffered a tough start to the week as S&P revised its credit outlook for the US to negative. The downgrade highlighted the US Government’s failure to tackle its $1.4 trillion budget deficit, and caused sharp drops across global stock indices during Monday’s session.
Safe-haven commodities and oil rose in response, with gold hitting a record-breaking $1505 an ounce on Wednesday.
The FTSE 100 and Dow Jones recovered towards the end of the week, helped by better-than-expected US housing starts (up 7.2%) and UK retail sales (up 0.2%), on Tuesday and Thursday respectively.
The US earnings season began in earnest last week with financial heavyweights Citigroup and Goldman Sachs reporting on Monday and Tuesday. Both institutions beat expectations, but saw year-on-year quarterly profit fall 32% and 21% respectively.
US tech stocks provided a boon for bullish investors, as Intel and Apple comfortably beat forecasts with respective like-for-like quarterly profits of 29% and 95%.
Results were mixed for UK retailers as Tesco announced full-year profits of £3.54 billion, up 11.3% from a year ago, while Argos-owner Home Retail Group unveiled a 13% like-for-like fall in annual profit.
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Weekly Trading Report 25 April 2011 - The Week Ahead
Indicators
UK economic indicators are scarce ahead of another long weekend, with Wednesday’s first estimates of Q1 GDP expected to improve on last quarter’s winter shutdown.
Keep an eye out for US Q1 GDP on Thursday, expected to come in low, while Friday’s University of Michigan consumer confidence report rounds off a busy week.
Company Results and Reports
For the UK, Associated British Foods, Barclays, BP and GlaxoSmithKline are due to report on Wednesday, while the next day brings data from AstraZeneca, Unilever and BSkyB. US reporting gets into full swing on Tuesday with Amazon, Coca Cola Co, Ford, and UPS all due.
The following day sees releases from Dr Pepper, eBay and Starbucks; Thursday rounds out a packed three days with reports from Colgate Palmolive, Exxon, Time Warner, Procter & Gamble and Microsoft, among others.
The above content does not constitute investment advice. Neither Online-Spread-Betting.com nor IG Index accepts any responsibility for any use that may be made of the above.
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Weekly Trading Report 18 April 2011 - Last Week's Trading Highlights
The UK banking sector was boosted on the UK shares markets this week when the ICB published its interim report on Monday.
Although recommending that banks’ retail arms be ring-fenced, the report stopped short of proposing a total separation of retail and investment units.
It was revealed on Tuesday that the UK’s inflation rate slowed to 4% in March, making a May rate hike from the MPC unlikely.
The positive sentiment continued when domestic employment rose to its highest rate in two years on Wednesday.
Despite this encouraging news, the British Retail Consortium painted a dismal picture for UK retailers with the largest fall of sales on record.
Further Eurozone woes were raised across the Irish sea on Friday, as Moody’s downgraded Ireland’s debt rating to Baa3.
Fresh crisis loomed from Greece as the German Finance Minister questioned Athens’ creditworthiness. Despite a promise of austerity measures cutting €23 billion of debt, sceptical investors have asked for a record 13% return on Greek government bonds.
Friday’s news that Eurozone inflation rose to 2.7% in March could provide further impediment to Greece’s recovery. The rise may prompt further interest rate increases from the ECB, with inevitable repercussions for the periphery nations.
On the domestic company calendar, Debenhams and JD Sports both reported a rise in profit, bucking the retail sector trend.
Across the pond, toymakers Mattel and Hasbro both lost out in a battle of the playground, suffering like-for-like 33% and 71% drops in quarterly profit on Thursday and Friday respectively.
Meanwhile, Wall Street giant JP Morgan thrilled investors with a 67% year-on-year increase in first-quarter profit on Wednesday, well in excess of the 51% forecast. The bank set the bar high ahead of a disappointing 36% year-on-year drop in profit from Bank of America.
