Football spread bettors don’t have long to wait on Saturday for the first piece of top quality action with the top of the table clash between Aston Villa and Chelsea. Guus Hiddink will be looking for a dream start to his reign as Chelsea boss, but buyers of the Blues’ supremacy on the spreads will have to ignore the fact that their side haven’t won at Villa Park for a decade. The bookies saw almost complete support from spread punters for Chelsea on their travels earlier in the season, but their recent form (two points from their last four away games) has made them easier to oppose. However, although Martin O’Neill is viewed as the Messiah in the claret and blue half of Birmingham, his record against the Big Four at Villa Park isn’t great. In 11 games, his side have only won once (although that was against Chelsea last season), going W1-D5-L5. That isn’t to say that supporters of Chelsea on the spreads should be over confident though as they have only won two of their last 13 on the road at top six opposition (W2-D4-L7).
A crucial requirement of football betting is to look at previous meetings between the sides and recent encounters between these two create quite a blurry picture. There are likely to be plenty of spread bettors who want to go under the goals spread, as seven of the last nine top flight contests have produced two goals or fewer. This fact is further boosted by 10 of the Blues’ 13 games at top six sides in the past three seasons finishing with fewer than three, as well as six of Villa’s last 10 at home to the Big Four being under this figure. However, those of us who like to spread bet know that games like this don’t always follow the patterns and last season these two clubs served up an incredible 4-4 draw at Stamford Bridge.
The return of Eduardo to the Arsenal forward line paid massive dividends against Cardiff on Monday night with a comfortable 4-0 win. It was a massive confidence boost for the Gunners and spread bettors will be hoping for more of the same when Sunderland come to the Emirates on Saturday. Players on the Sunderland goal markets – sellers of the time of the first goal or buyers of goal minutes – will be encouraged that the Black Cats have scored on their last three trips to North London. The only problem is that they have conceded three goals each time. Their last league win here was in 1983 which doesn’t augur well for the most optimistic of Arsenal spread supremacy sellers. The Gunners also have a fantastic record against bottom-half sides since the start of last season (W12-D3-L0) and eight of those wins have come without conceding. Sunderland’s recent form at the Big Four isn’t anything to write home about either, taking one solitary point from their last 10 games and failing to net in eight of those games, which will interest the spread punters who like to play the time of the first goal markets.
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Football Spread Betting 14 Feb 09
Some mouth-watering FA Cup fixtures to delight football spread bettors this weekend, the pick of the bunch arguably Everton v Aston Villa at Goodison Park. With a home advantage the Toffees are slightly favoured at 12-13.5 in the win index compared to Villa’s spread at 10-11.5 points. Considering their success in the league under David Moyes, buyers of Everton’s win index or their supremacy at 0.3 may be surprised by their relatively poor record when meeting Premiership sides in the FA Cup. They have lost six of ten (W1-D3-L6) since winning the tournament in 1995, however, those same buyers may point to their progress at this stage of the Cup – of their last five games in the fifth round, they’ve lost just once, to eventual finalists Manchester United.
Likewise, buyers of Aston Villa, pointing to their lofty position in the League might not be aware of the Villains’ FA Cup form. The last time they progressed at the expense of a top-flight side in the Cup was in 2000. Their opposition, buyers and sellers of the supremacy spread will note, was Everton. Since then, Villa have lost seven and drawn twice.
The total goals spread for this game promises to attract plenty of interest both before kick-off and in-play. Buyers of total goals, currently at 2.5, and total goal minutes (115-125) will be delighted to learn that in the eight games between these two since 2005, 27 goals have been scored, an average of 3.4, although sellers will point out that three of those eight games featured two goals or less. Spread bettors may also remember, as indeed the bookies do, the astonishing events last time these sides met, in December on Merseyside. Going into the final minute, Aston Villa led 2-1 before a Lescott equaliser in injury time only to see Villa’s lead restored seconds later with an Ashley Young goal at the other end. The final total goal minutes make-up ended at 265!
Not many teams can claim to have beaten Manchester United this season, but the Red Devils will be up against such a team in the fifth round of the FA Cup as they take on Derby at Pride Park. Buyers of Derby’s win index and sellers of the supremacy spread will be hoping for a repeat of the Carling cup fixture in January, but taking a look at Man Utd’s five away matches against Championship opponents in the FA Cup, buyers of Man Utd’s win index will feel hopeful of a profit. All five were won, four of them with a United clean sheet.
Spread bettors on the total goals market might well use this along with United’s last two results (both one-nil wins) to suggest a sell of goals, but they would be wise to consider previous matches when United have faced such teams. In the Premier League era, they have not lost, home or away, to a second-tier side and eight games have ended with at least three goals. Derby have reached the fifth round four times, and three matches have seen four goals or more – which should further encourage those buyers on the total goals spread.
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Football Spread Betting 6 Feb 09
Local derbies might have been invented for spread betting. Extra pressure on teams can cancel out differences in ability and fans soak up details of every last corner, throw-in and booking. The North London derby, the latest chapter of which takes place at White Hart Lane on Sunday, is no different. Despite the opposing fortunes of the teams since Arsene Wenger’s arrival in the Premier League, buyers and sellers of the Arsenal / Tottenham supremacy spread, currently set at 0-0.2 (in Arsenal’s favour), can note that six of the last eight encounters at White Hart Lane have finished level. Buyers of Arsenal in the win index at 13.5 might conclude there is little to lose when they consider that Arsene Wenger has lost only one of 25 league games against Spurs and just a single one from 19 against Harry Redknapp. They may not be so confident after learning of Arsenal’s poor record away to bottom half teams – a lowly seven wins from 17 games since the start of the 07/08 season.
Bookings spreads in big derby games are always fascinating and it is no different here. The Lilywhites have received more bookings points in 15 of 17 North London derbies both home and away since the 2000/01 season, whilst the remaining two were equal. Spread buyers of the Spurs/Arsenal bookings supremacy (25 points for a red, 10 for a yellow) will also be pleased to hear that in that time no Arsenal player has been sent off and only two or fewer have been booked in any one game. Spurs on the other hand have received two red cards and there have been eight games when at least three players have been booked. However, those spread punters looking to buy total bookings points (at 56-60 points) should not automatically assume that all games between these rivals are dirty. The average in the last 17 fixtures is just shy of 40 points – the same is true of the last eight at White Hart Lane.
It’s been a decade or so since Arsenal managed to shed the image of being a negative side but even so, spread punters who like to bet on match goals might be surprised that in the nine times the sides have met in the past three seasons, a staggering 38 goals have been scored – an average of 4.2 per game. Football betting on the spreads comes alive with these high scoring games, but buyers of total match goals at 2.8 will be concerned that the Gunners have only managed to score once in their past three games.
Both buyers of the time of the last match goal at 64 minutes and those who like a wager on the notoriously precarious total goal minutes spread (currently at 128-138 minutes) will be hoping that Sunday’s clash is similar to previous games. In the past eight years, the North London derby has averaged almost two-and-a-half goals in the second half alone (38 goals in 16 second halves). After the teams met at the Emirates this season, you can guarantee the buyers on these markets were over the moon. The final goal was scored in the last minute and the total goal minutes make-up was a frightening 474. Not one of the best nights for the spread betting bookies.
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Football Spread Betting 30 Jan 09
Spread bettors would have been breaking people’s necks to reach the buy button in Chelsea’s win index (spread 8-9.5) if this game was during the height of the Mourinho era, but all is not well in the Roman Empire at present. Liverpool are the 0.3-0.5 point favourites and buyers will be delighted to hear that Chelsea have failed to win any of their last nine games at the Big Four across all competitions, as well as losing their last three in the league. You will forgive spread buyers for feeling even jollier when they hear that the Reds are now unbeaten in eight games against their main rivals; but sellers can cling onto the fact that Chelsea have never gone four away games without a win since Abramovich took control (they are currently winless in three).
Chelsea have now scored 11 goals in their last four games and those buying goals on the spreads will be hoping for more of the same. However, it is worth pointing out that since Benitez took over at Liverpool, there have been 20 competitive games between these two clubs and only two have produced more than two goals. Spread betting sellers have come out well on top, as more than half (11/20) have seen one or no goals scored.
If the top of the table clash alone isn’t enough to get the spread bettors salivating, perhaps the North East Derby between Newcastle and Sunderland will whet their appetites. The Black Cats picked up their first win against their bitter rivals since 2000 at the Stadium of Light in October, but sellers of the Magpies supremacy will be encouraged that they haven’t managed to do the league double in over 40 years. Newcastle have been a funny team for spread bettors to follow this season and have now gone seven games without a win across all competitions, but they have still only lost five times in 38 games at home against sides in the bottom half since Bobby Robson left the club. Those who like a spread bet will often look at the big derby games as the perfect time to buy bookings, but they will be concerned that none of the 15 Premier League encounters between these sides has produced a red card.
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Football Spread Betting 23 Jan 09
We have an abundance of FA Cup action to look forward to this weekend and spread betting traders have the unenviable task of pricing up games where the form book often goes out the window. We’ll start by casting our eyes over one of the more familiar all-Premier League ties, starting with Man United v Spurs on Saturday evening. Spread bettors will be well aware of the Red Devils’ dominance over this fixture in recent times, as the last time they tasted defeat against the North London side was 17 contests ago at White Hart Lane in May 2001. Buyers of Spurs will be hoping Redknapp’s side can re-write the history books, as the last time they won at Old Trafford was in 1989. However, supporters will also point to ‘Arry knocking out United at the Theatre of Dreams last season as Portsmouth manager.
This fixture is a repeat of the fourth round of the FA Cup last year and buyers of United’s supremacy on the spreads will be hoping that lightning strikes twice as Cristiano Ronaldo’s 88th minute goal wrapped up a 3-1 win after Spurs had taken a first-half lead. United have a 100% record in this round of the Cup in the last six years and the goal buyers will note that all of these wins saw at least three goals scored. Spurs’ record on their travels to top flight sides in this round isn’t bad, winning, drawing and losing three, whilst six of the nine games saw at least 3 goals.
The first live game for spread bettors to get their teeth into on Saturday sees resurgent West Ham travel up to the land of Jeff Stelling to take on Hartlepool, who knocked out Premier League Stoke in the last round. The Hammers will have plenty of supporters on the spreads thanks to their excellent run of recent results – they’ve won four and drawn one of their last five across all competitions. In fact, you only have to go back three seasons to when they nearly lifted the Cup, but buyers of them in the outright index will be concerned that they haven’t made it past the fourth round since.
The FA Cup is famous for its shocks and the spread bettors who fancy the Hammers to struggle on Saturday certainly do have a few stats to cling onto. Since 1992, there have been seven occasions when League One sides have hosted a Premier League outfit and the home side has won three and drawn one. Hammers supremacy sellers will be further encouraged by the record of sides in all rounds since 2001/02; with the Premier League side only winning four compared with the League One side’s six (W6-D4-L4). Goals have been firmly on the menu at the Victoria Ground this season, with an average of 3.8 goals per game in the league. Spread goal buyers will be hoping for more of the same on Saturday, but sellers will take heart that Pools have faced Premier League opposition six times in the FA Cup at home and five of those have ended with one solitary goal.
Merseyside Derby #2 is the final live action of the weekend and those who had bought Liverpool’s supremacy in Monday night’s game would have had their head in their hands at exactly the same time as Tim Cahill’s goal minutes buyers would have been rubbing their hands with glee. It’s not often that two Merseyside Derbies come as quickly as this, but for those spread bettors who had followed the recent trends of high bookings points last Monday, they would have been very disappointed with the final make up of just 20 points.
On to Sunday’s game and Liverpool supporters will be pleased that home advantage has been a crucial factor in all-Premier League fourth round ties in recent years. In the past seven seasons, the home side has won 16 of 26 games at this stage of the competition, whilst people looking to get against the Reds on the spreads must be concerned that Everton have won only one of nine fourth round games against top flight opposition since they last won the Cup in 1995. However, it’s also worth remembering that two of the past three meetings between these two at Anfield have ended in a draw.
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Football Spread Betting 16 Jan 09
Everton make the short journey across Stanley Park on Monday evening, looking to put a dent in their rival’s title ambitions. Rafa Benitez’s side are now level pegging with Chelsea in second place in the season points index (spread of 78-79.5). However, spread bettors looking to buy the Reds, hoping that they can clinch their first title for 29 years, will be concerned that after 21 games, five teams since 1995/96 have had a lead of two points or less at the top of the table. Not one of those went on to be crowned champions.
