How to win

The art of being a winner is, with many things, down to discipline, knowledge and perseverance. Gamblers tend to fall into sloppy habits and believe they will win instead of knowing they will win. A good bet is a good bet regardless of the outcome. A good bet is one where on average you know you will win e.g. backing heads at 11/10 on the toss of a fair coin is a good bet, although it will be a losing bet 50% of the time. It is only in a persistent losing streak that you should re-exam the credentials of your system.

First and foremost is do your stats. It is easy (and sloppy) to just assume the price in the market is an average. Then buy (or sell) this in the belief that a particular event is going to be higher (or lower) than average. Don't just use your experience to guess a fair value either. People remember the unusual events far more vividly than the mundane. This places to much emphasis on what statisticians call outliers.

Although stats must form the fundamental foundation of any system, you should also never lose sight of what you are actually measuring. For instance, the total number of goals scored in last year's premiership football will tell you what the average goals per game was. A change in the offside rule, alteration in rules governing goalkeepers or a change in the ball characteristics will change this figure.

When you find your edge you should avoid the temptation to lump on. Volatility is your enemy. You should set your stake so even if a series of unfavourable outcomes occur you can still stay in the game, and come back and win (which eventually you must if the edge exists).

Spread betting firms priorities are to make money for shareholders. This does not necessarily mean taking positions in markets they make quotes in. The ideal situation for the firm is to have lots of buyers and sellers canceling each other out. Leaving them with a guaranteed profit. So the more markets they make, the greater their potential profits. This can give the punter an advantage. The punter can specialize in specific markets whereas spread betting firms cannot. In-running betting tests the betting firms ability to make prices. The punter can read the game while the firm is busy taking bets. When the betting firm fails to move the price according to what's happening on the screen the punter can take advantage.

The lazy trader will listen to commentators and follow what they say. This is a mistake. Firstly commentators or experts are not employed to give you betting tips but to give an opinion on an aspect of the game to better involve the viewer. This makes them prone to exaggeration. How many times have we heard qualitative statements like "… this is always a hard fought and competitive match, could be a lot of bookings." To the lazy trader they will abdicate responsibility for making a decision to the commentator and buy bookings. Fortunately for the shrewd trader there are enough lazy traders out there that betting firms will move the price, giving you the chance to make a profit by going against the commentator.

Shortly, we shall be going through individual markets, giving an insight into the different factors to consider and some of the maths behind their valuation.