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Weekly Trading Report 18 April 2011 - The Week Ahead
Indicators
There are a number of important indicators due as we head into the long Easter weekend. At home, the Bank of England minutes are released midweek, and analysts will be looking to see whether last month’s 6-3 vote to keep rates at 0.5% was maintained.
Public sector finances are also released on Wednesday, followed by retail sales data the following day. The housing market takes the focus in the US, with housing starts on Tuesday and existing home sales on Wednesday.
Company Results and Reports
In a quiet week for UK companies, investors will be paying close attention to full-year numbers from supermarket giant Tesco on Tuesday, followed by Argos and Homebase owner Home Retail Group on Wednesday.
Over the Atlantic, the US stocks earnings season is in full swing, with updates from the likes of Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Yahoo and Apple.
The above content does not constitute investment advice. Neither Online-Spread-Betting.com nor IG Index accepts any responsibility for any use that may be made of the above.
Remember that financial spread betting is a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Spread betting may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
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Weekly Trading Report 11 April 2011 - Last Week's Trading Highlights
Portugal became the third Euro state to seek a bailout from the EU on Wednesday night, as Portuguese bond yields rose to unsustainable levels.
An auction earlier in the day saw yields on 6 and 12-month bonds rise to 5.1% and 5.9% respectively.
Portugal’s announcement came just a day before the ECB revealed an interest rate rise of 25 basis points to 1.25%.
Though this will help control spiralling inflation, the tighter monetary policy risks further damaging peripheral European economies. All eyes will now turn to Spain, whose jobless rate reached a record 4.3 million on Monday.
The ECB’s stance was in stark contrast to that of policy makers in the UK, who kept rates unchanged at 0.5%. The anaemic state of the British economy was highlighted on Wednesday, with the release of weak domestic industrial and manufacturing data.
The BoE will be concerned over Friday’s PPI figures, however, showing inflation at its highest level since 2008.
Global inflation helped push commodity spread betting markets dramatically higher over the week, with oil, gold, silver and tin all hitting multi-year highs.
Commodities were also lifted by a weaker Dollar, which dropped as Tuesday’s release of the FOMC minutes reaffirmed the US central bank’s commitment to quantitative easing.
Retailers were in the spotlight once again last week as Oddbins went into administration on Monday. The specialist wine vendor has been put under increasing pressure from supermarket chains, though its 89 stores will stay open for now.
There was also bad news for HMV, Halfords and Carpetright, who all issued profit warnings over the week. For HMV this signals the third such warning this year.
Despite this, the retail sector received a boost on Wednesday as Marks & Spencer announced like-for-like sales growth of 0.1% in the fourth quarter. Expectations were for a 2-4% fall.
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Weekly Trading Report 11 April 2011 - The Week Ahead
Indicators
This week’s economic indicators open with UK inflation and labour data on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Across the Atlantic, retail sales are due on Wednesday and PPI figures on Thursday, with consumer sentiment, industrial production and CPI following on Friday.
Unless the US government shut-down can be averted, however, economic reports could dry up if official departments are forced to close their doors.
Company Results and Reports
The company calendar is dominated by US majors this week, with JP Morgan, Google and Bank of America reporting on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday respectively.
Look out for first-quarter figures from toy-manufacturing titan Hasbro on Thursday, trailed by rival Mattel the next day.
Closer to home, analysts will be assessing the strength of the UK retail market as JD Sports reports on Wednesday and both Debenhams and WH Smith release half-year figures the following day.
The above content does not constitute investment advice. Neither Online-Spread-Betting.com nor IG Index accepts any responsibility for any use that may be made of the above.
Remember that financial spread betting is a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. Spread betting may not be suitable for everyone, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
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For previous weeks see below.
Note - Spread Betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and you can lose more than your initial investment, it may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you only speculate with money that you can afford to lose and that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.
'Financial Spread Betting Weekly News', Review by D. Jones, last update: 23-May-11
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