Back to Monday’s action and games between these two clubs have been very fiery of late, much to the delight of spread bettors who have bought bookings in recent encounters. Rafa Benitez has been the Reds manager in nine Premier League derbies and eight players have been sent off in that time. The bookies traders are well aware of that though and will be pricing up bookings at around 64-68, making a buy a very risky spread betting option. In saying that, the statistics don’t lie and sellers will be hoping for one of the slightly calmer affairs. Seven of the nine league encounters have produced a bookings make up of 50 points or more, with a huge average of 74 in total and 76 at Anfield.
Everton have been climbing steadily up the table this season after a somewhat shaky start and now sit sixth both in the table and the season points tally. Surprisingly, their lofty position can be put down to their outstanding away form, whilst they have generally been disappointing at Goodison. The spread betting public will be loath to sell Everton’s supremacy on the road, as they have picked up 22 points from a possible 30. Liverpool are 0.5-0.7 point favourites in this game, so the Toffee’s followers definitely have a good opportunity. However, it’s worth examining the facts in slightly greater detail. Although Everton’s form has been excellent on their travels, most of their wins have come at lower half opposition and buyers of Liverpool supremacy on the spreads will take great heart that they were unbeaten at Anfield in 2008, winning 14 of 20 league games.
The last two games between these two at Anfield have seen just one goal scored, which will obviously concern those spread betting goal buyers. An in-play strategy will be of interest to some punters in this game as the first goal and time of that first goal will make a huge difference. Interestingly, both sides have tended to be level at the break in recent games and all of Everton’s last six away games have been goalless after 45 minutes. Sellers of the time of the first goal will be hoping for a repeat of last year’s fixture when Fernando Torres netted in the seventh minute, but they should also note that Liverpool have been level at the break in nine of their last 12 league games at Anfield and seven of those have been goalless.
The early live game on Sunday sees Fulham make the short trip across town to take on West Ham. The Hammers have scored 11 goals in their last four games, whilst Fulham have also found their scoring boots, with seven in their last four. Form like that normally gets the spread betting goals buyers out in their droves, especially as the last four meetings between the sides at Upton Park have all produced at least three goals. Goals buyers often like to take a more volatile position by selling the time of the first goal, but they won’t be happy that eight of the Cottager’s last 10 away games have gone in 0-0 at the break. They have also only managed to score one goal in their last eight away from home. West Ham seem to have turned a corner of late, but there has only been one first half goal seen at Upton Park in the past six meetings, with the Hammers failing to score in the first half in all of their last seven home games. Spread bettors buying the time of the first goal will be hoping the defences do their jobs in the first period at least.
For those spread punters who can’t wait until Sunday, Arsenal travel up to the KC Stadium on Saturday evening to take on Hull. The Tigers caused one of the biggest upsets in the league this year, much to the delight of the traders the bookies, when they beat the Gunners 2-1 at the Emirates. They have begun to struggle of late though, despite their FA Cup win at Newcastle on Wednesday, and spread bettors looking to sell Arsenal’s supremacy will be hoping the Gunners don’t run riot. Five of their last six league games have produced two goals or fewer, so sellers will also be pleased that the Tigers last three games have only had three goals in total. Buyers shouldn’t be too despondent though, as seven of the 10 league games at the KC Stadium this season have produced three or more goals this season, whilst 14 of the Gunner’s last 20 away matches have also had three or more, with eight seeing at least a fourth. One of those perfect games for spread bettors to follow their opinion.
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Football Spreads 9 Jan 09
Sunday’s game against Chelsea is the first occasion United have met Big Four opposition at Old Trafford this season, but buyers of their supremacy at 0.6 will take encouragement from their recent record. They have won seven of the last nine since the start of the 2005/06 season and have won two and drawn one in the last three meetings here between the sides. Spread bettors have made a habit of profiting from the time of the first United goal in recent seasons at Old Trafford and sellers have the added bonus that United have led 1-0 at the break in all of the last three games against their London rivals. There will be plenty of punters trying to take on the Champions though and sellers of their supremacy on the spreads will point to Chelsea’s excellent away form this season. Interestingly, in the Premier League, there have been eight previous occasions when a team undefeated in eight matches at home has hosted a team undefeated in eight away. It is the away team which has the slight advantage, winning four compared with the home team’s three, but spookily, in 2004/05 Chelsea came to Old Trafford in similar circumstances and left with a 3-1 win, going on to be crowned Champions. They are currently marginal second favourites in the season points index.
This will be Phil Scolari’s first taste of the Old Trafford atmosphere and both he and supporters of his side on the spreads will be hoping it doesn’t turn out to be bitter. However, the signs don’t bode particularly well, as only two out of 12 new Big Four managers who have visited Old Trafford for the first time have ended up winning the game: Phil Thompson with Liverpool in 2001/02 and Mourinho with Chelsea in 2004/05. Spread bettors know that United’s games at home are their bread and butter and the buyers at 0.6 will be further boosted that Chelsea haven’t won any of their last eight games at the Big Four across all competitions. Another unexpected statistic, which will be of interest to in-running punters, is that they have gone into half-time losing all eight of these games – failing to score in the first period in all of them. Buyers of the time of the first Chelsea goal also have more reason for post-festive cheer, as United have now registered seven straight league clean sheets – a record for them in the Premier League.
High tempo, high aggression and high scoring games are the key strings to a buying spread bettor’s bow. True, games between these two, as with all members of the Big Four, can be very fiery, but buyers of total goals won’t be shouting from the rooftops by looking at the stats. First of all, all eight of Chelsea’s last eight away ties at the Big Four have ended with less than three goals, whilst eight of United’s last 12 hosting the Big Four have been under this figure. Spread buyers, of both total goals and United supremacy, will also be concerned that the Red Devils have only scored more than one goal against the Blues once (last season’s 2-0 victory here) in 16 games since Abramovich took over at Stamford Bridge. In fact, the average number of goals in those 16 matches is just 1.75 per game, but sellers should also take into account that the last five between the sides have all produced two or three.
The fare earlier in the afternoon at Wigan isn’t quite as mouthwatering, but there should be plenty to whet the spread betting public’s appetite before the big one at 4pm. The Latics are the 0.1-0.3 favourites in this one, but buyers of Steve Bruce’s side will be hoping they can re-write the history books, as they’ve never beaten Spurs in eight attempts, including a 3-1 FA Cup defeat last weekend. However, spread bettors shouldn’t necessarily desert Wigan if the stats are to be believed. They have won three straight league wins and have picked up 15 points from their last 18 – an ominous sign for those hoping to buy Spurs in the win index. The North London side have an abysmal record at sides who have won their last three home games, drawing five and losing six of them. Wigan, much to the joy of those pressing the buy button, have won eight, drawn three and lost only four at home against sides who have collected between two and four points in their previous three away games.
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Football Spreads 2 Jan 09
The turkey sandwiches have nearly all gone, we’re all half a stone heavier and there’s a week off in the Premiership. It’s not all doom and gloom though, as we’ve got FA Cup weekend to look forward to – always some of the most difficult games for the bookies to price up. We’ll start with Wigan’s trip to White Hart Lane on Friday night and Steve Bruce will be hoping to become the first Latics manager ever to defeat the North London club. Spread bettors will be interested to learn that although Wigan have never beaten Spurs, they have drawn four of the last seven, including a goal-less draw here in September. Harry Redknapp’s side are the clear favourites in this game with a supremacy spread of 1.2-1.4, but it may be the total goals market which will get punters interested. The last two games between these sides have only produced two goals, which will please sellers at 2.4, but prior to that, the previous five games had averaged 4.2 goals per game.
The big game on Sunday sees Man United travel down to struggling Southampton for a 4pm kick-off. United are understandably the clear favourites at 1.8-2, but sellers of their supremacy on the spreads will take encouragement that the Saints have won two of the last five league encounters between the two clubs on the south coast. They have been struggling in the Championship this season though and have now lost three and drawn three of their last six games. Worryingly for those spread punters who are hoping for an early Saints goal is that they have only managed to score three goals in their past seven games at St Mary’s. Buyers of the time of the first Southampton goal will also point to the last time these sides met in the FA Cup here; a 4-0 trashing in 2005, with goals from Keane, Ronaldo and Scholes.
Many spread betting punters will highlight FA Cup games as the perfect contests to get stuck into the bookings markets. Well, if you look at the Saints last two league games, the buyers are likely to start licking their lips, as there have been 60 and 50 points handed out respectively. However, United and Southampton obviously aren’t the teams to rile each other, as the average make-up for the last 10 games between the two is just 15. In fact, there haven’t been more than three yellow cards dished out in any of the past 14 games between the sides.
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Football Spreads 19 Dec 08
We are approaching the crucial Christmas period for the Premier League and one game that has had the bookies salivating is the match between Arsenal and Liverpool at the Emirates. These sides are the only two of the Big Four with a 100% record against other members of the Big Four this season. That will have come to an end on Sunday evening and according to the supremacy market at 0.1-0.3 in favour of Arsenal, there is very little to choose between them.
Buyers of the league leader’s win index will take confidence that the Reds are the only team that Arsenal have lost more games against than won under Wenger (of the sides they have played more than once). Buyers of Arsenal’s win index, set only very slightly higher, will be justifying their decision with the fact that the Gunners are unbeaten in ten at home against Liverpool. They can add to their argument Benitez’s dreadful record against the Big Four in his first few seasons, losing 12 of their first 15 away games and his side only scoring in three of those games. However, they haven’t lost any of their last four and have scored in all of these games – as I’m sure any winner on the supremacy spreads, win index or goals markets for Liverpool will be happy to tell you.
The fans haven’t been disappointed when watching games between these two in recent years and neither have spread buyers on the total match goals. Goals have averaged 3.8 goals per game in the last five seasons across all competitions and only one game in the last 16 has had less than two goals. Those spread bettors to have had a punt on goals between Arsenal and Liverpool previously might well have been stung if they based their assumptions on the Big Four in general - during the same period, games involving the rest of the Big Four have averaged exactly half the number of goals (1.9 goals per game).
Both early buyers of their season points total and manager Luis Felipe Scolari hope Chelsea can further their record of 11 successive away victories as they travel to Goodison Park for Monday’s match. We all know how strong Chelsea are on their travels, but buyers of their supremacy will want to delve a little deeper. The Blues have now won 20 of their last 23 away from the Bridge, and 23 of 27 at top-half sides (not including the Big Four) since 2004/05. Of course, it’s Chelsea’s steadfast defence which has proved invaluable on the road. Buyers of the Blues’ supremacy in previous games and the majority of sellers of total goals will be extremely thankful for it no doubt - 10 of Chelsea’s 11 straight away wins have been to nil (five 2-0’s and two 1-0’s).
Against sides in the top half, excluding the Big Four, their ten 2-0 wins from a total of 20 wins to nil since 2004/05 look especially pleasing for buyers in the supremacy spread in this game, currently set at 0.8-1 in Chelsea’s favour. Before punters grab the mouse to buy the time of Everton’s first goal, they should note that the Merseysiders actually have a good history of scoring against the Big Four. In the last 20 games against the top sides, the Toffees have failed to score in just five. Although the spread betting public should be aware that three of these have been in Everton’s last six against the Big Four.
The claret and blues take on the other claret and blues at Upton Park this weekend. The bookmakers suggest Villa are the slight favourites (12-13.5 on the win index to West Ham’s 10-11.5). Buyers of total goals, at 2.6-2.8 will be delighted to learn that in the last year, two thirds (10/15) of West Ham’s home games against non-Big Four teams have produced at least three goals and six of those have seen at least four. Over the same period, 11 of Villa’s 13 away to non-Big Four teams have featured three or more goals, and six have seen at least four. Spread punters expecting a big win either way on Saturday might think again though – in nine games since Villa last triumphed here, there have been seven draws.
An interesting spread market is the corners market, allowing bettors to wager not only on the total number of corners, but also the supremacy of one team over another in terms of corners taken. Dating back to the start of last season, Villa’s away games (excluding those against the Big Four) are averaging over 13 corners per game, with two thirds of them (14/21) seeing at least that number and an average multi-corners total (number of first-half corners multiplied by number in second-half) of 42. West Ham’s equivalent home sample of games average just fewer than 13 per match (12.7), with 13 of the 22 resulting in at least 13 corners and an average multi-corners total of 39. Sellers on the spreads will therefore be hoping for a reduced amount of goalmouth action, or at least keepers holding onto the ball rather than tipping it round the post.
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Champions League Spread Betting 12 Dec 08
Finally, the final 16 for the Champions League are now known and the bookmakers have Barcelona in as favourites in the outright index with a spread of 42-45 (winner = 100, runner-up = 75, lose semi-final = 50, lose quarter-final = 25, last 16 = 10, all others = 0). Sellers of their supremacy will be glad that Spanish clubs have only made three semi-final appearances in the last four years, whilst patriotic spread bettors buying the English sides have much more in their favour in recent times, with nine appearances in the last four seasons. In saying that, Chelsea are joint-second favourites with Man United (41-44 spread) and the fact that they didn’t win their group could prove ominous. In the past 12 years, eight champions had topped their qualification pool, whilst just under 75% of the last 24 finalists had been group winners.
