You have peaks, you have troughs and then you have the current England rugby team. After a disappointing performance against Australia, the bookies predicted that the game against South Africa would be incredibly tight and were “pick ‘em” on the spreads. Buyers of the Springboks would have been partying well into the night after the World Champions inflicted England’s heaviest ever defeat at Twickenham (42-6). It’s been a baptism of fire for new coach Martin Johnson, but at least he has the easy task of preparing his side for the arrival of the All Blacks on Saturday.
The bookmakers currently have New Zealand as 19-22 point favourites in this game and their supporters will be encouraged that the Kiwis have won all of their last 16 away games played in the northern hemisphere. They have done this by an astonishing average points supremacy of just over 27 points and have only conceded two tries in the last seven games, with none conceded in their last four. All Blacks followers on the spreads will take slightly less encouragement that although their side have won all six meetings against England since the 2003 World Cup, their average points supremacy is 21.83 which is covered by the spread.
England must feel like they’ve just been knocked out by Joe Frazier and have to step into the ring with Muhammed Ali, except that there will be 15 angry men dancing and pulling faces. However, spread bettors selling All Blacks supremacy will be more pleased that England have only ever lost thee consecutive matches at Twickenham one time in the professional era (against Ireland, New Zealand and Argentina in 2006). Although the realists who see New Zealand as guaranteed winners will take further confidence from the fact that England have only won three of their last 10 autumn internationals (not including their recent game against the Pacific Islanders), with one of those wins coming against the relative minnows, Samoa.
The other big rugby game for the spread betting public to get their teeth stuck into is Wales against Australia at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff. The Dragons have put up two spirited displays in the past few weeks, only losing by five points to the Springboks and restricting the All Blacks to a 20-point winning margin last weekend. The bookies traders have reacted by giving the Aussies a 3-6 point supremacy spread and sellers would have made a profit in two of the last three meetings between the nations on Welsh soil. In 2006, the sides fought out an epic 29-29 draw, whilst a year previously Wales inflicted their only victory against the Aussies in the last 14 meetings by a 24-22 point margin. However, buyers of Aussie supremacy only have to go back just over a year for when their side won 32-20 in Cardiff in the World Cup to get the spring back in their step.
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Rugby Spreads - 14 Nov 08
The first big game of the season for rugby spread bettors to get their teeth into kicks off at 2.30pm at Twickenham on Saturday, with Australia trying to win only their second game in the Northern Hemisphere against England in the last six contests. The teams are incredibly evenly matched and the bookies reckon Martin Johnson’s side will clinch a win by the tightest of margins (supremacy betting spread 1-3). Looking back at the last 15 games between the sides and spread punters would find it difficult to form a strong supremacy view – particular with games played on this side of the world. In the last 15 games, since the 15-15 draw at Twickenham in 1997, seven have been decided by three or less points, and six of those games have taken place on European soil.
Rugby betting is dependent on many factors and although England spread betting supporters will point to the poor record of the Aussies in recent years against England (not including summer Internationals, they have only won two and drawn two of the 10 played between the countries), the weather will have a major effect. The total points spread is around 40-43 and sellers will be interested to learn that the average points total in the past ten games is 38.1. However, the last three at Twickenham have all been above 40 points, with the highest in recent years being the 32-31 England victory in 2002.
Hot on the heels of England v Australia is Ireland v New Zealand at 5.30pm and the Irish will go into this full of confidence after their 55-0 demolition of Canada last weekend. The bookies have the All Blacks as the 12-15 point favourites and although sellers might be hoping for a miracle, it’s worth remembering that Ireland have never beaten New Zealand, mustering just one draw in 1973. They have performed well against the Southern Hemisphere side in recent years though and spread supremacy sellers will be pleased that the last three margins of defeat have been by 10, 10 and 11 points. Buyers on the other hand will point to the last time these sides faced each other in Dublin; a 45-7 demolition.
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Rugby Spreads - 3 Oct 08
The Super League Grand Final takes place on Saturday at Old Trafford and is a repeat of last season when Leeds thrashed St Helens 33-6. St Helens were favourites last year in the supremacy market and those punters who sold were celebrating for a long time afterwards. Sporting Index currently have the Lancashire side as the favourites again and buyers of their supremacy will be pleased to hear no side has retained the title since St Helens in 2000. The winning margin in the past two finals has been 27 and 22 which will be of interest to those punters buying or selling supremacy. The weather will obviously affect the total points spread, but 39 last year was the highest total in the last seven years.
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Rugby Spreads - 20 Jun 08
England take on New Zealand again on Saturday in the second rugby union test of the series. The All Blacks won the first test last week by a 17-point margin and they are 22-25 point favourites for this one. Buyers of New Zealand supremacy will be encouraged that every time England have played the All Blacks on tour they have always lost the second test by a heavier margin to the first. This doesn’t apply when England are at home, but tradition states that their first test performances are usually their best when in the southern hemisphere.
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Rugby Spreads - 13 Jun 08
Martin Johnson’s first game in charge, although Rob Andrew will be stand-in manager, couldn’t be in a more testing arena, as his players take on New Zealand in Auckland. Buyers of All Blacks supremacy at 16 will be delighted that they have won seven of the past nine meetings between the sides. However, they will be concerned that the last time they tasted defeat to England (15-13 in Wellington in 2003) was the first test of the series. Since then, the All Blacks four victories have been by an average winning margin of 20.5 points.
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Rugby Spread Betting: 30 May 2008
Two of the biggest rivals in English rugby meet at Twickenham on Saturday for the Guinness Premiership Championship Final. Sporting Index Rugby Bets can’t split them at present so buyers of either side’s supremacy at 1 point will be hoping for any kind of victory.
That means you can bet on:
Wasps to win by more than one point
Leicester to win by more than one point
The last time these two sides met in the Final (2005) Wasps registered their third consecutive Zurich trophy with a 39-14 win. However, the Tigers have been in all of the last three finals, losing the first two against Wasps and Sale Sharks, but trouncing Gloucester 44-16 last year.
These two sides have met three times this season, with Leicester holding the slight edge of two wins to one. However, all three games have been very tight and the winning margin has been no bigger than 10 in all three games. As always with these big games, tactics are often based around the weather conditions and buyers of total points at 46 will be pleased to hear that the Tigers last four Premiership games have averaged 52.25 points. Wasps have averaged 50.25. This is further boosted by the last three finals averaging a total of 59.3 points. However, sellers at 43 will be hoping to see a final similar to 2004 when Wasps beat Bath 10-6. In fact, the average points total for the three finals prior to 2005 was 36.3.
'Rugby Spread Betting', Guide by D. Jones, last update: 28-Nov-08
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