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FX Day Trading - 13 October 2011
Another vote for bank recapitalisation
Another day of success for the euro
Sterling survives dubious employment data
Roy Wyre, a Nottingham pensioner, has been fined £75 for littering after he brushed his pet dog in a park.
Mr Wyre felt he had received ruff treatment when he was collared. Police said the fine was entirely fur; he had been trying to flea the scene.
Also in the geddaway category was President Barroso's speech yesterday to the European Parliament, in which he set out a "roadmap [that] charts Europe's way out of the economic crisis".
In a rehash of the most popular platitudes on the subject, there were three elements to his proposal: the recapitalisation of banks; early introduction of a permanent financial stability mechanism; and better observation of fiscal deficit rules by member nations.
For good measure he proposed a ban on bonus and dividend payments until capital ratios are at an appropriate level. More usefully, he also called for another round of stress tests on banks' balance sheets, this time acknowledging that sovereign debt is not risk-free.
The familiar words – especially those relating to recapitalisation – pressed all the right buttons for investors, keeping alive their fond hope that EU leaders are at last serious in their quest for a solution.
President Barroso's roadmap showed the way to another day of gains for the euro. The single currency also received assistance from a second vote in Slovakia's parliament. This time, the prime minister bought opposition support for a "yes" vote on the EFSF extension with a promise to hold an early general election.
While the euro was coasting to another easy win sterling was having a tougher time in FX spread betting. Figures released on Wednesday morning showed UK employment at its highest level in 15 years.
Had it not been for fewer-than-expected new claims for jobseeker's allowance*, the pound would have had an even tougher time.
As it was, financial spread betting investors took half an hour to work out whether or not the numbers were bad, eventually coming to the conclusion that they were not bad enough to warrant punishment for the pound. It starts this morning unchanged on the day against the euro, a cent and a half better against the US dollar and two yen higher.
The dollar's decline was a symptom of euro strength; the yen's retreat was probably no more than the result of investors' boredom with dollar/yen's week-long narrow range.
The opening ecostat shots this morning came from Australia, where unemployment fell to 5.2% and 20.4k new jobs appeared in September. Although positive for the Aussie dollar, the news did not move it far.
In Germany consumer prices rose by an annual 2.6%. Yet to come are Swiss producer and import prices, US weekly jobless claims and trade figures from Britain, Canada and the United States. None of those is guaranteed to distract investors from the recapitalisation of European banks.
* The number of people unemployed is always much higher than the number receiving benefits. Being out of work does not, of itself, qualify an unemployed person for state aid if their partner has a job or they have money in the bank. The number of unemployed and the number of dole claimants do not necessarily move in the same direction (although they tend to do so).
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'Sterling Lower in FX Spread Betting as UK Unemployment Rises', Article by Moneycorp, last update: 13-Oct-11
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