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Football Spreads 12 Dec 08
The bookies will be well aware of Arsenal’s record against Middlesbrough ahead of the televised match at the Riverside on Saturday. Excusing Stoke and Hull, who each have a 100% win record after just the one game, Arsenal’s worst record in the league against any club dating back to 05/06 is against ‘Boro (W1-D3-L2). Half of these games were 1-1 draws, but before both sellers of total goals and sellers of Arsenal’s supremacy on the spreads get too excited, we should highlight one of the ingrained factors that makes spread betting so exciting – the freak result. Arsenal’s one win was a 7-0 thrashing at Highbury, with a staggering final goal minutes make of 328 – undoubtedly one of the biggest goal minutes wins for punters ever.
This game should be quite interesting for time of the first goal spread punters, as the Gunners haven’t scored a first-half goal on the road in the league since September, whilst ‘Boro have scored only two first-half goals in their last 12 league games. In saying that, those spread bettors buying the time of the ‘Boro first goal should be aware that the Teesiders have taken the lead in all of the last four meetings between these sides, including have a first half lead in three of those four. The bookings index is another exciting betting market perfectly suited to the spread punter and buyers of bookings in this fixture will be willing the referee to be as active as in previous matches between the clubs. In their last six encounters, a red card has been brandished on no less than four occasions. With 25 points on offer for a red card on the index and 10 for each yellow, an average of 60 points per match has been awarded in this time, with the make-up totalling 95 in one fiery match in 2006.
Ask the casual football follower which teams have been most successful against the Big Four this season and, having heard the standard jokes doing the rounds a few weeks ago, they would be unlikely to mention Tottenham. Spurs, along with Fulham, are the only teams outside the Big Four to be unbeaten against the Big Four this season (W1-D2-L0) – which might concern confident buyers of Man United’s supremacy ahead of the teams’ meeting at White Hart Lane on Saturday. Buyers of Spurs on the win index will also be delighted by their new manager’s record against the top sides. Harry Redknapp, since bringing Portsmouth up, has gone W7-D8-L7 at home in the league against the Big Four, losing only one of his last nine — although United spread supporters will remember that one defeat was against United earlier this season with Pompey.
With respect to goals and to the mercy of buyers of Man Utd’s supremacy, Spurs have kept just the one clean sheet in their last 25 home games against the Big Four – and they have not kept one against United since Alex Ferguson’s first trip to White Hart Lane as United manager in 1987 (22 games ago). One final interesting point on this game for those punting on the bookings market is that although recent games between these sides have been nowhere near as littered with cards as Middlesbrough v Arsenal matches on average, the bookings makeup for the last Spurs game against United in North London ended up with 10 yellow cards and a make up of 100 points!
Moving onto Sunday’s big game and those looking to buy Chelsea’s supremacy against West Ham will be hoping that the contest follows recent form. The Blues have conceded just two goals all season to non-Big Four sides, keeping 11 clean sheets in those 13 games (four of five at home) as well as in over 60% of those games (52/85) in the Abramovich era. Ten of those 13 have been won to nil. In fact, if spread bettors were to look closely at the Abramovich era as a whole, over half (44/85) of all Chelsea games at the Bridge against non-Big Four teams have ended in a win to nil.
It will be no surprise to those punters familiar with spread betting that Chelsea, at 19.5-21, are big favourites on win index. West Ham have failed to score in eight of their 14 trips to the Big Four since their promotion, as well as in eight of their last 11 home and away (five of six on the road) since the start of last season. Buyers of West Ham’s spread on the win index will be hoping for at least a draw, something that they did manage away to another of the Big Four, Liverpool, only last week. Sellers on the total goals spread will be hoping for the same, and may well have based their betting decision on the last two times West Ham have made the short journey across the capital to Stamford Bridge – both 1-0 wins in Chelsea’s favour.
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Football Spreads 4 Dec 08
Unsurprisingly, Chelsea are clear 1.0-1.2 goal favourites for their tie at Bolton on Saturday. Spread bettors looking to make a quick buck may be tempted by selling the supremacy after Chelsea’s recent poor run of three without a win, but maybe those punters should think again - going back to this fixture last season, Chelsea have won 19 of their last 22 away league games. Incredibly, 17 of those 19 victories have come to nil, with six by a 1-0 margin and seven by two goals to nil. Head-to-head, Bolton have managed to net in all of their last five at Chelsea but have failed to score a single goal in five against the Blues at the Reebok. Not many bettors expect a team to stand more chance of success if they play away, but in this case sellers of the time of Bolton’s first goal, at 67 minutes, might wish the match was being played at Stamford Bridge.
Discipline at the back does not necessarily indicate discipline elsewhere on the field and, as punters on bookings spreads may well be aware, recent matches between these two have not been short of cards. In the seven Bolton v Chelsea games in the last three years, 32 yellow cards and one red card have been dished out which translates to an average of 49.3 points on the index (10 points for a yellow card, 25 for a red). Sellers of bookings will be hoping for an altogether mellower affair this weekend.
Nearby, the pressure will be on Blackburn manager Paul Ince to get a result at home against league leaders Liverpool. Fortunately for buyers of Liverpool’s supremacy spread (but unfortunately for the Guvnor) the omens look to favour Liverpool. Blackburn have lost seven of their last 11 at home against the top sides since 2006/07, whilst Liverpool have won 13 of 20 at sides outside the top six since the start of last season.
Buyers of the time of Blackburn’s first goal will be pleased that Liverpool’s defensive record is second only to Chelsea’s in the Premier League, having kept 14 clean sheets since the start of last season. Total goals market for this game will be a spread of around 2.3-2.5 and sellers should be encouraged by games between the teams in the last three years. If you exclude last April’s 3-1 Liverpool victory, there have been only five goals in the six matches, an average of just 0.8 goals per game. Even with the inclusion of the 3-1 result, the average is just over one goal per game.
Roy Keane was given a hero’s welcome when he returned to Old Trafford for the first time as Sunderland boss last season. On his visit this weekend, he probably just wants a point, but buyers of United in the Win Index, as high as it is at 20.5-22, will be expecting a comfortable victory. United have dropped points in only three of their 25 home games since the start of last season, recording 16 wins by two goals or more and nine by three or more. The spread bettors latching onto United’s supremacy quote will also take heart that the Black Cats have lost nine of their last 11 against the Big Four without scoring.
The last week has pretty much summed up Arsenal’s season and there will be spread bettors out there who have had their fingers burnt and some who have profited. Following an excellent second half performance to inflict Chelsea’s second league defeat of the season, the kids were humbled at Burnley on Tuesday night; again showcasing why some spread bettors choose to stay away from having a strong view on Wenger’s side. They welcome Wigan to the Emirates on Saturday and buyers of Gunners supremacy on the spreads will be pleased to learn that they have won 22 of their last 30 games (73%) at the Emirates against sides outside the top six. Perhaps of more interest though is that only five of those wins have been by a single goal, with nine by exactly two and eight by three or more.
Spread betting punters know better than to disregard a team managed by Steve Bruce though and sellers of Arsenal supremacy should take note that Wigan have only lost one of six away games against the Big Four by more than one goal under their current manager. In saying that, the Latics have lost 23 of their last 26 games against the Big Four in the league and those spread punters who fancy Arsenal to keep their first clean sheet in the league for six games will be encouraged that of the 23 games Wigan have lost, they have failed to score on 15 occasions.
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Football Spreads 27 Nov 08
The Premier League action is fairly uninspiring on Saturday, but those who like a spread bet will be glued to their sets during the two big Sunday games. Starting off with the Manchester Derby at 1.30pm and Man United are the clear favourites to win the game (supremacy spread 0.8-1), but sellers have the added incentive that City (along with Chelsea) are one of only two teams to have a winning record against the champions since 2002/03 (W5-D3-L4). Another string to the sellers’ bow is that the last three City managers (Eriksson, Pearce and Keegan) all beat Sir Alex’s side at their first attempt at home, whilst Mark Hughes also beat his mentor in his first game against them at Ewood Park as Blackburn boss.
It’s not all bad for those siding with United on the spreads though, as City would have to be the first team since Southampton in 2001 to register consecutive league victories against the Big Four. Another boost for those buying United will be United’s record on the road after failing to win any of their last three games. In the last 10 years they have won 11, drawn one and lost one of such games.
Hot on the heels of the Manchester derby is Arsenal’s trip to Chelsea and sellers of the Blues’ supremacy at 1 will be hoping that Arsenal’s poor away record against the Big Four continues. Since their unbeaten 2003/04 season, they have only won three of 17 games at their main rivals and they all came two seasons ago. Spread bettors have counted the cost of writing off the Gunners in the past though and under Wenger, Arsenal have won three away games at the Big Four having lost their previous game. They have also only failed to score once in 19 games across all competitions against the Big Four, while Chelsea have conceded in all of their last five home games at home to the top sides – a fact that will not be missed by the spread betting goal punters.
A number of you who play the bookings market on the spreads won’t need reminding about the make-up of the Carling Cup Final two seasons ago when three players were sent off in the 90th minute for an astonishing total of 145. It will therefore come as no surprise that the average make-up in the past five games is 76 points per game, of interest to those buying the spread of 56-60. The referee in charge of Sunday’s game is Mike Dean and sellers will be alarmed that ‘Card Happy Dean’ has the highest match average for bookings points this season (52.1). Since 2006/07 he has issued red cards in just under a quarter (16) of his 65 games.
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Football Spreads 14 Nov 08
The Premier League is in full swing this weekend and those spread punters looking to pile into the Big Four again can watch all of them play on Saturday. Top plays bottom at The Hawthorns on Saturday evening. Football spread betting means that you don’t have to throw 2/7 shots like Chelsea into an accumulator, but those big-time punters buying Chelsea in the win index at 21.5 will be delighted that, not only does Scolari’s side have a 100% away record this season, but in their last 20 games at promoted sides they have won them all. The supremacy spread has been installed at 1.2-1.4 in Chelsea’s favour and buyers will take even more encouragement that 14 of those 20 games have been won by more than one goal.
The Baggies have lost all of their last seven home league games against the boys from the Bridge, but those spread bettors interested in selling the time of their first goal at 64 minutes will be hoping for a repeat of Zoltan Gera’s 56th minute strike in 2004. Since then though, West Brom have only managed to score once against Chelsea, an 88th minute Kanu strike three seasons ago. When you take into account that the title favourites have only conceded one goal away from home in six games this season, the first Baggies goal buyers will be hoping that history repeats itself.
The betting public were quick to dismiss Arsenal in last Saturday’s home game against Man United. Statistical analysis showed that a home win was more likely than a win for the champions and those spread punters who sold United supremacy would have been celebrating well into the night. The Gunners have another tough home game on Saturday though, with Martin O’Neill’s Aston Villa in town. Arsenal are the 0.7-0.9 favourites and although they are unbeaten against Villa across all competitions in 19 games, they have drawn against them in both games at the Emirates. Interestingly, the spread bettors who had sold Arsenal supremacy in both of those last two games were only minutes away from an even better result, as the Gunners equalised in the 84th and 90th minutes.
Goals have been on the agenda for both of these sides this season and goal buyers at 2.7 will be boosted by an average of 3.7 goals at the Emirates in the league this year, as well as Villa’s 3.1 away average. However, before the spread goals vultures try to clean up by buying all the way to the bank, it’s worth remembering that four of the last six meetings between these two have had no more than two goals.
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Football Spreads 7 Nov 08
One of the biggest games of the season takes place at the Emirates on Saturday lunchtime, as Man United travel down the M1 to take on Arsenal. The bookies have United as the 0.2-0.4 favourites and buyers of United supremacy on the spreads will be pleased that the Red Devils have won the last two meetings between the sides and that Emmanuel Adebayor is unable to take part. Spread bettors going on recent form will likely side with United following the Gunners’ poor result at Stoke, but sellers of United supremacy have their own reasons to be cheerful. Arsenal haven’t lost at home against the Big Four in their last nine – winning four and drawing five. In fact, buyers will be alarmed that Wenger’s side have only tasted defeat twice against the three big boys in their last 25 home games.
Perhaps of greater concern to United followers is the side’s poor record in the capital recently. They have only won five of their last 17 visits to London since the beginning of 2006 and with only one win in their last nine, the Arsenal sellers will be sitting up and taking notice. The spread betting public always like to hear of unusual trends and they will be interested to learn that since Arsene Wenger has taken over, his side have never gone three home games without a win against the Big Four. Their last two games at home against the Big Four were draws and the last eight times they have gone into a match against the Big Four winless in their last two against them, they have gone onto win the third match.
