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FX Day Trading - 13 September 2011
ECB underwrites Southern Europe
But Italy's borrowing costs still rise
UK inflation data today
A Tokyo firm is marketing MXP Shaper Pants with a claim that they burn hundreds of calories a week. Because they are non-stretch, the wearer has to work harder when walking or climbing stairs, thus using more energy and losing weight. After a month of wearing the ¥3000 shreddies and exercising for an hour and a half every day, a 60kg man will have burnt an extra 900 calories and will find himself with plenty of space on even the most crowded bus.
There is an element of that to the euro at the moment. Financial spread betting investors would rather keep their distance.
The single currency did not do badly on Monday but that was only because it had been going down for a fortnight and there are no more Germans left to resign from the European Central Bank executive board. There were no duff economic data to trip the euro either. Well, that is not strictly true; Italian industrial production was down by -4.6% in the year to July but nobody noticed.
Investors were more interested in Prime Minister Berlusconi's efforts to sell his country to China. The discussions are secretive and apparently do not involve bonds, so are assumed to centre on other direct investments.
Italian bonds will be in play today though, with the government selling €7 billion of them. At yesterday's auction of 12-month treasury bills the Italian government had to pay an interest rate of 4.153%, considerably more than the 2.959% it had to pay to shift last month's offer.
The maturities on today's bonds will be of less than ten years to ensure they are eligible for subsequent purchase by the ECB, an unwelcome reminder that without the ECB acting as backstop Italy and Spain would struggle to refinance their debt.
A dearth of data yesterday contributed to relative calm in the FX spread betting market. Sterling is up by half a cent against the US dollar, down by that much against the euro and slightly firmer against the yen. The Swiss franc is obediently following the euro around, just beyond the yellow tape at SFr1.20 to €1.
Today will be slightly busier, if only for sterling.
The RICS house price balance came out at midnight and had deteriorated from -22 to -23. RICS members sold an average of just 14 homes each in the three months to August, hardly more than one a week and the lowest total for more than two years.
This morning it will be the UK balance of trade and inflation that grab investors' attention. Analysts expect the retail price index to be up by 5.1% in the year to August and the consumer price index to have risen by 4.5%. The balance of trade will inevitably be in deficit but perhaps not by as much in July as it was in June.
There are no pan-Euroland data and the only thing from North America is US import prices. With the ECB acting as dustbin-of-last-resort for Club Med government paper, there ought to be no problems with the Italian bond auction but all the risk is to the downside for the euro.
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'FX Spread Betting: SNB Euro Peg Fix Still Effective', Article by Moneycorp, last update: 13-Sep-11
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