The great thing about football spread betting, as we all know, is that you can have total involvement in a game, whether that be on corners or how early the first goal is scored. Well, it’s been buyers of the time of the last match goal who have cleaned up in this fixture over the past couple of years. The spread of the last match goal is at around 59-62 minutes and buyers will have made a profit in all of the last six games, three of which the final goal of the game has come in the last five minutes.
Whatever happens at the Emirates on Saturday, Chelsea will have the opportunity to cement their position at the top of the table at Blackburn on Sunday. They are clear favourites in the season points table and their +23 goal difference is almost worth an extra point. Total goals spread punters in Sunday’s match have a difficult decision to make, as although 25 of Chelsea’s 33 away games since the start of 2007 have seen two or fewer goals, they have scored 3 or more in three of their five away league games this season. However, games featuring the top sides at Ewood Park tend to be low scoring and since the start of the 2004/05 campaign, only three of Rovers’ 18 games at home to the Big Four have finished with more than two goals.
Buyers of Chelsea supremacy and buyers of the time of the first Blackburn goal will take great heart from the fact that Rovers have only scored three goals at home this season, whilst the Blues have only conceded one on the road. Interestingly, for those going against the home side on the spreads, Paul Ince’s side have failed to score twice at home this season and those games were against Arsenal and Man United. They have also only managed to score in 25% of their last 12 games at home against the Big Four, much to the delight of those buying the time of the first Rovers goal.
Man City host Spurs on Sunday, and spread bettors will be fully aware that (still) bottom of the league Spurs seem to be on the up after a recent win against Premier League highfliers Liverpool. Conversely, City have lost two in a row, against Middlesbrough and Bolton. Punters may not be aware however, that since the start of last season, City’s home win rate (13 from 18 games) to non-Big Four teams is worse only than Man Utd, Liverpool and Arsenal. Those punting on total goals will be especially keen to know that they have won their three such fixtures this season by an aggregate of 12-0. Another statistic which will further encourage buyers of City’s win index is that Spurs have won just three times on the road since the start of last season (twice at relegated clubs), although they have lost fewer than half (W3-D10-L11) of their games in that time.
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Football Spreads 31 Oct 08
The weekend Premier League action kicks off with the lunchtime fixture between Everton and Fulham at Goodison Park. The Toffees were formidable at home last season and although the bookies still have them as their supremacy favourites (spread 0.5-0.7), sellers will be alarmed that they are the only team yet to win at home this season. However, buyers also have reason to be cheerful, as they face Fulham, a side who have only earned one point away from home so far, but also a side they have never lost to at home in the league. In all 14 Premier League games between these two teams, the home side has been victorious in all of them, so if that statistic is to be preserved, the buyers will be coming out in their droves.
Everton have scored ten goals against the Cottagers in the last three games at Goodison, so spread sellers of the time of their first goal would think they might be on to a winner. However, although Fulham’s away form hasn’t been strong in the past two seasons, since the beginning of 2007/08, they have lost only five first halves out of 22 – the joint fewest in the league. Buyers of the time of the first goal will also be pleased to hear that 50% of their away games (11/22) have been level at the break, with eight of these being goalless. Everton have only had a half-time lead in three of their past 13 home league matches, with seven of those being level at the break (five goalless).
Spurs host Liverpool on Saturday, the second time they will have faced Big Four opposition since Harry Redknapp took charge. Liverpool will be the supremacy favourites and they have lost only four times to bottom half teams in three years. Sellers of the Reds’ supremacy on the spreads will also be concerned with Spurs’ home performances against the top clubs – they have won only once in four years against the Big Four. Buyers of Liverpool’s supremacy will be encouraged by the Merseyside team’s results at White Hart Lane, as Tottenham have been defeated in this fixture in the last two seasons and have not scored at home against Liverpool since 2004. Sellers of the time of the first Spurs goal beware! A final noteworthy quirk for those bookings punters: in the last six games between these clubs, the referee has shown his yellow card just seven times – an average of just 1.2 bookings per game, or 12 points on the index.
Newcastle registered only their second home victory of the season against West Brom on Tuesday night and they will be looking for a third when Aston Villa come to town on Monday night. There were five goals the last time these sides met at Villa Park last season and buyers of goals in this one (spread 2.6-2.8) will be delighted to hear that in eight of the Magpies’ ten league games this season, both sides have scored at least once. Buyers have further reason to celebrate as all of their last eight games have seen at least 3 goals scored. Spread betting goal sellers will point to the goalless draw between these sides at St James’s last season, but they will be worried that since Martin O’Neill became Villa boss, over two thirds of their games saw at least one goal from each side (29/43). Their fear could be further compounded by the fact that 16 of Villa’s last 20 away games have produced at least 3 goals.
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Football Spreads 24 Oct 08
There are only two unbeaten sides left in the Premier League and they both meet on Sunday at Stamford Bridge, for one of the biggest UK football betting games of the season. Sporting Index, along with a number of other bookmakers, were hammered last weekend when the Reds popped up with two of their now standard late goals. Spread betting buyers of the time of the last match goal will have been celebrating in both of Liverpool’s last games, with goals in the 85th and 90th minutes. Dirk Kuyt is earning cult status at Anfield in recent weeks and he is now earning similar status in spread betting player goal minutes circles. He has scored the winning goal for Liverpool in their last two league games and the Sporting Index traders will undoubtedly be moving up his goal minutes quote this weekend.
Total goals buyers will take encouragement from the Reds’ last three games all producing 4 or more goals, whilst Chelsea put 5 past Middlesbrough at the weekend. However, it always pays in spread betting to look at more than the obvious facts and sellers of match goals have a lot to cheer about as well. The sides have met 17 times since Benitez took over the reins at Anfield and only one of those contests – Chelsea’s 4-1 win at Anfield in 2005/06 – has seen more than 2 goals, whilst more than half (10 from 17) have ended with 1 or no goals. Sellers on the spreads will also be pleased to hear that since the start of the 2006/07 campaign, 83% of Chelsea’s 23 games against the Big Four have seen 2 goals or less, with 65% of Liverpool’s last 23 also under that threshold.
From a game with a history of few goals, to another with a history of few goals – or is it? Spread bettors will be intrigued to learn that there have only been five goals in the last four meetings between West Ham and Arsenal, and only two in the past three games between the sides at Upton Park. However, although that is a worrying statistic for those spread betting punters buying total goals, they will be relieved to find that of the 19 games played at Upton Park last season, 15 featured at least one goal from both sides. That was comfortably the highest in the division, with no other home team being involved in more than 12 of such games. Throw into the mix that 13 of Arsenal’s 19 away games saw both sides score, and the spread goals buyers have greater cause for celebration. There have been 3 goals or more in all of the Hammers’ last eight home games, with seven producing 4 or more.
We have already discussed how Liverpool regularly score late goals in the league this season, but punters usually don’t have to wait too long for the deadlock to be broken at the Boleyn Ground. Sporting Index will set the spread for the time of the first match goal at around 37-40 minutes and sellers will be delighted to hear that just under 60% (36 of 61) of West Ham’s home games since they last got promoted to the Premier League have seen a goal scored in the first 20 minutes. This figure rises further since Alan Pardew left the club in 2005/06, with nearly 70% (23 of 34) of their home games seeing a goal in the first 20. Those spread bettors hoping for a tight first half will also be concerned that 61% of Arsenal’s last 23 away games (14 of 23) have had a goal in the first 20, with three of their four so far this season also seeing a goal in that time period.
Everton host Man United on Saturday lunchtime and sellers of United supremacy will be concerned that the Toffees’ defeat at Arsenal last weekend means that they have now lost seven in a row against the Big Four and have only managed to pick up two points from a possible 36 against them in the last 18 months (no points from six games at home). Football spread bettors in general, and particularly buyers of United’s Premier League season points, will have noted that they have started to hit form recently. Although they have dropped points at 12 of 20 top-half sides since the start of the 2006/07 campaign, they have taken all three points in 78% of their 22 games at teams in the bottom half of the league (17/22).
Buyers of United’s supremacy should be encouraged by both their own recent form in front of goal and Everton’s poor goal scoring record against them. In the last four years, United have travelled to Goodison Park five times (once in the FA Cup) and Everton have failed to score on three occasions. This season, since beating Middlesborough 3-1 in the League Cup, the Red Devils have scored 14 times in five games without conceding a goal.
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Football Spreads 17 Oct 08
We’re back to Premier League action this weekend which will be a relief to the majority of spread punters. The season is beginning to take shape and Chelsea are still the hot favourites for the title in season points table. The Big Four all look to hold strong chances this weekend and the bookies will have all of them as strong supremacy favourites. However, those punters piling in on all of the Big Four will be concerned to hear that since the start of the 2003/04 season, all four of them have been victorious in just 21 of 197 rounds of football (barely overt over 10%).
Sports betting undoubtedly makes life more interesting when the action isn’t the most thrilling, and this weekend therefore looks like the perfect opportunity to have a spread bet. We’ll start with Chelsea’s trip to Middlesbrough on Saturday lunchtime and buyers of the Blues’ supremacy at around 0.8 will be pleased that Scolari’s side have now won six in a row away from home. This is only the ninth time this has happened since the Premier League began and they have also only lost two of 34 games played away at non-Big Four sides. However, sellers of Chelsea supremacy should be aware that Boro have won two of the last three between these two at the Riverside and they have also only lost two of their last 12 games at home against the Big Four. Their opponents on Saturday are the only team with a better record against the top four (lost none in last 12).
Arsenal play host to Everton on Saturday and you only have to mention the 11th May 2005 for the Sporting Index traders to feel shivers down their spines. That day the Gunners thrashed the Toffees 7-0, a result which saw plenty of spread bettors absolutely clean up. Since then though, the last three games at Arsenal have all had under 2.5 goals which will please those selling at 2.4. Spread betting is the perfect medium for in-play betting and those looking to trade out of their positions at half-time will be fascinated to learn that Everton have only been losing at the break in four of their last 36 games. Similarly, on the road they have a strong first-half record (W5-D10-L2) and of those ten draws, nine have been goalless at the interval.
One of the strengths of UK football betting is its sheer variety of markets and one of the most popular is the bookings index (10 points per yellow card, 25 points per red card). Buyers of bookings will be glad that games between these two sides have seen the referee reach for his cards on a regular basis. In fact, prior to May’s game at the Emirates, all of the previous six games between these two had ended with a bookings make-up of 50 or more. However, buyers and sellers be warned; the game at Goodison Park last season (refereed by Mike Atkinson) saw two sending-offs and five bookings (MU 100), whilst the return game in North London (refereed by Alan Wiley) only had one caution (MU 10).
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Football Spreads 10 Oct 08
The Premier League makes way for World Cup qualifiers this weekend, with each of the home nations in action. The Sporting Index traders have been working overtime trying to price markets for England v Kazakhstan – whilst there is little doubt on the likely result, there is also very little in the way of previous form for Kazakhstan, a team that only joined UEFA in 2004. Spread bettors should look to England’s performances against teams ranked 90 or above for guidance (Kazakhstan are ranked 98). Unsurprisingly, in the six matches they have played against such teams since 1992, they have won all six without conceding a goal. In four of those matches England managed to score three goals or more. Kazakhstan, on the other hand, have scored just twice in eight games, so buyers will be interested that the goal supremacy is set at 2.9-3.1, whilst the spread of the first Kazakh goal is set at 80-82.
Kazakhstan’s story against top 20 sides is also as one would expect. Of six games played they have lost all six and were beaten by at least three goals in four of these matches. In fact, the Kazakhs managed to score just once – an 88th minute penalty against Greece in 2004. Spread punters are welcome to draw their own conclusions from these statistics – although it would take a brave punter to challenge Sporting Index’s England win index at 23-24.5 (with 25 points awarded for the win, 10 points for a draw and 0 for a defeat).
A much closer fixture this weekend is likely to be Slovenia versus Northern Ireland, ranked 55 and 57 respectively. Spread bettors will be fascinated by the number of goalless halftime score-lines where these two teams are involved. Going back to 1996, when Slovenia first played after gaining independence, almost half of their qualification home ties have been level after 45 minutes. Against teams of a similar ranking to NI, the figure is exactly 50%. The Ulstermen’s record in the same period is similar, with 59% of World Cup and Euro qualifiers level at the break. Punters should bear this in mind with the Total Goal Minutes market, currently set at 106-116. In the game’s total goals market, the spread has been set at 2.1 -2.3. Looking at Slovenia’s last qualification fixtures (for Euro 2008), they failed to score in eight of their 12 games, whilst NI supporters have witnessed two 0-0 draws out of their three games this season which will please the sellers.
Scotland v Norway
Scotland host Norway on Saturday knowing that a win will take them into the top two in the group. Scotland’s goal supremacy is at 0.2-0.4, but buyers will be concerned that the last time the sides met at Hampden (2006 World Cup Qualifier), the Scandinavians came out on top in a 1-0 win. Supremacy sellers, on the other hand, will be delighted to hear that Norway have a far stronger record away from home and in 35 competitive away games since 1996, they have won an extraordinary 60% (W21-D4-L10). Walter Smith’s side have a strong record at Hampden though which will be of some relief to Scots buyers and have won 25, drawn six and lost five in competitive matches since 1996.
Spread bettors will be interested to learn that the last four Euro Qualifying games at Hampden have averaged 3.5 goals per game. However, goal buyers will be more concerned when they hear that in six games at home against sides ranked between 21st – 50th in the world rankings, four of them have finished with 1 goal or fewer. Total goals sellers will also be pleased that the Norwegians have played away eight times against teams in the same bracket and 62% (5 of the 8) finished with under 1.5 goals.
Wales v Liechtenstein
Wales take on the mighty Liechtenstein, with a population of just over 35,000, on Saturday and the bookies will be hoping for a similar game to Wales’ last home tie against Azerbaijan last month. They only sneaked a 1-0 win thanks to an 83rd minute winner from Sam Vokes. Wales have played sides with Liechtenstein’s ranking profile (100-126) five times and have won them all, which will please Wales supremacy buyers (spread 2.2-2.4). They also haven’t conceded a goal in those games which will interest buyers of the first Liechtenstein goal at 76 minutes. However, sellers of Wales supremacy will take heart from the fact that Liechtenstein’s world ranking has improved from around 160 in 2002 to the present 120.
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Football Spreads 3 Oct 08
Bookmakers throughout the land breathed a collective sigh of relief when Hull managed to beat Arsenal at the Emirates on Saturday. It didn’t affect the spread betting world quite as much, but the bookies were still smiling that the Gunners got turned over. The Tigers have had an excellent start to the season, with 11 points from a possible 18, and are still yet to be beaten away from home. Some punters may then find it strange that Sporting Index still have them to go down in their season points index. The spread is currently 35-36.5 points, but buyers of their points will be intrigued to learn that none of the six promoted sides to have 10 or more points after six games have ever been relegated. Of even more concern to sellers is that, of the 11 teams who had eight or more points after half a dozen games, only West Brom have gone down, whilst over half (6/11) have finished in the top half of the table.
The Tigers were expected to be the Premier League whipping boys this campaign and were available to buy at 28.5 on the spreads before a ball had been kicked. Buyers pre-season will already be delighted that they can lock in a profit of eight points, but they will be even more pleased to hear that only two of the 10 promoted sides who had won their first game of the season (as Hull did against Fulham) were relegated. As if that isn’t good enough, over the last 13 seasons, exactly 100 teams have had double figure points after six games and not one has been relegated.
Arsenal will be looking to get back on track after last weekend’s defeat and bookies currently have them to finish fourth (points spread 74.5-76) in their season points table. They travel up to the North East to take on Sunderland and buyers of the Gunners supremacy at 1.2 will be glad that Arsene Wenger’s side have won all of their last four trips there. However, they only won last year 1-0 thanks to a Theo Walcott first half effort. Sellers of the time of the first Gunners goals will be encouraged that they have scored first in 50% of their 22 away league matches since the start of last season. Their record of nine half-time / full-time away wins in that time is second only to Chelsea, whilst the Black Cats lost half-time/full-time to all of the Big Four last campaign.
Sellers of the time of the Wearsider’s first goal will be encouraged to see that they took the lead early on at Villa Park last weekend. However, incredibly, Sunderland’s last home game against Middlesbrough was the first occasion they had scored first in a Premier League match since February. Buyers of the Sunderland first goal will also take great encouragement from the fact that they have failed to score in nearly seven hours of football at home against Arsenal.
With the samba-style of football on show at Eastlands these days, the spread betting goal buyers will be out in force for Man City v Liverpool on Sunday, especially after the 6-0 mauling they handed out to Pompey a fortnight ago. However, only four of City’s last 17 home games against the Big Four have ended with more than 2 goals, whilst more than half have ended 1-0. Total goals sellers will also take great delight that none of the Reds three away games this season have had more than 2 goals, whilst this fixture at the City of Manchester Stadium has ended goalless for the past two campaigns. In fact, the past seven games between these two have all had 1 or fewer goals – normally the ideal type of game for the Sporting Index traders; but perhaps not on Sunday.
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Football Spreads 26 Sep 08
This weekend sees another Premier League local derby for spread betting punters to get stuck into when Everton and Liverpool meet at Goodison Park on Saturday lunchtime. Buyers of the Reds supremacy will take heart that they have won five of the last 10 visits to their local rivals and have only lost two. However, in-play punters may like to wait before showing their hand, as although the Toffees haven’t been very successful against the Big Four, in the past two seasons they have only trailed at half-time in three of the 16 games. Interestingly, in 11 of those 16 they have either gone in goalless (6 of 16) or Everton leading 1-0 (5 of 16). In addition, Liverpool tend to be weaker during the first half when playing away against sides who had finished in the top half the previous season. They have only been winning at the break in four of the past 16 of such games in the last two campaigns. The total goals spread is set at 2.4-2.6 for the match and sellers will be heartened to hear that almost half of the Red’s away games against teams which had finished in the top half, have recorded only one goal or less.
The Merseyside Derby has regularly been referred to as the ‘Friendly Derby’, but the spread betting public who like to dabble in the bookings markets know that this isn’t quite true. Although both sides have two of the best records in the league for bookings points (10pts per yellow, and 25pts per red), this game in recent times has certainly had more of a fiery edge to it. The average points tally in Merseyside Derbies since Rafa Benitez became boss of Liverpool is an incredible 73 from eight games, with the referee awarding seven red cards during those games, two of which came in this corresponding fixture last season. In-play punters take note, each game that has seen a red card between these two in the Rafa era has always ended with a points total of at least 75.
Tottenham have had a very shaky start to the season yet again and with Portsmouth suffering a humiliating 6-0 defeat at Man City last weekend, this is the perfect game for spread bettors to back their own judgment. Sellers of Pompey supremacy at 0.3 will be hoping that Harry Redknapp’s side put in an equally dismal defensive display as against City and will be delighted to hear that Spurs have won six and drawn one of the last seven meetings between the sides. Total goals buyers will be concerned that, since Pompey’s 7-4 home win against Reading last season, only two games in the past 17 matches at Fratton Park have seen more than 2 goals. Sellers will take even greater confidence from nine of Spurs’ 15 away games under Juande Ramos ending with 2 or less goals.
Spurs local rivals Arsenal on the other hand have started the season in imperious fashion and there were cries of despair on the Sporting Index trading floor, as their kids rattled in six goals midweek against Sheffield United. Saturday’s visitors are newly-promoted Hull City and sellers of goals on the spreads could again be in for a torrid evening. In the past decade, the Gunners have run rings around promoted sides and average just under an astonishing four goals per game (102 goals in 26 games = 3.92 goals per game). However, sellers of Arsenal supremacy will take heart from their opening game 1-0 victory against promoted West Brom this season. Buyers of total goals will be delighted to hear that 19 out of 26 of these matches against promoted sides have seen at least three goals and 13 games have seen four or more. In all bar one of the 13 games with four goals, there was also a fifth goal scored.
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Football Spreads 12 Sep 08
Normal service resumes this weekend when the Premier League rockets back to life following a week of drab international fixtures. On Saturday evening two of the richest clubs in the world meet at Eastlands when Phil Scolari takes his Chelsea side up to face Arab-owned Man City. Spread punters will undoubtedly be interested in the bookings market, as tensions are likely to be high due to the Robinho-factor. However, let’s kick off precedings with another likely tempestuous affair, when Liverpool host Man United in the lunchtime kick-off.
Buyers of United supremacy at 0.4 will take great heart from their team winning seven of the last eight meetings between the two sides. However, spread bettors should be aware that although Sir Alex Ferguson’s side haven’t lost in the league at Anfield since 2001, the last time they won by more than a one-goal margin was in 1997. Those punters buying total goals at 2.4 will be hoping for a repeat of last year’s tie at Old Trafford when United easily dispatched their bitter rivals 3-0. However, of concern to those buyers will be the fact that all of the past five meetings between these two at Anfield have either had one or no goals.
The bookies normally love low-scoring matches where not a great deal happens. However, sellers have been taking advantage of this pattern in recent games between the two sides. 75% of Liverpool’s last 11 Big Four matches have ended up with two goals or less, whilst nine of United’s last 14 against the top teams have been under this figure. The more risky members of the spread betting fraternity will often look for more volatile markets like buying and selling the time of a side’s first goal. Sellers of the time of the first Liverpool goal at around 62 minutes may well fancy their chances of Rafa Benitez’s side breaking the deadlock before the break. However, incredibly, Liverpool have failed to score against the Red Devils in all of the last seven Premier League games, which would appear to be like buying money for those Liverpool first goal buyers.
Big Phil will unsurprisingly still be fuming with his fellow countryman Robinho for rejecting Chelsea and moving to Man City at the last minute, and the Sporting Index traders have come up with some interesting specials on the debutante’s performance. Their spread for his playing minutes is 83-85, whilst there will undoubtedly be some interest in their prediction that his first shot on target will be between the 55th and 58th minutes. Chelsea have an outstanding record against the Sky Blues, having won all of the last six ties against them. Buyers of their supremacy on the spreads will be licking their lips following the 6-0 demolition at Stamford Bridge last October. They will also take heart from Chelsea winning 82% of their last 28 away games against teams who had finished outside the top six the season before. However, three of their last four away victories at City have come by only a 1-0 score-line.
Those punters interested in buying the time of the first Liverpool goal against United may end up going for the double with City. They have exactly the same record against Chelsea, having not scored a goal in the last seven encounters. Total goals buyers at 2.5 will also be concerned to hear that 13 of the last 16 games which the Sky Blues have played against Big Four opposition at home have finished with two or less goals. The West London outfit also appear to be a sellers dream, with 17 of their last 19 away games producing less than 2.5 goals.
Although some spread punters will expect a fiery encounter with the arrival of Robinho, it’s worth bearing in mind that in the last six games between these two in Manchester, only one game has had a final bookings make-up of more than 30. Sellers at around 46 will therefore be hoping for a repeat of any of the other five games, including last year when one solitary yellow card was handed out.
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Football Spreads 3 Sep 08
England begin their World Cup qualifying campaign against Andorra in Barcelona on Saturday night in what the traders at Sporting Index expect to be a relative ‘stroll in the park’. It’s not every day of the week you see an away side as the 3.5-3.7 goal favourites, but that’s the position Capello’s England side find themselves in. On paper, they should win easily having recorded decisive 5-0 and 3-0 victories over Andorra the last time they met back in 2006/2007. However, buyers will be conscious that England have a history of struggling against weaker opposition and particularly so in the first 45 minutes. The Three Lions have played 14 competitive games this decade away to teams ranked outside the top 50, with none of the games producing more than one first-half goal.
Sellers of total goals in the game at 3.8 will take heart from the fact that all of Andorra’s last six games have featured 3 or fewer goals. In fact, since they lost 7-0 in Croatia last October, only one of their thirteen fixtures since has had more than 4.5 goals. Admittedly, they’ve played some equally bad sides in that time, but they have also managed to contain Russia, Israel and England along the way. Looking more generally at recent mismatches (a team ranked in the top 25 away to one outside the top 100) in UEFA qualifying competitions, the big sides have won 53 of the 59 games. The interesting trend for goal sellers is that a sizable majority (36 of those 59) have also featured under 3.5 goals. Those tempted to sell the time of the first Andorra match goal at 81 minutes should be aware that the hosts have only managed to hit the net in just over a quarter of the 53 competitive matches they have played.
Scotland are the 0.1-0.3 goal favourites away at Macedonia earlier in the afternoon in a game with a goal expectation of only 2.1-2.3. The Scots have been a pretty efficient team away to all but the best sides in recent times, losing only four of the 25 competitive games away to countries ranked outside the top 20 over the last 15 years. Since 2000 they have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 3, but buyers should be wary that they have had some problems with teams like Macedonia - George Burley’s men managing just three wins, two draws and two defeats against those outside the top 50 but inside the top 100. Sellers of total goals at 2.1 will be hoping that Scotland’s lack of goals will continue to be their main problem. They have only scored 12 in ten games away to teams ranked outside the top 50 in that time – with all but two of those matches finishing with two goals or fewer.
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Football Spreads 29 Aug 08
The Premier League season is well underway and Chelsea still top the season points tally with a spread of 84-85.5. Man United sit just below at 81.5-83, but it is worth remembering that they only picked up two points in their first three games last season, before going on to lift the title with 87 points.
Chelsea face Tottenham at Stamford Bridge on Sunday and Luiz Felipe Scolari will be delighted that his side has won two games in a row. Buyers of their supremacy on the spreads will be encouraged that Spurs haven’t won at the Bridge since 1990, whilst Chelsea supremacy sellers will also be concerned that Spurs have lost nine of their last 12 away games against the Big Four. However, spread betting provides the perfect option for in-running punting and those punters should take note that the North Londoners have gone into the break level in 11 of their past 16 away games against the Big Four. Sellers of the time of the first Blues’ goal will be pleased to hear that Chelsea have scored the first goal in 14 of their last 20 games at Stamford Bridge, whilst buyers of the time of the first Spurs goal will be delighted that they have conceded the first goal in 11 of their last 12 against the Big Four.
The last fixture these two played was one of those games which had the Sporting Index traders screaming in disgust. The game ebbed and flowed until Robbie Keane’s 88th minute equaliser brought the curtain down on an extraordinary 4-4 draw. Six of the last eight contests between these two have seen more than three goals scored, so the total goals buyers will undoubtedly be out in force once again. However, sellers at 2.6 will take heart from three of the last four Premier League games between these two at the Bridge seeing two or fewer goals.
The other big tie on Sunday sees Liverpool travel down the M6 to Villa Park. Buyers of Villa supremacy will be concerned that they haven’t beaten the Reds for 15 games (losing nine and drawing five since). They also haven’t managed to win against them at Villa Park since 1998, whilst they lost to three of the Big Four at home last season. Both of these sides have made a habit of scoring late goals so far this season which will be of interest to those buying the time of the last match goal. All six Villa have scored this season have come in the second half, whilst four of the five they have conceded have all come after the interval. The Reds on the other hand have scored three times in the league this season – in the 83rd, 86th and 90th minutes. However, those spread bettors interested in selling the time of the first Liverpool goal will take more encouragement from 75% of the side’s last 24 away wins, coming with them winning both at half-time and full-time.
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Football Spreads 22 Aug 08
The Premier League is up and running again and the Sporting Index punters who opened an account to receive £100 in cash if Chelsea top the league at the end of August will have been delighted with Scolari’s first match in charge. The Blues were awesome and dispatched Pompey with sumptuous ease; especially when you consider the struggle Man United had at Wembley the previous week. United were poor against Newcastle and the bookmakers have reacted accordingly, making Chelsea the new title favourites. The spread traders are no different and Chelsea’s season points are now available to buy at 84, whilst the Red Devils’ spread is 81-82.5.
Looking ahead to the weekend action and Chelsea make the trip up to Lancashire to take on Wigan on Sunday. Buyers of Chelsea supremacy at 1.4 will be delighted to hear that in the past three seasons, the Latics have the worst record in the Premier League at home against the Big Four. They have picked up one solitary point from a possible 36, whilst buyers will also take heart from the Blues’ recent away form. They’ve won 12 and drawn two of their last 15 games on the road. Sellers, on the other hand, will be encouraged by Wigan’s last-minute equaliser at Stamford Bridge in April, which eventually put paid to Chelsea’s title hopes. Those spread punters who had bought the time of the first Latics goal would also have been celebrating and will be intrigued to learn that in the last two campaigns, Chelsea have won 76% (19 of 25) of their away games by a one-nil or two-nil scoreline.
The spread betting public will be latching onto Scolari’s men, especially after the 4-0 demolition of Pompey, and buyers of total goals will be pleased to hear that two of the last four league contests between these two at the JJB have seen exactly five goals scored. However, sellers also have a lot to shout about, as 16 of the past 20 games at the JJB have seen two goals or less. The West Londoners are much less prolific on the road and incredibly 82% of their last 28 away fixtures have seen two goals or fewer, including 16 of the last 18.
Harry Redknapp was very disappointed with his team’s performance against Chelsea on Sunday and they have another tough assignment at home against United on Monday night. The Bookies, unsurprisingly have United as favourites (supremacy spread 0.4-0.6), but Pompey actually have a strong record against the Champions in recent times, winning two and drawing two of the last five contests. Sellers of United supremacy will be further boosted by Pompey’s Premier League record at home against the Red Devils. In five games they have won three and lost just once. However, United supporters, who fancy their side to get off to a flyer by selling the time of their first goal, will be encouraged that they have the second strongest record in the league for scoring first away (nine of their last 12). This in enhanced further by Pompey falling behind in games the second most regularly in the league (14 of their last 23).
Sellers of goals on the spreads will be pleased to hear that 13 of Pompey’s last 15 home games have had two goals or less. Buyers will be further alarmed that six of the south coast outfit’s last eight games at Fratton Park against the Big Four have seen fewer than three goals.
The live Sky game on Saturday evening sees Arsenal make the short trip to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham. Sporting Index have Arsenal supremacy at 1.0-1.2 and Gunners buyers will be pleased to hear that their side have won eight of the past nine contests between the two sides. They will also take massive encouragement from the Cottagers recent poor home form, having lost seven of their last 11, including all four against the top four sides last season. Arsene Wenger’s side have the second best recent away record as well, having won 60% of their last 10 games away from the Emirates. Spread punters are always interested in buying total goals in Arsenal games and eight of their last 10 games away from home have seen two or more goals. Buyers will take further encouragement from more than half of the league games at Craven Cottage last season ending with three goals or more.
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Football Spreads 15 Aug 08
It’s been a long wait, but the Premier League finally kicks off this weekend. There are a number of good games on Saturday, but the two ties which will make spread betting punters’ mouths water are Man United v Newcastle and Chelsea v Portsmouth on Sunday. Sellers of United supremacy at 1.4 and sellers of total goals at around 2.4 will be hoping for a repeat of last year’s opening goalless draw at home against Reading. However, buyers will take great heart from the fact that that game was the first time in nine years since United had failed to win their opening home fixture. Leicester were the last team to hold them in the first game at home in 1998. United buyers will be further buoyed by the Reading game being only the second time in 16 Premier League campaigns that the defending Champions didn’t earn maximum points from the opening fixture.
Those spread punters looking to get with Newcastle on the supremacy market will be very concerned that they have lost 12 of the past 14 league games against United - last tasting victory way back in 2001. They have also had a terrible run against Big Four sides in the past few years and sellers of United supremacy will be alarmed that the Geordies have picked up only one point against the Premier League’s elite in the past four seasons. United buyers, on the other hand, will be encouraged that their side enter the 2008/09 season having just registered their best ever home season in the Premier League (taking maximum points in 17 of their 19 games). The signs for other non-Big Four teams at Old Trafford this season don’t look good, as the Red Devils have only dropped points in four out of 31 games there in the last two campaigns.
Many punters will see this game as the ideal game to have a spread bet, purely on the basis of the two results last season – in which the Sporting Index traders took an absolute hammering. Total goals buyers were in dream land as the Reds hammered the Magpies 6-0 on home turf in January, before demolishing them 5-1 at St James’s just over a month later. There have been some epic encounters between these two over the years and it is astonishing that in just the past 18 league games between the two, three have had 6 goals, one has seen 7 goals and two have seen 8 (both in the 2002/2003 season). Goals buyers have further reason for celebration as opening day fixtures regularly see more goals than normal. In the past eight seasons, 56% of games have seen more than 2.5 goals, whilst in six of those past eight campaigns, the total average of the opening day fixtures produced more goals than the last day of the season – an average of 2.8 goals per game. Sellers of the time of the first Newcastle goal will be greatly concerned that the Magpies have only scored once in their last five trips to the Theatre of Dreams.
Looking at the other end of the table and after Derby’s disastrous performance last year, there will be plenty of spread betting sellers looking to get their teeth into Hull, Stoke and West Brom’s season points tally. The bookies look like they expect all three newly promoted sides to go back down at the first time of asking (Hull’s spread: 27-28.5. Stoke’s 27.5-29 and the Baggies 35-36.5). However, this has only ever happened once in the Premier League era (in 1997/98 with Bolton, Barnsley and Crystal Palace), which may make buyers sit up and take notice. Buyers of West Brom on the spreads will be pleased, if not unsurprised, to hear that Champions have the best record when it comes to Premier League survival; with just six of the past 16 going down. Just over half of the last 15 runners-up have stayed up the following season, which will give hope to Stoke buyers, whilst 63% of the play off winners have gone back down which may be ominous to those buying Hull’s season points.
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Football Spreads 7 Aug 08
The Championship kicks off this weekend and the tie of the round is undoubtedly Birmingham City v Sheffield United on Saturday lunchtime. Both of these sides are anticipated to be competing at the top end of the table and the Blues are favourites for the title with a season points spread of 75.5-77.5. The Blades are only marginally lower, with 71-73 and spread punters will be looking for fireworks in this opening game. Those who have a strong view on the supremacy market will be interested to learn that none of the last 10 meetings between the sides have been drawn. City hold the advantage with seven of those wins, but they have lost two of their past seven games at St Andrews against the Blades.
Buyers of total goals at around 2.6 will be pleased to hear that the last four games between these two have averaged exactly 4 goals per game. However, they should tread carefully as the last eight meetings at St Andrews between the two have seen 2 or fewer goals. Both of these sides sometimes have their disciplinary problems, but the beauty of sports spread betting means that punters can profit from the behaviour or misbehaviour of players. Two of the last three games between these two at Bramhall Lane have had low bookings make-ups of 20 and 30 (where you are awarded 10 points per yellow card and 25 points per red). However, the last two contests at St Andrews have seen a red card apiece which will be of interest to those buying the first bookings spread of the new season.
The FA Community Shield takes place at Wembley on Sunday and amazingly Man United v Portsmouth will be the first time a team from outside the current Big Four has taken part since Newcastle in 1996. Spread bettors who sell total goals will be concerned that three of the past four ‘shields’ have had 3 goals, whilst last year’s contest between United and Chelsea had 2. There may be some punters who like to bet on extra-time or penalty markets and since 1993, four games have been settled on penalties – all of them won by Man United. There will always be those looking to buy or sell player goal minutes and sellers will take great encouragement from no player scoring more than one goal in the past 15 Community or Charity Shields. In fact, the last player to register more than one goal was a certain Eric Cantona for Leeds in 1992, who netted a hat-trick against Liverpool in a 4-3 thriller.
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Football Spreads 1 Aug 08
We looked at the Premiership and Championship in detail last week, but for some spread bettors the goings-on in League One can be just as important. Leeds United are clear favourites to win the title in Sporting Index's season points market, with a spread of 77.5-79.5. Some punters may be surprised to hear of such a large quote seeing as they finished last year with just 76. However, they would be forgetting the 15-point deduction the Yorkshire outfit had to contend with and buyers of them in the season points tally will be hoping for an equally strong campaign this time around. Leicester are next best with a spread of 73-75 and those who fancy either of these two to win the league would feel confident buying their points looking back at previous champions. In the last eight years, the average points total earned by the champion has been 92 – exactly the number Swansea City finished on last season. Southend in 2005/2006 won the title with the lowest number of points in 82 (their spread is 66.5-68.5 this year), whilst Wigan broke the iconic 100 mark in 2002/2003.
However, sellers of either Leeds or any of the other teams who finished in the top six last season will be delighted to hear that none of the last seven champions had finished in the top six the season before. In fact, the record of the last seven reads as follows: 7th, 12th, promoted lower division, 10th, 8th, 10th and promoted lower division again. Leicester’s season points buyers will be worried that a number of ‘big’ teams have failed to get back up at the first attempt. One of the most notable aspects about League One champions for spread betting punters to consider is that there have been some incredibly comfortable seasons for some champions since the Millennium. In that period, three teams have won by 10 points or more (including Swansea last season), whilst only two were by less than six points.
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Football Spreads 25 Jul 08
A fairly quiet period of sporting action now until the Olympics kicks off, closely followed by the start of the football season. We’ll look in more detail at the Olympics next week when the spreads are released, but I’m sure there will be plenty of you looking to get your teeth into some pre-season football spread markets. According to the bookies, it looks like this season will be another tight battle between Man United (season points spread: 82.5-84) and Chelsea (82-83.5) for the title, whilst Arsenal (75-76.5) and Liverpool (74-75.5) look destined to fight it out for third and fourth. Those who fancy any of the top four to win the league will be pleased to hear that three of the past five champions have won with a final points tally of 90 or bigger. However, buyers of United in the points index might be slightly concerned that their last four titles have been with a points tally of 87, 89, 83 and 80. Chelsea buyers will take heart from their team’s recent two winning seasons earning 91 and 95 points; whilst they have failed to register less than 80 points in the Abramovich era.
Both United and Chelsea have been consistent in their respective points tallies over the past five years, but Liverpool and Arsenal have been the opposite. The Gunners average points over the past five seasons has been an impressive 78.2, which will be music to the ears of buyers at 76.5. However, prior to last season’s third place, they had dropped to fourth both seasons beforehand and only registered 68 and 67 points. Liverpool’s average total on the other hand is only 68.8, which will please those selling at 74. It’s worth remembering though that they have earned 82 and 76 points in two of the past three seasons. Everton are the only club to split the ‘big four’ in the past five seasons, so spread bettors buying them at 57.5 will be hoping they can equal or eclipse their 2004/2005 total of 61 points. They actually did even better than that last season, ending the season on 65 points having finished fifth, which will be of major concern to those selling them at 56.
Hull City, whose points spread is set at 27-28.5, are the favourites for the wooden spoon, closely followed by Stoke City, who can be sold at 28. Interestingly, sellers of the team who finished bottom in the last three years would have done quite well on either of these quotes. Derby broke the record last season for the lowest ever Premier League tally with only 11 points, whilst Watford registered 28 in 2006/2007 and Sunderland just 15 in 2005/2006. The average points total for the last five teams who went down in the final relegation spot is 34.8, which will be of concern to West Brom buyers at 36.5. Sporting Index also have a Premier League relegation index (where you are awarded 60 points for finishing last, 40 for second bottom, 30 for third, 20 for fourth, 10 for fifth, 5 for sixth bottom and 0 for all others) and sellers of West Brom will be hoping they can repeat their feat of 2004/2005, when they just managed to stay up the season after being promoted.
The Championship looks as tough as always this year and Sporting Index are struggling to split the top teams in the market. Incredibly, there are only 10 points difference between the spreads of Birmingham in first place (74.5-76.5) and Charlton in ninth (64-66). The Baggies won last year with a relatively small points tally of 81, but buyers will be hoping that their selection imitates Reading’s achievement in 2005/2006 when they registered 106 points – a league record. This was particularly incredible when you consider the other two promoted sides (Sheffield United and Watford) ended the season on 90 and 81 points respectively – much higher than anyone in the pre-season points market this time round.
The buzz team in the league is undoubtedly QPR, with their multi-billion pound backing. They are predicted to finish third in the points index, but in the past eight years, only 5.1% of teams (4 out of 78) have overcome a negative goal difference from their previous Championship campaign to achieve promotion. In addition, sellers of them in the Championship outright index will be pleased to hear that in the last 12 seasons, over 50% (19/36) of the promoted teams from the Championship have come from the teams that were either relegated from the Premiership the season before, or those that missed out in the playoffs. When you include the teams that finished just outside the playoff spots (7th-9th) in the previous campaign, the promoted figure rises to almost 70%.
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Football Spreads 27 Jun 08
Euro 2008 has nearly reached its conclusion and on Sunday night the 13th European Football Champions will be crowned in Vienna. There have been some fantastic games at this year’s tournament and at the time of writing either Spain or Russia will be taking on Germany in the final. Sellers of total goals at 2 will be slightly worried after Germany’s thrilling 3-2 semi-final win against the Turks made it two five-goal games in a row for Joachim Low’s side. They will also be concerned that only one final (Euro 2004 between Greece and Portugal) has had one solitary goal and there has never been a goal-less final in the 12 tournaments. Interestingly for goals punters; prior to the last competition in Portugal, the previous five finals had seen exactly two goals in regular time (three were settled with 2-0 victories, whilst two had to go to extra-time after 1-1 draws).
Germany could be bought at 50 with Sporting Index pre-tournament in their 100 index (where they award 100 points to the winner, 75 to the runner-up, 50 to each losing semi-finalist, 25 points to all losing quarter-finalists and 0 for failing to qualify), so a number of punters are sitting in a healthy position going into Sunday’s final. The Germans have the strongest record in the tournament, having won three and finishing runner-up twice. Buyers of German supremacy in this game will have to wait for Thursday’s night’s result, but they will be interested to learn that in four meetings against the Russians, Germany have won three and drawn one. This is in addition to an 8-2 win ratio for West Germany over the USSR. However, the last time Spain faced the pre-tournament favourites they won 3-1 in 2003.
Finals can often be tight, nervous affairs and buyers of the time of the first match goal will take great heart from the last three European finals going in goal-less at the break. In fact, only three of the last 14 goals scored within 90 minutes in finals have been scored in the first half. Two of the last three finals have gone to extra-time and were won before penalties, which will be of interest to extra-time punters – especially as the extra 30 minutes was needed in three of the four quarter finals this year.
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Football Spreads 20 Jun 08
Euro 2008 started a little lackadaisically, but it has certainly picked up in the past week. In-running punters and, in particularly buyers of the time of the last match goal, will be licking their lips at the prospect of Friday night’s contest between Croatia and Turkey. The Turks have scored in injury time in their last two games and they scored an incredible three goals in the last 15 minutes to put them through against the Czechs.
Croatia have improved markedly in recent years and this is backed up by their 2-1 win over Germany in this year’s group phase being their third in succession against a top-10 team under Slaven Bilic. Buyers of Croatia supremacy at 0.6 will be encouraged that against teams outside the world’s top 10, they have won 10, drawn 5 and only lost once since the start of qualifying for the 2006 World Cup. Buyers will also be pleased to hear that they have never been beaten by the Turks, although they have only played three times and two have been draws. The Croats have won four of their last five, but they have only scored more than one goal in the 2-1 win over Germany.
Buyers of total goals at 2.3 will be concerned that only one of the last six games involving Croatia has seen more than 2 goals. However, they will be much happier when they hear that the last five games involving Turkey average 3.4 goals and the last time these two sides met in 2003, it ended 2-2. Turkey’s defence isn’t especially strong which will also please those buyers. In competitive matches away from home since the start of the 2002 World Cup qualifers, they have only kept a clean sheet in 2 out of 11 against teams ranked in the top 20. At major tournaments since 2000, they have kept a clean sheet in only 5 of 14 (just one was against a team ranked in the top 20).
World Champions Italy breathed a huge sigh of relief on Tuesday night when they managed to beat their old adversaries France, and Holland came through for them against Romania. Sporting Index have the Spanish as marginal 0-0.2 favourites and buyers will be hoping they can continue their run of four unbeaten games against the Italians. The last time they were beaten by the Azzurri was back in the quarter finals of USA ’94, but there have been four draws in the nine contests, which will be of interest to extra time and penalties punters. Total goals buyers will be concerned that prior to the tournament, four of Spain’s previous five games had only seen one goal. However, eight goals were scored in their opening two matches in the competition. Spain have also scored in 17 of their last 18 games.
Similarly to the Croatia v Turkey game, there will be plenty of interest in the time of the last goal, as Spain have scored in the 90th minute in both of their first two group games, whilst Van Bronkhorst scored in the 80th minute in the game between Holland and Italy. Two of the last three meetings between these two have had no bookings, even though they were both friendlies. Buyers of bookings at around 46 will be hoping that the trend of the Italian games at this tournament will be followed in this one. In their three group games the average bookings total has made up 60. However, those expecting a bloodbath should tread with caution. Spain’s first two games have only seen two bookings.
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Football Spreads 13 Jun 08
France take on group leaders Holland in Berne on Friday night, knowing that a defeat would leave them with a mountain to climb in terms of qualification. They can currently be bought at 25, along with group rivals Italy, in the Sporting Index outright market (where you are awarded 100 for winning, 75 for runner up, 50 for losing a semi-final, 25 losing a quarter-final and 0 for worse) and are equal seventh favourites for the title. Sellers at 22 should be aware though that the last time Les Bleus started a major tournament with a draw (World Cup 2006) they went on to contest the final. Holland started in imperious fashion against Italy on Monday night and can now be bought at 48 in the outright index. They last won a major tournament in 1988, but they have made it to the semi-finals in three of the last four European Championships since then.
These two countries have met each other 21 times in their history and Holland have the slight edge with nine wins to France’s eight. Sporting Index can’t split the two sides, but buyers of Dutch supremacy at 0 will take heart from the Orange Army’s recent record – winning five and drawing one of their last six games. French buyers will be concerned that they have drawn two and lost one of their past six games and have only managed to score four goals in those games. However, since 1990 France have only lost one of 22 competitive matches against top-10 ranked teams. Ironically, that one defeat came against Holland in Euro 2000, but it was after both teams had already qualified for the knockout phase.
Buyers of total goals at 2.2 will be concerned that eight of the last 11 contests between these two have seen 2 goals or fewer, whilst three of the four competitive meetings (World Cup and Euros) have also only had 2 goals or less. Les Bleus have only scored four goals in their past six games and all of those games have had 2 goals or less. However, buyers will be hoping the Dutch can continue their goalscoring form, as they average 2.66 goals per game in their last six (16 from past 6 games).
Italy and Romania have met each other 14 times, with the Italians winning 10 of them. Buyers of the time of the first Romania goal will be delighted to hear that they have failed to score the last four times they have played Italy and have only managed to hit the net twice in their last seven games against the Azzurri. However, prior to their 0-0 draw against France on Tuesday, they had scored 13 goals in their previous four games. Italy were also in good form before the tournament, winning three of their four games 3-1. Total goals buyers at 2.2 will be hoping for more of the same, but should be aware that only one of the last seven games between the two countries has seen more than 2 goals.
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Football Spreads 30 May 08
England play Trinidad for only the second time in their history on Sunday and the second time in the space of two years. Buyers of English supremacy at 1.8 goals will be hoping for at least a repeat of the 2-0 win at the World Cup in Germany. Sellers at 1.6 goals will be pleased to hear that Trinidad have won three and drawn one of the last four home games, but may be slightly worried that these have come against the likes of El Salvador, Guatemala and St Vincent & Grenadines. England meanwhile haven’t been too strong on their travels of late and have lost two of their last three on the road.
Sellers of the time of the first England goal at 36 minutes will be concerned that it took 83 minutes to break the deadlock against the Trinidadians at the World Cup.
The other significant friendly for British sports fans this weekend is Wales’ trip to Holland. The Welsh have played the Dutch five times in their history and have lost all five. In fact, buyers of Dutch supremacy at 1.4 goals will be delighted to hear that Holland have scored an astonishing 14 goals the last three times they’ve met Wales. The last game was a 7-1 drubbing in Eindhoven in 1996, which saw goals from Denis Bergkamp and both of the de Boer brothers. This is in addition to the Dutch scoring 10 goals in their past three games. Beware anyone selling total goals @ 2.5 goals.
Having said that Wales are unbeaten in six and have won their last three games against Norway, Luxembourg and Iceland, scoring six and conceding none.
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Football Spreads 23 May 08
What has been described by many as the richest match in football takes place at Wembley on Saturday. It is certainly a tale of two City’s, as Bristol and Hull try to book their place amongst the Premier League elite. Hull are 0.3-0.5 favourites with Sporting Index, but buyers will be concerned that they have failed to beat Bristol in the last nine contests between the clubs. In fact, sellers at 0.3 will be overjoyed to hear that Bristol have won seven of the last nine meetings.
Championship play-off finals can often be tight, low scoring affairs and sellers of total goals at 2.3 will be pleased to hear that three of the last four finals have only seen one goal scored in each game. Four of the last seven finals have had one goal or fewer, but the other three games have all ended up 3-0. Having said that, the last 10 games between Bristol and Hull have averaged 3.1 goals per game.
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Football Spreads 16 May 08
The Premier League is over for another year, but before the historic all-English Champions League Final and Euro 2008 Championships; we have the traditional curtain closer to the English season on Saturday. Punters would have made hundreds, if not thousands, if they had correctly predicted that Portsmouth and Cardiff would have been lining up at Wembley for the FA Cup Final on Saturday 17th May. Sporting Index have Pompey as the 0.7-0.9 favourites and buyers at 0.9 will be hoping for a repeat of the last time the sides met when the South Coast outfit won 2-0 at Ninian Park in the fourth round of the League Cup back in 2004/2005. However, the last five times the sides have played have all been cup ties and Pompey and the Bluebirds have both won two apiece.
Buyers of Pompey supremacy will be hoping for an improvement in form, as Harry Redknapp’s side have now lost four in a row. Cardiff on the other hand ended the season in confident mood beating their semi-final opponents Barnsley 3-0 on the last day of the season. Pompey buyers will be pleased to hear that since the Premier League began, there have been 63 neutral matches in the two major domestic competitions. The teams lower in the league, or in a lower league, won four of the first five such games, but only 11 of 58 since, with the superior team winning 34 and only losing 9 in that time. This is even more prevalent in the FA Cup specifically, as the team in the superior league position has won 38 of 47 neutral ties.
Portsmouth have found it very difficult to hit the net in recent weeks and have only managed to score twice in the past six games, which will give sellers of total goals at 2.4 encouragement. In fact, their goal ratio in the FA Cup has also been low and the six goals they’ve scored on route to the final is the lowest since the Premier League started (Arsenal scored seven in 1998). In the Premier League era just over 40% (28/69) of neutral cup ties have produced three or more goals and over a third (25/69) have had one or none in 90 minutes. It is even more applicable in the FA Cup with just 37% (19/52) of neutral matches seeing more than two goals and 40% (21/52) ending with no more than one. Buyers of total goals at 2.6 will be boosted by Cardiff’s final five league games though, as they averaged just over 4 goals per game.
Buyers of goals won’t be happy that finals are even lower scoring than regular FA Cup ties. Only four of the last 16 FA Cup finals (including one replay) have seen three goals or more – and only five of 22 over the last 20 years. The presence of a lower league team does not appear to make much difference either. Since 1992/1993, the majority (10/17) of matches at neutral venues involving teams from outside the top flight have resulted in two goals or fewer – nearly half the matches (8/17) ending with one goal or none at all.
The Champions League Final is only five days away and it is difficult to way up the key betting options at this stage, but there are some useful stats to focus on for the first ever all-English Champions League Final. Whatever happens between Man United and Chelsea, England will become the equal most successful nation in European Cup / Champions League history with 11 wins, alongside Italy and Spain. There will be plenty of punters interested in the total goals market in this game and buyers of goals at 2.5 will be concerned that only one of the last six meetings between these two has seen more than 2 goals (that was only last month at Stamford Bridge). However, they will be much more pleased when they hear that five of the last six and seven of the last nine Champions League Finals have contained at least three goals.
There have only ever been two ‘one country’ finals in the history of the European Cup and they have both been in the last eight years. AC Milan v Juventus was settled on penalties after a goal-less draw, whilst Madrid beat Valencia 3-0 in 2000. Sellers of United supremacy at 0.1 will be hoping Chelsea can continue their recent positive run against the Red Devils. In the past 12 games between the clubs they have won six, compared with only two victories for United. However, the sides have never met in Europe before.
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Football Spreads 9 May 08
Sunday sees the end of the Premier League season and Man United and Chelsea will be fighting it out for the title. Chelsea have the easier looking game at home to Bolton, whilst United will be hoping their former player Steve Bruce does them a favour when they travel to Wigan. Buyers of United supremacy at 1.4 will be delighted to hear that the Reds have won all six times they’ve played Wigan and have won by a margin bigger than 1 goal in five of the six. In the six games they’ve played, United average exactly 3 goals per game, whilst the Latics have only scored 3 goals. In-running punters will be interested to learn though that on the two previous games at the JJB between these sides, United had to come from behind to win.
Sellers of United supremacy at 1.2 will also be concerned that Steve Bruce’s record against Sir Alex Ferguson when manager of Birmingham reads – played 10; drawn two; lost eight. However, they will be happier when they look at Wigan’s recent form. They are unbeaten in five and have drawn against Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool since the start of the New Year. Player goal minutes punters have followed Cristiano Ronaldo religiously all season and even though he scored twice last weekend against West Ham, sellers at 32 will have been relieved that his minutes only made up 27. However, buyers will be licking their lips at his record against Wigan. In the four games he has started against the Latics, he has scored in each game and his goal minutes total has increased on each occasion (59, 74, 98 and 135 in November’s game).
Avram Grant will be hoping that his side can do the business against practically safe Bolton Wanderers, whilst Wigan manage to upset the Old Trafford applecart. Buyers of Chelsea supremacy at 1.8 should really be more confident if this game was taking place at the Reebok. The Blues have won their last five trips to Lancashire, but have only beaten Bolton once in the past four meetings between the two at Stamford Bridge, including a 2-1 defeat back in 2003. Chelsea buyers though will point to two of the last three wins over the Trotters at home ending up 5-1.
When you compare the total goals market in games between these two at the Reebok and at the Bridge, then goal buyers definitely have more to shout about in this one. The last five games in the North have seen 2 or fewer goals, whilst all of the past four meetings at Stamford Bridge have had 3 or more. In-running punters will again be interested to learn that Bolton have taken the lead in their last two visits to the Bridge.
For those interested in the other games in the Premier League then there are some intriguing stats in the last round of games, especially for total goals punters. In the last 15 years of the Premier League, the last round of games averages nearly three goals per match (2.98) when the league average for a game is 2.60. May, unsurprisingly when considering this, also leads the way in the monthly breakdown, averaging 2.81 goals per game (no other month averages above 2.68).
The trend comes even further to the fore when the final game of the season has two teams with nothing to play for (not challenging for the title, a European place, or trying to avoid relegation). This weekend, Sunderland v Arsenal, Tottenham v Liverpool and Middlesbrough v Man City are all such games and buyers of total goals at around 2.6 will be delighted to hear that games between teams with nothing to play for on the last day of the season average 3.14 goals per game - compared with 2.83 for those games involving teams that need a result. In fact, 63% of last day ‘no stake’ matches have featured at least 3 goals, as opposed to 52% for matches with something at stake.
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Football Spreads 2 May 08
Chelsea’s victory over United last Saturday flung open the title door once again and any slip up by either side in the remaining two fixtures will hand the title to their rivals. United have another early kick off to contend with on Saturday, when West Ham travel up to Old Trafford, whilst Chelsea must make the long trip up to St James’s Park on Monday evening. Buyers of United supremacy at 0.9 will be concerned that the Red Devils have lost their last three league games against the Hammers, all by a one-goal margin. They’ve also lost three of the last six contests between the sides at Old Trafford, each time by one goal to nil.
However, even though four of the last six meetings between these two sides have seen one goal or fewer, sellers of total goals at 2.3 should tread with caution. In the past decade, United have found their scoring boots against the Hammers at home and in the last nine games they have scored 3 twice and 4, 6 and 7 once. West Ham fans will be hoping for a repeat of last season’s final match when Carlos Tevez grabbed the only goal of the game. Sellers of United supremacy will also take encouragement from the Red Devils’ recent Premier League record immediately after a Champions League game. They have lost two and only won one of the last four league games played directly after a European tie.
Many punters will remember the fierce battles involving these two clubs which seemed to emanate from the transfer of Paul Ince in 1989. It may therefore surprise a few people that the last red card shown in a game between these two was back in 1995 – 23 contests ago. As always, much will depend on the referee, but sellers of bookings at 36 will be delighted to hear that the average make-up of the last four games between these two at Old Trafford is 15. At Upton Park, they tend to be slightly feistier, as the average in the last four there is 37.5
Three months ago, Avram Grant would have relished a trip to Newcastle, but the Magpies are rejuvenated of late and are now unbeaten in seven league games. Buyers of Chelsea supremacy at 0.3 will be concerned that Newcastle have won their last three home games, all by at least a 2-goal margin. They will be even more concerned when they learn that in the last five Premier League meetings between these two at St James’s, the Magpies have won three and drawn two.
The result of United’s game on Saturday will obviously have an impact on the way Chelsea approach this one, but even though there were three goals at Stamford Bridge when the sides met in December, buyers of total goals at 2.4 have every reason to be concerned in this game. Five of the last six games between the two have had 1 goal or fewer, whilst all of the last six games at St James’s have had 2 or less goals.
Arsenal will be praying that both the other teams slip up and that they can take advantage at home against Everton on Sunday. Buyers of Arsenal supremacy at 0.9 will be pleased to hear that in the last 20 years, Arsenal have won 85% of their home games against the Toffees and have only lost on one occasion since the inception of the Premier League. Sellers of Arsenal supremacy will be concerned that David Moyes has never had an away victory at a top six side and has lost 20 of the 31 they’ve played at teams in the top six.
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Football Spread Betting Markets
Spread betting on football allows the punter to bet on more than just the event eg spread betting allows punters to bet on anything from the number of corners in the second half to the number of cards in a blood-and-thunder local derby.
Below are explanations for some of the most popular football Spread Bets offered by Sporting Index...
Supremacy
This is a market predicting one team's dominance over their opposition. The bookmakers will predict how many more goals a given team will score ‘more’ than their opponents.
Example:
The bookie might make Arsenal favourites to beat Chelsea by 0.1 - 0.3 goals. Therefore, if you think Arsenal will win you could bet high at 0.3 for the stake of your choice, in this case, £50 per goal.
If Arsenal were to win the game 4-1, their winning margin (supremacy) would be 3 goals.
Therefore if you bought at 0.3 you would have made 2.7 times your stake.
(3 goals - 0.3 goal) x your stake per goal = 2.7 goals x £50 per goal = £135
But if Chelsea had won 1-0, the same bet would have lost you 1.3 times your stake.
(-1 goal - 0.3 goal) x your stake per goal = 1.3 goals x £50 per goal = - £65
Total Goals
This market is based on the total number of goals scored in a given match by both teams. It can be a good market to bet on if you think there will be a lot of goals or if you think there won’t be many goals.
Goal Scorers' Shirt Numbers
A spread bet in this market would be based on the total aggregate number of shirt numbers for all the goal scorers in a match. If Arsenal were to draw 1-1 with Chelsea with the players wearing shirt numbers 14 and 10 scoring the goals, the shirt numbers would result in 24 points. It doesn’t matter which team scores.
Total Bookings
How many cards will the referee show during a match? Standard bookmakers scoring system allocates:
10 points for a yellow card (maximum one per player
25 points for a red card
If a player receives a yellow card and then a second yellow card ie a red card then he is awarded 10 + 25 = 35 points.
Total Corners
This market is based on the total number of corners taken by both sides in a game.
Time of 1st Goal
How many minutes will elapse before a team scores? In this football betting market the bookie predicts the time of the first goal. The maximum result is 90 minutes (extra time does not count).
Total Goal Minutes
This is a very volatile market and care should be taken when placing bets on total goal minutes. You must use your judgment to estimate the total aggregate time of all goals scored in the game. Goals scored in the 44th and 82nd minute would add up to 126 total goal minutes. No goals would give a result of 0 goal minutes whilst goals in the 70th, 82nd and 89th minute would mean 241 total goal minutes
Individual Player Goal Minutes
This football market refers to the total minutes of all the goals scored by an individual player in a match. So, if a player scored two goals in a match, one in the 34th minute and the other in the 68th minute, his total goal minutes would be 102 minutes. If he doesn’t score his total minutes = 0.
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Trading Talk
This weeks round up of the key sporting events
Editor’s note: Although this article is now technically out of date the theory is still worth a read for those new to football spread betting.
With the ‘big four’ all playing against each other in the Premiership this week we’re focusing on football Spread Betting, what to look out for and what the opportunities are.
Liverpool travel to Old Trafford this weekend and sellers of Man United' supremacy at 0.4 with Sporting Index will be encouraged by the Reds' recent run of seven straight victories since their defeat to Barnsley. This will be further boosted by United losing two of their last five games at Old Trafford. However, buyers of United' supremacy will point to the Red Devil's recent dominance in these contests, they have won six of the last seven Premiership encounters between the two sides and Liverpool haven't managed to score against them in the last six league meetings.
Although both of these clubs are attack-minded and are two of the highest scoring teams in the league, buyers of total goals at 2.4 will be alarmed to hear that seven of the last 10 games between the two sides have had one or no goals. There have been two goals once and three match goals twice in that period. Interestingly, five of the last nine goals scored in games between these two teams have been scored by defenders. That will be music to the ears of punters who like to buy Defenders Player Goal Minutes.
Sporting Index's current Premier League points index forecasts that Man United will end the season on 86 or 87 points. They would have to register 17 points from their final eight games, which include matches against Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal. Liverpool are predicted to finish on 73 points, 14 more than their current figure of 59 and buyers of Liverpool will be hoping they can break their United hoo-doo, as well as produce their ‘now customary strong Premier League finish’.
The other key game is Chelsea v Arsenal at Stamford Bridge. Arsenal sit just two points above their London rivals in the League table and will slip down to third place if they leave West London empty handed. It looks like being a fight right down to the wire to finish second to United according to the Sporting Index Premier League points market. Both sides are forecast to get 82 points. Buyers of Chelsea supremacy will be encouraged by the Blues winning four of the last seven contests between the sides. However, they have only taken two points from the last three league games against the Gunners. Buyers of total goals will be concerned that the last six league games between the two have all had two or fewer goals.
One of the key facets of games between these London rivals in recent years has been their aggressive, fiery nature. Buyers of bookings will be licking their lips given that two of the last three games had final bookings make-ups of 90 and 145. However, Premier League games between the two have followed a similar pattern in the past three years and there has only been one high make up each season. Alan Wiley issued nine yellow cards at the Emirates in December and sellers will be praying for the pattern to continue.
'Football Spread Betting', guide by D. Jones, last update: 19-Feb-09
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